Aban today up 2.7%
srf and litl holding 166-168 so far
srf/litl/aban/hindlever
beauty of buying @ support
support becomes res
u get break even exits..
reason is most declines in a bull market are of corrective nature and have significant overlap
Nifty : can't think of any gr8 reasons to be long unless
I was a bottom fisher buying the discount.
IT is also gaining in strength
Satyam/infy strongest
bank/autos still quite weak.
maybe lower inflation can help.
Here is the bigger problem with nifty.
Broken trendline
Broken swing low
Can take a while before the uptrend returns.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Questions with regard to brokerage
Question:
Why is the brokerage higher for delivery than for fno??
Are the costs of moving stocks in delivery around higher than for moving the futures around??
What is the cost to brokers/nse/sebi??
How much does an institution pay to nse/sebi for fno/spot?
What is the actual base rate??
Leave a comment if you have an answer.
I'm gonna go spam on traderji etc as well :)
Why is the brokerage higher for delivery than for fno??
Are the costs of moving stocks in delivery around higher than for moving the futures around??
What is the cost to brokers/nse/sebi??
How much does an institution pay to nse/sebi for fno/spot?
What is the actual base rate??
Leave a comment if you have an answer.
I'm gonna go spam on traderji etc as well :)
Brokerage rates
i am going to write a small paper on the benefits of lower brokerage for both traders and brokers
its basically about symbiosis.
instead of leeching and sucking a trader dry if a broker gives very very low rates and a trader has a system that can compound money. The brokerage will grow at an insane pace along with account equity
I sent the following msg to my rm who is working with indiabulls
I am going to work the example with rm/indiabulls structures
Raja: if i start with
0.5% delivery brokerage
my account equity = 10 lakhs
becomes 40 lakhs over say x years
net brokerage u get
based on average equity during those x years
15 lakhs * 1000 trades * 0.5%* 2 = 150 lakhs
if you charge me 0.1%
my account equity goes from 10 lakhs
to 12164 lakhs
your net brokerage
600 lakhs * 1000 trades * 0.1% * 2 = 1200 lakhs
the equation becomes twisted if there is a bare min that indiabulls will keep
and then it will share the remainder between rm and the
lets say the bare min that indiabulls wants is 0.1% delivery in that case
the rm will only earn in the first scenario , in the second scenario the rm is not making money
if indiabulls keeps lets say 0.05%
and the remaining brokerage it gives 1/10th to the rm as incentive
then in the first case
the rm gets 10% of 90% of 150 lakhs =13.5 lakhs
in the second case the rm gets 10% of 50% of 1200 lakhs = 60 lakhs..
Anyway i don't have exact ratios cutoffs incentives etc
but i am sure the numbers can be crunched to find exactly how much everyone will make.
I will post a detailed backtest report with diff brokerage rates on 2 systems
and illustrate net brokerage earned etc. later
its basically about symbiosis.
instead of leeching and sucking a trader dry if a broker gives very very low rates and a trader has a system that can compound money. The brokerage will grow at an insane pace along with account equity
I sent the following msg to my rm who is working with indiabulls
I am going to work the example with rm/indiabulls structures
Raja: if i start with
0.5% delivery brokerage
my account equity = 10 lakhs
becomes 40 lakhs over say x years
net brokerage u get
based on average equity during those x years
15 lakhs * 1000 trades * 0.5%* 2 = 150 lakhs
if you charge me 0.1%
my account equity goes from 10 lakhs
to 12164 lakhs
your net brokerage
600 lakhs * 1000 trades * 0.1% * 2 = 1200 lakhs
the equation becomes twisted if there is a bare min that indiabulls will keep
and then it will share the remainder between rm and the
lets say the bare min that indiabulls wants is 0.1% delivery in that case
the rm will only earn in the first scenario , in the second scenario the rm is not making money
if indiabulls keeps lets say 0.05%
and the remaining brokerage it gives 1/10th to the rm as incentive
then in the first case
the rm gets 10% of 90% of 150 lakhs =13.5 lakhs
in the second case the rm gets 10% of 50% of 1200 lakhs = 60 lakhs..
Anyway i don't have exact ratios cutoffs incentives etc
but i am sure the numbers can be crunched to find exactly how much everyone will make.
I will post a detailed backtest report with diff brokerage rates on 2 systems
and illustrate net brokerage earned etc. later
Worst picks in my investing career
Tvs motor 100 exit 90 odd
Dr.red
650/700/750
Cmp 650
Arvind 120(140 exit)/120 100 exit/70 (55 loss)/43(48 exit, 2x quantity) cmp 44 odd
book value 60-70 maybe?
If arvind splits into retail/textiles will result in value unlocking 70-100 rs per share
holding still. waiting for 70-80-100 in 1-2 years.
Up next?
Prithvi?
330/300/277/280/290 , still holding
cmp 280
aftek info 56/66/72 , still holding
cmp 71
gardensilk many years ago (this was not funda i made the mistake of following icicidirect call on this one without proper planning)
reco price 80, cmp 56 (2 years!!! thats massive underperformance and i am still holding book value is 88 i will only exit At or above book value)
If i am missing any of my other horrible trading or investment calls do leave a message.
We learn 10% from our successses and 90% from our failiures.
Making a mistake is what prevents us from making the same mistake again.
The mistake leaves you with a solid memory usually one involving pain and when confronted with a similar scenario your mind will make you imagine that pain before u even act to make that same mistake.
If you keep reducing your mistakes you will ultimately get better.
Just a matter of sticking with the game long enough.
While I seem like an impatient guy when I talk.
When I make up my mind I can have near infinite patience....
I have lots of other investing picks where I have suffered massive drawdowns
But I held on because the fundamentals were intact.
So prithvi/gokex/aftekinfo/litl planning to hold for one year unless fundas turn sour
Lets see where the market takes them.
Dr.red
650/700/750
Cmp 650
Arvind 120(140 exit)/120 100 exit/70 (55 loss)/43(48 exit, 2x quantity) cmp 44 odd
book value 60-70 maybe?
If arvind splits into retail/textiles will result in value unlocking 70-100 rs per share
holding still. waiting for 70-80-100 in 1-2 years.
Up next?
Prithvi?
330/300/277/280/290 , still holding
cmp 280
aftek info 56/66/72 , still holding
cmp 71
gardensilk many years ago (this was not funda i made the mistake of following icicidirect call on this one without proper planning)
reco price 80, cmp 56 (2 years!!! thats massive underperformance and i am still holding book value is 88 i will only exit At or above book value)
If i am missing any of my other horrible trading or investment calls do leave a message.
We learn 10% from our successses and 90% from our failiures.
Making a mistake is what prevents us from making the same mistake again.
The mistake leaves you with a solid memory usually one involving pain and when confronted with a similar scenario your mind will make you imagine that pain before u even act to make that same mistake.
If you keep reducing your mistakes you will ultimately get better.
Just a matter of sticking with the game long enough.
While I seem like an impatient guy when I talk.
When I make up my mind I can have near infinite patience....
I have lots of other investing picks where I have suffered massive drawdowns
But I held on because the fundamentals were intact.
So prithvi/gokex/aftekinfo/litl planning to hold for one year unless fundas turn sour
Lets see where the market takes them.
Technical analaysis
"Aquarius
January 20 - February 17
Surprising new developments in close friendships or love relationships could come your way today, dear Aquarius. Someone might move away, or perhaps move closer to you. This could prove to be a little unsettling at first, but once you get used to the idea you'll be happy. Social events and group activities could also bring unexpected events your way. Be prepared for some bombshells! On the downside: Expect some trouble with machines! "
Lets see. relationships: yes on a borderline relationship which needs to be cemented or broken in the next few days. (1 pt)
Social events hmm nothing there. (0 so far but the day is not over yet)
Be prepared for bombshells , thats easy in the stock market u always have bombshells... (1+ pt but cheesy comment easy to prove right )
Trouble with machines ?? Nope no trouble so far all systems working beautifully *touchwood* (nothing here, well my system hdd has been overactive past few days still haven't figured out which application is causing it.. yahoo 8 always crashes but thats a yahoo 8 specific issue which has plagued my system for months now: 7.5 was just fine.)
So score??
2 out of 4
50:50
Even with all this double talk accuracy only 50%
Also if you take the skeptic view then you would see that this general description could fit a lot of people..
Notice anything similar to the way technical analysts talk????
You say both up and down.
Here is my view about technicals. The money comes from the fundamental filter, its actually the fundamental part of technicals that makes money. The ones who don't see this are the ones constantly trying to turn gold into lead and lead into gold.
Nissan copper was probably a technical buy on listing... just kept breaking up
But people who chase lead and take it above and beyond the value of gold pay a price.. nissan copper listing day 40-120 then back to offer price 33 then lower 25!!!
Target is 50-80 in 2-3 years. (ipo will be used to fund capacity expansions, as and when capacity comes online it would be relfected in earnings and stock price. meaning we would hope that this reflection would be complete by the time the earnings are there even though it could very well happen much sooner or it could even take longer???? is it possible that the stock price might NEVER REFLECT THE ACTUAL VALUE OF THE STOCK?? DOES ANY TECHNICAL MASTER KNOW WHY FUNDAS WORK?? IF THE STOCK PRICE DOES NOT REFLECT THE IDEAL VALUE OF THE STOCK then IT IS A PRIME TAKEOVER CANDIDATE FROM OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR!! or its a candidate for hedgefunds who can come in rip it to shreds and extract book value.)
Today's commentary:
Market opened gap down mind you I am roughly 3.5 hours behind Indian time.
Raja (6/7/2007 6:49:23 AM): index is maintaining 4170 area in spot until that is intact there is hope 4180 is the rising channel 10 pts width allowed. for stoplosses
Raja (6/7/2007 7:29:21 AM): 4240 sl for bears 4170 sl for bulls
Raja (6/7/2007 7:30:40 AM): 4220 profit booking for bulls if u went aggro long and 4180 profit booking for shorts market needs to prove strength by going above 4240 before the positional players will come back u have too many brokern trendlines right now i suspect shorts building 4213-4222 sl 4245
Raja (6/7/2007 7:38:16 AM): my suggestion is short now : 4210-4220 sl 4240 target 4180-4100 but i am not good at shorting nifty so make sure to get a second opinion
Nifty future = 4210 at this time.... (nifty future formed double top and started heading lower...
Raja (6/7/2007 8:05:40 AM): aban strength in a weak market can touch 2850-3000-3100 and what not, targets sent yesterday
Note:(aban was a bullish pick of yesterday @ 2750 , entry basis = 2700+ target 2850-3000-3100, today closed @ 2844 in futures even with a weak market)
Raja (6/7/2007 8:06:52 AM): a lone bull stock like aban is like a lighthouse in the storm lost bulls are attracted towards it every bull wants aban. since bulls are only good at buying a die hard bull will just not short he'll look harder for that bullish opportunity and if u look hard enough there is always a bear with a loss in a bull market even if nifty is down
Raja (6/7/2007 8:11:26 AM): satyam mentioned on blog @ support 464 now 475 syndi @ support 77/76/75 stil holding dunno what hll is doing support @ 192
Note:(aban was suggested as a buy 2700++ (also suggested as a buy 2300 area in a pullback or something)
Raja (6/7/2007 8:11:26 AM): satyam mentioned on blog @ support 464 now 475 syndi @ support 76/75 stil holding dunno what hll is doing
Raja (6/7/2007 8:24:54 AM): nifty sl @ 4213 nf break even for bears u don't want to lose extra pts in any discount reducing short covering rallies
Raja (6/7/2007 8:25:12 AM): litl will touch 167 leave limit order to reenter long in delivery
Note:At this time litl was at 174..
Raja (6/7/2007 8:25:43 AM): also 165 srf = reentry
Raja (6/7/2007 8:28:00 AM): Retracements :154.55-185.7 0.236:178.349 0.382:173.801 0.5 :170.125 0.618:166.449 0.764:161.901 i have my limit order 167 but no guarantees maybe 170 can hold?? dunno
Raja (6/7/2007 8:36:22 AM): trailing stop 4205 for bears. don't give away money to this market if we go up discount reduction will kill u if we go down your targets are 4180-4140-4100
Raja (6/7/2007 8:41:00 AM): litl few days ago good news top u want to see how selling good news works?? watch suzlon next 3 days sometimes good news tops can take 1-2 days for distribution depending on how big the news is and how crazy the public is 9:1 the news is already discounted and in the price and any excess rallies are speculative
Raja (6/7/2007 8:43:58 AM): lichsgfin another strong stock in a weak market these should be your picks for next nifty leg up they will fly up the most
Raja (6/7/2007 8:55:38 AM): nifty we will also buy but only after all weak hands are out weak hands have sl 4180/4140 nifty which is the obvious level. i want to buy 4100 sl 4090
Raja (6/7/2007 8:56:58 AM): 167 litl milega??
Raja (6/7/2007 9:00:54 AM): System: Trend follower Stock Name: LITL-I BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2 S1:167.10 S2:169.00 R1:179.44 R2:187.05 Target1:172.327 Target2:176.135 Target3:180.705 SL1:165.473 SL2:160.903
Raja (6/7/2007 9:27:35 AM): litl surgical strike 167-169 buy zone day low 168 area now 173
LITL dropped to support zone 167-169 in futures. and gave T1 as an intraday scalp trade. maybe in 2-3 days it will give 176+
Raja (6/7/2007 9:41:47 AM): 4180 target reached cover half??? rest 4140-4110?? or be greedy?
Nifty closed @ 4179.5
THAT MY DEAR FRIENDS IS THE ONLY REALITY (addressed to mr. sarvesh :))
THE LTP
THE CLOSE
LIVE WITH IT
Below 4170 4140/4100/4054 etc allowed.
but even in this weak market I can find bullish picks that will make money to the upside
technicals are an illusion; the driving force is fundamental in nature.
technicals only tell you what is happening.
fundamentals tell you why it is happening and how long it can continue.
litl 2010-2011; Will be worth 300-600 rs.
Write it down and remember me then..
Prithvi short term weakness?? It will be at 400-500 next year unless some fundamental disasters happen :)
Prithvi Heading to eod trendline, spotted by dhiraj , he finally gave me a picture that fits his name , the patient support is 275 , i'll buy 100 more there to complete my 1000.
(again notice the if/then else, the stock market is about probabilities and risk management)
Drawdowns are part of the game of investing
No risk, no reward.
That is the other reality of the markets.
People who are afraid to risk only talk talk talk.
They don't trade.
I bought prithvi
bought gokex
without any regard for index technicals.
prithvi is pure p.e/p.e.g pick
gokex is also p.e/p.e.g/leading exporter of garments
I can't always be right prithvi is one of those stocks
that just keeeeeps oooonnn stagnating.
you want a stoploss for investments??? stoploss 200 rs :)
if you bought at 300
target 400/500 in one year, sl 200
risk is 100 rs reward is 100/200 rs..
from a technical perspective i can justify just about any trade!!
In fact if i remember correctly even last time i reccomended prithvi @ 330+
IT has severely underperformed the markets. It only hit 410-420 area and not 448 as I had targetted.
Every stock has cycles of short/medium/long term under performance and out performance.
Contrary to popular belief stock prices do not go to + infinity and -infinity
Which is what the basic theory of trend following suggests..
Warren buffet, peter lynch, soros
Some of the biggest names in investing are all fundamental analysts+contrarians.
If you know what a stock is worth you can buy on the way down with a lot more confidence and still sleep easily
Star another good news short 2 days ago trashed today by 5%
after 5-10 hours of distribution.
Keep an eye on suzlon will also face profit booking within 5 hours (5 trading hours)
Litl faced profit booking @ 186... few days ago after good news and retested the support level I had given on the way up itself: 167
January 20 - February 17
Surprising new developments in close friendships or love relationships could come your way today, dear Aquarius. Someone might move away, or perhaps move closer to you. This could prove to be a little unsettling at first, but once you get used to the idea you'll be happy. Social events and group activities could also bring unexpected events your way. Be prepared for some bombshells! On the downside: Expect some trouble with machines! "
Lets see. relationships: yes on a borderline relationship which needs to be cemented or broken in the next few days. (1 pt)
Social events hmm nothing there. (0 so far but the day is not over yet)
Be prepared for bombshells , thats easy in the stock market u always have bombshells... (1+ pt but cheesy comment easy to prove right )
Trouble with machines ?? Nope no trouble so far all systems working beautifully *touchwood* (nothing here, well my system hdd has been overactive past few days still haven't figured out which application is causing it.. yahoo 8 always crashes but thats a yahoo 8 specific issue which has plagued my system for months now: 7.5 was just fine.)
So score??
2 out of 4
50:50
Even with all this double talk accuracy only 50%
Also if you take the skeptic view then you would see that this general description could fit a lot of people..
Notice anything similar to the way technical analysts talk????
You say both up and down.
Here is my view about technicals. The money comes from the fundamental filter, its actually the fundamental part of technicals that makes money. The ones who don't see this are the ones constantly trying to turn gold into lead and lead into gold.
Nissan copper was probably a technical buy on listing... just kept breaking up
But people who chase lead and take it above and beyond the value of gold pay a price.. nissan copper listing day 40-120 then back to offer price 33 then lower 25!!!
Target is 50-80 in 2-3 years. (ipo will be used to fund capacity expansions, as and when capacity comes online it would be relfected in earnings and stock price. meaning we would hope that this reflection would be complete by the time the earnings are there even though it could very well happen much sooner or it could even take longer???? is it possible that the stock price might NEVER REFLECT THE ACTUAL VALUE OF THE STOCK?? DOES ANY TECHNICAL MASTER KNOW WHY FUNDAS WORK?? IF THE STOCK PRICE DOES NOT REFLECT THE IDEAL VALUE OF THE STOCK then IT IS A PRIME TAKEOVER CANDIDATE FROM OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR!! or its a candidate for hedgefunds who can come in rip it to shreds and extract book value.)
Today's commentary:
Market opened gap down mind you I am roughly 3.5 hours behind Indian time.
Raja (6/7/2007 6:49:23 AM): index is maintaining 4170 area in spot until that is intact there is hope 4180 is the rising channel 10 pts width allowed. for stoplosses
Raja (6/7/2007 7:29:21 AM): 4240 sl for bears 4170 sl for bulls
Raja (6/7/2007 7:30:40 AM): 4220 profit booking for bulls if u went aggro long and 4180 profit booking for shorts market needs to prove strength by going above 4240 before the positional players will come back u have too many brokern trendlines right now i suspect shorts building 4213-4222 sl 4245
Raja (6/7/2007 7:38:16 AM): my suggestion is short now : 4210-4220 sl 4240 target 4180-4100 but i am not good at shorting nifty so make sure to get a second opinion
Nifty future = 4210 at this time.... (nifty future formed double top and started heading lower...
Raja (6/7/2007 8:05:40 AM): aban strength in a weak market can touch 2850-3000-3100 and what not, targets sent yesterday
Note:(aban was a bullish pick of yesterday @ 2750 , entry basis = 2700+ target 2850-3000-3100, today closed @ 2844 in futures even with a weak market)
Raja (6/7/2007 8:06:52 AM): a lone bull stock like aban is like a lighthouse in the storm lost bulls are attracted towards it every bull wants aban. since bulls are only good at buying a die hard bull will just not short he'll look harder for that bullish opportunity and if u look hard enough there is always a bear with a loss in a bull market even if nifty is down
Raja (6/7/2007 8:11:26 AM): satyam mentioned on blog @ support 464 now 475 syndi @ support 77/76/75 stil holding dunno what hll is doing support @ 192
Note:(aban was suggested as a buy 2700++ (also suggested as a buy 2300 area in a pullback or something)
Raja (6/7/2007 8:11:26 AM): satyam mentioned on blog @ support 464 now 475 syndi @ support 76/75 stil holding dunno what hll is doing
Raja (6/7/2007 8:24:54 AM): nifty sl @ 4213 nf break even for bears u don't want to lose extra pts in any discount reducing short covering rallies
Raja (6/7/2007 8:25:12 AM): litl will touch 167 leave limit order to reenter long in delivery
Note:At this time litl was at 174..
Raja (6/7/2007 8:25:43 AM): also 165 srf = reentry
Raja (6/7/2007 8:28:00 AM): Retracements :154.55-185.7 0.236:178.349 0.382:173.801 0.5 :170.125 0.618:166.449 0.764:161.901 i have my limit order 167 but no guarantees maybe 170 can hold?? dunno
Raja (6/7/2007 8:36:22 AM): trailing stop 4205 for bears. don't give away money to this market if we go up discount reduction will kill u if we go down your targets are 4180-4140-4100
Raja (6/7/2007 8:41:00 AM): litl few days ago good news top u want to see how selling good news works?? watch suzlon next 3 days sometimes good news tops can take 1-2 days for distribution depending on how big the news is and how crazy the public is 9:1 the news is already discounted and in the price and any excess rallies are speculative
Raja (6/7/2007 8:43:58 AM): lichsgfin another strong stock in a weak market these should be your picks for next nifty leg up they will fly up the most
Raja (6/7/2007 8:55:38 AM): nifty we will also buy but only after all weak hands are out weak hands have sl 4180/4140 nifty which is the obvious level. i want to buy 4100 sl 4090
Raja (6/7/2007 8:56:58 AM): 167 litl milega??
Raja (6/7/2007 9:00:54 AM): System: Trend follower Stock Name: LITL-I BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2 S1:167.10 S2:169.00 R1:179.44 R2:187.05 Target1:172.327 Target2:176.135 Target3:180.705 SL1:165.473 SL2:160.903
Raja (6/7/2007 9:27:35 AM): litl surgical strike 167-169 buy zone day low 168 area now 173
LITL dropped to support zone 167-169 in futures. and gave T1 as an intraday scalp trade. maybe in 2-3 days it will give 176+
Raja (6/7/2007 9:41:47 AM): 4180 target reached cover half??? rest 4140-4110?? or be greedy?
Nifty closed @ 4179.5
THAT MY DEAR FRIENDS IS THE ONLY REALITY (addressed to mr. sarvesh :))
THE LTP
THE CLOSE
LIVE WITH IT
Below 4170 4140/4100/4054 etc allowed.
but even in this weak market I can find bullish picks that will make money to the upside
technicals are an illusion; the driving force is fundamental in nature.
technicals only tell you what is happening.
fundamentals tell you why it is happening and how long it can continue.
litl 2010-2011; Will be worth 300-600 rs.
Write it down and remember me then..
Prithvi short term weakness?? It will be at 400-500 next year unless some fundamental disasters happen :)
Prithvi Heading to eod trendline, spotted by dhiraj , he finally gave me a picture that fits his name , the patient support is 275 , i'll buy 100 more there to complete my 1000.
(again notice the if/then else, the stock market is about probabilities and risk management)
Drawdowns are part of the game of investing
No risk, no reward.
That is the other reality of the markets.
People who are afraid to risk only talk talk talk.
They don't trade.
I bought prithvi
bought gokex
without any regard for index technicals.
prithvi is pure p.e/p.e.g pick
gokex is also p.e/p.e.g/leading exporter of garments
I can't always be right prithvi is one of those stocks
that just keeeeeps oooonnn stagnating.
you want a stoploss for investments??? stoploss 200 rs :)
if you bought at 300
target 400/500 in one year, sl 200
risk is 100 rs reward is 100/200 rs..
from a technical perspective i can justify just about any trade!!
In fact if i remember correctly even last time i reccomended prithvi @ 330+
IT has severely underperformed the markets. It only hit 410-420 area and not 448 as I had targetted.
Every stock has cycles of short/medium/long term under performance and out performance.
Contrary to popular belief stock prices do not go to + infinity and -infinity
Which is what the basic theory of trend following suggests..
Warren buffet, peter lynch, soros
Some of the biggest names in investing are all fundamental analysts+contrarians.
If you know what a stock is worth you can buy on the way down with a lot more confidence and still sleep easily
Star another good news short 2 days ago trashed today by 5%
after 5-10 hours of distribution.
Keep an eye on suzlon will also face profit booking within 5 hours (5 trading hours)
Litl faced profit booking @ 186... few days ago after good news and retested the support level I had given on the way up itself: 167
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Gokex analysis
As I was saying earlier i believe, this market can offer value if one looks around hard enough.
So Lets start with gokex: a stock pick with p.e.g of <1
( it seems common theme in my picks lately is $ worries, exporters)
How i analyze stocks...
If you can think in this fashion.
Then drop me a line. We can split up work and find good picks both on technicals and fundamentals.
News: Fy07 results are out
Valuations:
fy07 actual 20 rs
cmp = roughly 10x trailing
fy08e 9.4 x earnings
book value of stock fy06 was 200
growth rate 15% annual
last 2-3 years
sustainable trend
capacity expansions comissioned
india's largest garment exporter
valuations compelling
growth momentum intact
fy08e = 24.99
fy09e = 31.46
by icicidirect
tad high estimates
worst case looking at 15% returns in one year
fair value suggests a target p.e of 15, 15*20 fair value target of 300??
Icicidirect suggests 320 p.e/peer valuations
best case looking for 20-40%
if stock moves up to 10-15x 25 next year
in line with peers like bombay fashion and keval kiran
debt/equity is very very low
0.22
hence the higher p.e multiple vs other textile midcaps like vtl and alok
this company is mostly debt free
looks like a bargain to me considering its leadership position
margins are a bit on lower side only 7-10%
ronw is 20%
acceptable.
Technicals
has broken a downtrendline
is forming a pole and flag
GOKEX, Analysis Date:5/31/2007
Close/cmp:217.05
Swing : Up=Buy ( 3.900% sensitivity)
T1:238.962 T2:255.12
T3:281.482 1xR:255.4
ImpulseTargetZone:297.64-324.002
SwingHigh:234.0 CMP:217.1
SwingLow:195.0 SLPivot:212.6
2xAtr14Stop:20.9104
Narrowsl:212.60
WideSl:199.33
TrailingSL:213.40
Lower Chan:218.813 Upper Chan:248.371
ResLine:240.206
Look to buy around 212 possible flat correction lows
with sl 195 and target 238/255/281 if you are a technician
If you are an investor then just buy and play for the upper targets 255-281-300
all levels on weekly closing basis
Note icicidirect 1 year target is 312
my technical target zone coincides with the funda
target proposed by icicidirect
297-324 if we get a full 5 wave rally
w3/wc which is minimum anticipation after a sharp pole/flag
target is 255
within 2 months.
commit 5% of equity
risk involved is
17 pts, round up to complete 10% 20 pt risk
reward is
26/43 pts
Trading rules
buy @ 212
use 2x atr chandelier stop.
So Lets start with gokex: a stock pick with p.e.g of <1
( it seems common theme in my picks lately is $ worries, exporters)
How i analyze stocks...
If you can think in this fashion.
Then drop me a line. We can split up work and find good picks both on technicals and fundamentals.
News: Fy07 results are out
Valuations:
fy07 actual 20 rs
cmp = roughly 10x trailing
fy08e 9.4 x earnings
book value of stock fy06 was 200
growth rate 15% annual
last 2-3 years
sustainable trend
capacity expansions comissioned
india's largest garment exporter
valuations compelling
growth momentum intact
fy08e = 24.99
fy09e = 31.46
by icicidirect
tad high estimates
worst case looking at 15% returns in one year
fair value suggests a target p.e of 15, 15*20 fair value target of 300??
Icicidirect suggests 320 p.e/peer valuations
best case looking for 20-40%
if stock moves up to 10-15x 25 next year
in line with peers like bombay fashion and keval kiran
debt/equity is very very low
0.22
hence the higher p.e multiple vs other textile midcaps like vtl and alok
this company is mostly debt free
looks like a bargain to me considering its leadership position
margins are a bit on lower side only 7-10%
ronw is 20%
acceptable.
Technicals
has broken a downtrendline
is forming a pole and flag
GOKEX, Analysis Date:5/31/2007
Close/cmp:217.05
Swing : Up=Buy ( 3.900% sensitivity)
T1:238.962 T2:255.12
T3:281.482 1xR:255.4
ImpulseTargetZone:297.64-324.002
SwingHigh:234.0 CMP:217.1
SwingLow:195.0 SLPivot:212.6
2xAtr14Stop:20.9104
Narrowsl:212.60
WideSl:199.33
TrailingSL:213.40
Lower Chan:218.813 Upper Chan:248.371
ResLine:240.206
Look to buy around 212 possible flat correction lows
with sl 195 and target 238/255/281 if you are a technician
If you are an investor then just buy and play for the upper targets 255-281-300
all levels on weekly closing basis
Note icicidirect 1 year target is 312
my technical target zone coincides with the funda
target proposed by icicidirect
297-324 if we get a full 5 wave rally
w3/wc which is minimum anticipation after a sharp pole/flag
target is 255
within 2 months.
commit 5% of equity
risk involved is
17 pts, round up to complete 10% 20 pt risk
reward is
26/43 pts
Trading rules
buy @ 212
use 2x atr chandelier stop.
Wolfe wave
Friend wanted example
So i give u 2 examples in one picture
Google for details.
Currently wolfe wave target is 4100 or so
I have never tested wolfe wave in isolation, no idea how accurate or useful it is.
i usually use wolfe wave whipsaw along with an elliot wave count.
For every one wolfe wave that works i am sure i can find 2-3 that don't
The key is that the risk is insanely tiny .
its usually <=1x atr
target is usually 2-4x atr
You could also try filtering by reward/risk to decide which ones to take
I'm going to do a very thorough test of all wave patterns on all timeframes
once i arrive in delhi.
Goal is to run something that can scan entire nse for any pattern on any timeframe of any size in real time and provide a reward/risk/probability estimate..
If there is any such thing as a useful pattern in the stock market for trading.
I'll find it :) within seconds of the pattern forming.
imagine entering every 1-2-3-4-5/a/b/c (zigzag/flat with reward=10 times risk :)
even with 20% accuracy thats a money making system
For now i continue to filter my technical patterns with an underlying fundamental view.
Vision: nifty 4600 before end of year. sl for view. 3556
"problem with nifty is
i know the following levels will be touched
4100-4400-4600-4900
this year
I just don't know in which order :))"
One possible order that makes a bit of sense given recent weakness.
4100-4400-4640-4400-4900
S&P CNX Nifty, Analysis Date:6/5/2007
Close/cmp:4284.65
Swing : Up=Buy ( 4.100% sensitivity)
T1:4391.22 T2:4642.55
T3:5052.61 1xR:4454.65
ImpulseTargetZone:5303.94-5714.01
SwingHigh:4,217.9 CMP:4,284.6
SwingLow:3,617.0 SLPivot:3,981.1
Narrowsl:3,981.15
WideSl:3,834.36
The power of dreams...
Lets work backwards
3556 is the ultimate swing low for nifty's current move.
At what price point does it make sense to even try buying nifty if we have a longer term horizon?
(considering odds 50:50 we want reward=risk)
Lets look at my first target which is logical above 3556 (not just me, elwave agrees!!)
x-3556 = 4640-x
2x=4640+3556
x=4098
the second target should be a 2x risk target
2*(x-3556)=5052-x
3x=12164
x=4054
Hence my level 4100 is derived, using the massively power processing power of the right brain while i slept.
Without actually working forward through the steps. But this is the way i usually work my reward/risk when I am awake.
Thats called intuition.
I just did the same thing while i slept a few weeks ago.
The steps have to be verified after the answer has already been computed.
Of course acting on hope is the easiest way to get butchered in the market :)
So either use options with a view to hold till expiry with predetermined risk or follow a trading system.
max risk on option trades is 2/6/10% of equity, and since entire option amount bought is usually at risk if you follow my levels , work out the risk before you start dreaming about the rewards.
I checked elwave, It has the same view
Check out the screenshot.
Currently the reward/risk is not favorable for buying at all on nifty.
The elwave analysis will become favorable once we get a bit more of a dip.
So final analysis
for investors
buy 4098-4054
sl 3950 (exit below 3950, reenter above or use options) narrow
wide sl for delivery investors? 3556
target 4600-4900. (4640-5052)
Done.
Levels will not change for next 3 months
Regardless of what market does
Another area which allow entry based on pure reward/risk
2x=4400+3556
x=3978
Just in case you are a mega bear.
Nifty 4240-4180-4140-4100, hll hedge for bears.
Negative beta, safe bet in a weak market
close to support
consider 192 critical.
sl 190 should suffice.
Levels given in an old post.
Strength is above 198-199-200 etc.
should touch 210-220
if 192 continues to hold.
As for nifty the angle of attack on the lower channel is damn sharp
if t2 4180 breaks
t3 4094 opens with interference from 4140 old low.
Go short on something that is doomed and hedge with hll long.
Should be a profitable strategy in theory in a down market.
Its starting to look like 4100 will be visited before 4400-4600-4900
So it might be prudent to lay off the nifty buying for a while.
If you are already long? as i know some people are near 4180. Cut and run below 4170 spot
close to support
consider 192 critical.
sl 190 should suffice.
Levels given in an old post.
Strength is above 198-199-200 etc.
should touch 210-220
if 192 continues to hold.
As for nifty the angle of attack on the lower channel is damn sharp
if t2 4180 breaks
t3 4094 opens with interference from 4140 old low.
Go short on something that is doomed and hedge with hll long.
Should be a profitable strategy in theory in a down market.
Its starting to look like 4100 will be visited before 4400-4600-4900
So it might be prudent to lay off the nifty buying for a while.
If you are already long? as i know some people are near 4180. Cut and run below 4170 spot
Nifty Diagnosis
4180 rising channel
4140 old low
check picture for details
If you are short these are your targets
4240 is the stoploss.
If you are a bull you might look to buy near supports
but sl has to be under 4140 old low
If you are a mega bear then you are probably already dreaming 3990 and 3750 and 3650 and 3556 :)
right?
So levels won't matter there.
Just keep in mind above 4240 nifty we are in breakout mode on the monthly charts.
Gann/Swing Trading setups
Already gave details earlier but its easier to understand pictures
a) trendline break/channel break/1x swing break
b) pullback/retest
c) short new lows with a lower high
need a broken rising channel/trendline break to initiate the setup
I prefer a broken channel
So this setup was initiated on hourly below 428x with the hns
on eod it will be initiated on first eod rally after 418x/4140 is broken
Check out the example pictures
Nifty 50, 50:50
Few problems with rising trend
trendline broken 3600-3990
Rising channel intact 4180
swing trend/sl intact 4140
strong stocks which i want to be long on
aban,mcdowell,patni,relcap,srf
litl in a bit more of a decline closer to 166-170
sl remains 160
problem with nifty is
i know the following levels will be touched
4100-4400-4600-4900
this year
I just don't know in which order :))
p.s emotional people use the word i feel.
intuitive people tend to use the phrase i know but its all connected.
Intuition comes from experience. experience is sorted in the mind through both emotions/logic.
pt remains
I don't know what comes next in nifty. so i will not trade it.
srf i just had a dream 220. Of course i am not entirely crazy :). I booked some at 174 today. just in case srf stays rangebound.
will look to buy aban/relcap/mcdowell in declines as well because they look very strong.
I think the action is going to remain stock sepcific mostly in midcaps
Nifty is fairly valued.
p.e.g of 1
a sustained move below 4240 opens 4180-4140-4030-3990-3965 etc
sustaining above 4240 reopens 4350-4400-4672-4900
expect choppy action in nifty over next few days.
trendline broken 3600-3990
Rising channel intact 4180
swing trend/sl intact 4140
strong stocks which i want to be long on
aban,mcdowell,patni,relcap,srf
litl in a bit more of a decline closer to 166-170
sl remains 160
problem with nifty is
i know the following levels will be touched
4100-4400-4600-4900
this year
I just don't know in which order :))
p.s emotional people use the word i feel.
intuitive people tend to use the phrase i know but its all connected.
Intuition comes from experience. experience is sorted in the mind through both emotions/logic.
pt remains
I don't know what comes next in nifty. so i will not trade it.
srf i just had a dream 220. Of course i am not entirely crazy :). I booked some at 174 today. just in case srf stays rangebound.
will look to buy aban/relcap/mcdowell in declines as well because they look very strong.
I think the action is going to remain stock sepcific mostly in midcaps
Nifty is fairly valued.
p.e.g of 1
a sustained move below 4240 opens 4180-4140-4030-3990-3965 etc
sustaining above 4240 reopens 4350-4400-4672-4900
expect choppy action in nifty over next few days.
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Keep an eye on LT 2071 for clues
Lt t1 2071
probably one of the best bets in infra sector.
Edelweiss target was 14% above 1945 on good results.
How crazy is this market??
2476-2497-3194?
:)
Stocks like lt will help to decide if nifty can also do
4400-4600-4900
probably one of the best bets in infra sector.
Edelweiss target was 14% above 1945 on good results.
How crazy is this market??
2476-2497-3194?
:)
Stocks like lt will help to decide if nifty can also do
4400-4600-4900
Reason to worry below 4240
Sort of a big hns pattern neckline 4240
4330 top area
90 pts target = ?
hmm
4150?
Right near support zone 4140.
Wonder if we'll break down and test support.
If we do, its just a gr8 buying opportunity. bulls are not gonna give up so soon as they.
Be lightweight. keep an eye on both sides of the market.
Switch to a counter trend system for a few weeks. might make more than the trend followers.
If you are a bear, market actually looks shortable for 4140 sl 4310
weakness will persist below 4285-4296
If a hns were to work perfectly every time
Then chartists would be the richest people on earth.
Long above 4240, short below
90 pt move on either side possible
I still believe we will touch 4900 by diwaili this year.
Just need to hold 3980 for that view.
4330 top area
90 pts target = ?
hmm
4150?
Right near support zone 4140.
Wonder if we'll break down and test support.
If we do, its just a gr8 buying opportunity. bulls are not gonna give up so soon as they.
Be lightweight. keep an eye on both sides of the market.
Switch to a counter trend system for a few weeks. might make more than the trend followers.
If you are a bear, market actually looks shortable for 4140 sl 4310
weakness will persist below 4285-4296
If a hns were to work perfectly every time
Then chartists would be the richest people on earth.
Long above 4240, short below
90 pt move on either side possible
I still believe we will touch 4900 by diwaili this year.
Just need to hold 3980 for that view.
Nifty
i have a bunch of nifty levels 4100/4400/4600/4900 u know why i like these levels?
What? You don't know ? Then you don't me well enough and you don't deserve to know!!
:)
the order of the levels
is the problem.
As for technical supports 4180/4140 4030/3980 4240-4295 also important.
juggle them till u can find a solution.
u have to find the path of least resistance from present price to 4900
which structures can get us to 4900??
4400 -4100 4600-4900?
4600-4100-4900?
4100-4400-4100-4600-4400-4900???
I don't know.
will post a trade set up on nifty if i see one.
Stock specific
value = p.e.g<1
Look around i am sure u can find some value hidden somewhere
considering nifty is now entering p.e.g>1. Its in speculative phase/w5
I have still not found one person.
Who will volunteer a good midcap pick to me AND give the proper funda details.
Punters love to give picks but they don't back them up with fundas
and i don't buy stocks in delivery without knowing the fundas.
Just goes to show the horrible company I keep.
Need to work on that.
Dr. uday's favorite picks.
Nagarfert/ttml/rnrl
Only issue is while my dear friend has gr8 picks because he manages to find news which is not discounted by the market time and again, he doesn't seem to speak my language of numbers.
I want simple stuff
cagr
p.e
p.e.g
fy08e
fy09e
bv
Need long term stories.
Next sector I am eyeing is clinical trials in India
stuff like jubilant/vimta labs. Still expensive on the valuations side p.e of near 20++ ?? But on p.e.g vimta is approaching value zone? approaching sub 1x p.e.g levels so there is definitely some buying to be done in this segment.
cagr atleast 30% over next decade as this segment picks up.
What? You don't know ? Then you don't me well enough and you don't deserve to know!!
:)
the order of the levels
is the problem.
As for technical supports 4180/4140 4030/3980 4240-4295 also important.
juggle them till u can find a solution.
u have to find the path of least resistance from present price to 4900
which structures can get us to 4900??
4400 -4100 4600-4900?
4600-4100-4900?
4100-4400-4100-4600-4400-4900???
I don't know.
will post a trade set up on nifty if i see one.
Stock specific
value = p.e.g<1
Look around i am sure u can find some value hidden somewhere
considering nifty is now entering p.e.g>1. Its in speculative phase/w5
I have still not found one person.
Who will volunteer a good midcap pick to me AND give the proper funda details.
Punters love to give picks but they don't back them up with fundas
and i don't buy stocks in delivery without knowing the fundas.
Just goes to show the horrible company I keep.
Need to work on that.
Dr. uday's favorite picks.
Nagarfert/ttml/rnrl
Only issue is while my dear friend has gr8 picks because he manages to find news which is not discounted by the market time and again, he doesn't seem to speak my language of numbers.
I want simple stuff
cagr
p.e
p.e.g
fy08e
fy09e
bv
Need long term stories.
Next sector I am eyeing is clinical trials in India
stuff like jubilant/vimta labs. Still expensive on the valuations side p.e of near 20++ ?? But on p.e.g vimta is approaching value zone? approaching sub 1x p.e.g levels so there is definitely some buying to be done in this segment.
cagr atleast 30% over next decade as this segment picks up.
Monday, June 04, 2007
Prithvi
Snippets from research reports/ mails in Bharat's gr8 group
Err.
google for it.
Select group. high quality reports.
# Prithvi Information Solutions (Prithvi) posted results considerably above expectations on the revenue growth front (26% qoq), but was slightly below expectation on PAT at 11% qoq. The profitability was impacted due to salary increases to its onsite staff in this quarter and a higher than expected forex impact on account of translation losses.
# For FY07 the company’s performance was a strong growth of 68% in revenues, 100% growth in EBITDA and inspite of the forex hit in this year, the company posted profitability growth inline with revenues at 69% yoy.
# We expect the company to post organic revenue CAGR of 25.7% over FY08-FY09E and a PAT CAGR of 26.6% over the same period. We reiterate our Buy recommendation with a revised 12-month target price of Rs.445, at an P/E of 8x FY08E fully diluted earnings, considering FCCB dilution). We believe the stock is the cheapest available IT stock and has considerable scope for a PE re-ating, as the company continues to perform.
PBL
"
Result Snapshot
Prithvi Information’s Q4 revenue, at Rs 2,592m, rose 30% qoq and beat our
estimates. However, at the EBITDA and PAT level, the company has once
again disappointed the street, as its margins slipped 130bp and 170bp
respectively.
The EBITDA margin declined due to the hike in salaries whereas the lower
PAT margins stemmed from the increase in loss on account of rupee
appreciation.
Maintain a long-term BUY, with a price target of Rs 514 (6x FY08E earnings)."
AngelBroking
"Outlook and Valuations
Prithvi has out-performed our FY2007 topline estimates by a decent 6.3%, while on the
bottomline front, the out-performance has been to the tune of 2.4%. On the EBITDA
margins front, the performance has been spot-on, with eventual margins just 2bps lower
than our estimates.
The management has declared an interim dividend of 20% (Rs 2 per share), giving a
dividend yield of 0.7%. Going forward, we expect Prithvi to record a CAGR of 27.5% in
topline between FY2007 and FY2009, while the CAGR in bottomline is expected to come in
at 30.8%, mainly on account of margin expansion of around 50bps each year during this
period.
At the CMP, the stock trades at a P/E of 4.3x FY2009E fully diluted EPS, making it one of
the cheapest stocks in the entire IT sector. We maintain a BUY on the stock, with a 12-
month target price of Rs 485."
I bought hexaware like crazy in fy05 when I started investing
I had something like 1000 shares of hexaware near 450 :), sold near 600 got out wayyyy too early (thats like 120 current prices)
Now I have almost 1000 of prithvi.
I love this counter.
Of course rupee appreciation risks ladeda
rupee could go to 36.
the profits of the company would also drop by 20% or so.
Even then lets say instead of next year eps of 55 we get only eps of 40 (30% below estimates)
still 1 year target of 400 at 10x earnings considering u have to pay 15x fy08 for other midcap IT RIGHT NOW...
OTHER MIDCAP IT ARE SITTING AT TARGET PRICES
U know why?? whatever is in fashion, whatever has already been discovered is usually fairly priced or over priced.
You need to find the next big story if you want to make mega bucks in investing.
Bought more ON DIP to 290 which is my value zone based on 50% retracement of last swing.
NOT ON BREAKOUT @ 304+ or 320 (thats where i booked partial intraday profits last time)
Prithvi has exposure to the U.S. any significant slow down could impact the stock adversely. Future plans include inorganic growth+increasing offshoring+europe etc.
Sounds good to me.
For those who don't understand why prithvi is available at such cheap rates??
repeat after me
market is crazy
market is crazy
market is crazy
market is crazy
(other possibility is market is actually smart??? fccb, massive equity dilution and what not.. but then all these research reports are crazy.. take your pick)
"angel broking:Prithvi made an issue of zero coupon foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) of US$
50mn to Lehman Brothers Europe, London at a conversion price of Rs 469.13 per share
(conversion rate of Rs 44.09 per US$ taken). The bonds are due for redemption in 2012
and will be listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. The proceeds of the FCCB will mainly
be utilized for the purpose of acquisitions. It should be noted that Prithvi has already
identified companies for acquisition and it is in the final few stages of closure. The
management expects to make an announcement on this during the current quarter. The
equity dilution on account of the FCCB conversion will be to the tune of around 26%."
ambit capital
"Attractive valuations
Valuations at P/E of 5.4x FY07E and 5.3x FY08E earnings are at a discount of
nearly 55% to mid cap sector average multiples on FY08E basis. On other
parameters too at EV/Sales of 0.7x and P/BV of 1.3x FY07E earnings the stock
is relatively undervalued. We see significant room for a re-rating on this count
as the company continues to perform.
The company’s raising a $50mn FCCB convertible at Rs.469, a premium of
greater than 40% on the date of issue, lends further confidence to our
discounted valuation argument.
High cash per share of Rs.123 on fully diluted equity considering FCCB dilution
further provides cushion to our valuation.
We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY with a 12-month target price of
Rs.426 at a P/E of 8x FY08E earnings. We see possible upsides to our target
price on account of inorganic growth triggers or higher than anticipated revenue
growth."
the average person has an IQ of 100
the average IQ of a crowd is 50.....
A mob is dumber than its individual components.
Much dumber.
Reminds me of a game kids used to play in middle school in Delhi.
WWF Royal rumble. Kids in our class would just beat someone up for no good reason. Nothing serious just mild punching/kicking.
The only way to save yourself?? Point the crowd to someone else. If the crowd finds someone else to beat up before you start getting bashed you are safe.
Prithvi check shareholding pattern.
The fii/mf holding is still damn low.
aftekinfosys was the same way near 56... Then it hit 84-90 on one fine day in 2006 and morgan stanely was buying at 80.
This was well after the buy call was given. Not even my call exactly, it was a valuenotes call. I just forwarded technical levels.
Is morgan stanley stupid?? Nope they are also investing for the future they will get 160 if they hold for 2-3 years , especially if 20-30% cagr continues.
So buyyyyyy
prithvi/aftek, prithvi/aftek
Don't go buying 3iinfo for p.e of 27x fy08 and 20xfy09
WHY DO YOU WANT TO PAY 15-20x FY09??
P.S 3iinfo was a crash buy call near 210 target 320.
ALREADY DONE a 1 year target in few months.. geez. crazy markets. why?? because stock has a bigger fan following. thats all.
Some people actually think they are smart if they pay higher p.e
The pretend they are buying growth (which they are 3iinfo growth rate expected is almost 40% cagr for 2 years)
But seriously, same returns are also available at much lower p.e. in aftek/prithvi.
p.e.g is what counts.
Why buy 3iinfo @10x fy09? When you can get prithvi for 4x fy09??
U know why i stick with market is crazy theory???
Rolta was selling at 80-100 in 2005..
p.e of only 5-8x :)
and p.e.g of 0.25
Look AT IT NOW....
Famous bubbles
Read for examples of bubbles/manias
http://www.theequitydesk.com/manias.asp
Another form of bubble which I see daily around me is forward earnings multiples.
People sometimes start talking forward earnings/valuations as if they are guaranteed.
You have to price in risk of forward earnings not being hit???
What about that?
No risk?
Riskless investments?
Very rare.
fmcg/pharma are generally considered the low risk sectors and look at the crashes in reddy/cipla lately.
Hll was a gr8 investment at 250, then 230, then 200 now 190 p.e of 25 ish and no one talks about investing in hll on yahoo any longer.
This is where long term bottoms are formed.
Hll is now near lower end of historic p.e band even as its earnings are starting to get back on track.
dabur is trading at 30x earnings....... when dabur entered futures it traded at barely 10-12 x earnings. the futures were discounted by 2-3 rs for no good reason etc. That is called insanity.
Right now people will tell you dabur buy @ 30x forward earnings. Thats rubbish. if cagr is 30% buy at 30x trailing. next year's target is 30x next year's earnings. end of story. IF anyone can prove otherwise i am all ears.
litl
fy09e = 21..
fy10e=3x..
fy11e=5x..
target 210 in 2 years...
issue price 200-240, listing 280. If it was worth 280 @ listing why is it not worth that much now?? Has the growth potential of the power/infra sector gone down??
breakout level 175-176
u do the math.
risk? 144 old low?
trailing eps 12-13?
rock bottom 120-130 in a recovery after a market crash? (note in an actual crash u could go to 80-90 who knows?
"The only truth of the markets: no risk, no reward."
can i copyright this phrase? :)
http://www.theequitydesk.com/manias.asp
Another form of bubble which I see daily around me is forward earnings multiples.
People sometimes start talking forward earnings/valuations as if they are guaranteed.
You have to price in risk of forward earnings not being hit???
What about that?
No risk?
Riskless investments?
Very rare.
fmcg/pharma are generally considered the low risk sectors and look at the crashes in reddy/cipla lately.
Hll was a gr8 investment at 250, then 230, then 200 now 190 p.e of 25 ish and no one talks about investing in hll on yahoo any longer.
This is where long term bottoms are formed.
Hll is now near lower end of historic p.e band even as its earnings are starting to get back on track.
dabur is trading at 30x earnings....... when dabur entered futures it traded at barely 10-12 x earnings. the futures were discounted by 2-3 rs for no good reason etc. That is called insanity.
Right now people will tell you dabur buy @ 30x forward earnings. Thats rubbish. if cagr is 30% buy at 30x trailing. next year's target is 30x next year's earnings. end of story. IF anyone can prove otherwise i am all ears.
litl
fy09e = 21..
fy10e=3x..
fy11e=5x..
target 210 in 2 years...
issue price 200-240, listing 280. If it was worth 280 @ listing why is it not worth that much now?? Has the growth potential of the power/infra sector gone down??
breakout level 175-176
u do the math.
risk? 144 old low?
trailing eps 12-13?
rock bottom 120-130 in a recovery after a market crash? (note in an actual crash u could go to 80-90 who knows?
"The only truth of the markets: no risk, no reward."
can i copyright this phrase? :)
hoec rumours of some bid going on for hoec
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: HINDOILEXP
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:108.88 S2:106.50
R1:154.34 R2:182.40
Target1:123.358 Target2:137.387
Target3:154.223
SL1:98.1039 SL2:81.2681
Please check fundas for yourself before buying in delivery.
Stock Name: HINDOILEXP
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:108.88 S2:106.50
R1:154.34 R2:182.40
Target1:123.358 Target2:137.387
Target3:154.223
SL1:98.1039 SL2:81.2681
Please check fundas for yourself before buying in delivery.
Stocks to buy in any big dips
LT, relcap, mcdowell, patni, ndtv
Stocks which are already at supports satyam/hll/indianb/syndi/albk
Nifty any dip to 4200-4180 is a clear cut eod chart buy sl below 4140/4110 previous low.
Worst case scenario you do 50% retrace of first drop wave b pullback and then head lower for wave c
Stocks which are already at supports satyam/hll/indianb/syndi/albk
Nifty any dip to 4200-4180 is a clear cut eod chart buy sl below 4140/4110 previous low.
Worst case scenario you do 50% retrace of first drop wave b pullback and then head lower for wave c
buy hll
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: HINDLEVER
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:198.86 S2:199.10
R1:208.99 R2:215.24
Target1:202.804 Target2:205.93
Target3:209.68
SL1:197.179 SL2:193.429
Sl to be employed on closing basis
Low beta stock
low risk, low reward.
can trade slightly bigger quantity than other stocks to compensate for this
Stock Name: HINDLEVER
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:198.86 S2:199.10
R1:208.99 R2:215.24
Target1:202.804 Target2:205.93
Target3:209.68
SL1:197.179 SL2:193.429
Sl to be employed on closing basis
Low beta stock
low risk, low reward.
can trade slightly bigger quantity than other stocks to compensate for this
Nifty consolidation
Nifty 4240 support from breakout
if broken??
then 4200(round figure) 4180-4140 etc etc
uptrend dies only below 4140/3980 levels.
bull market ends only below 200 sma.
Simple rules.
If you do short a bull market keep 2-3 day/2-3 week rule in mind.
Most corrections are over by the time u notice they have started.
For those who are seeing 'downtrend' and weakness
I suggest looking at the bigger picture.
Open a weekly or monthly chart of nifty and tell me how weak/strong we are.
Did u know I bought today? I gave buy calls and i bought, did u know fiis also bought???
Trade with fiis, trade against retail/punters
retail/punters create the daily chart moves/noise, fii trends create the weekly /monthly chart trends.
I am still bullish on syndibank near 20 day lows.
hll above 192
pateleng near 400
and nifty above 4240 (sl 4240) or near 4180(sl 4140/4110)
Look at dow.. opens gap down/weak
due to global cues
But bucks the trend closes strong.
So again tomorrow.. china might be down. But atleast cues from u.s will be neutral/up.
China is going to retrace 50% OF ENTIRE MOVE FROM LOW TO HIGH
I wish i could buy a put on the chinese index. I'd buy a put on any/every rally
and buy a call on nifty in every decline.
Want to learn the optimal point for shorting????
"Buy/Sell the first correction after a big rally/decline"
W.D.Gann...
Don't understand???
Buzz me i'll give u a document.
if broken??
then 4200(round figure) 4180-4140 etc etc
uptrend dies only below 4140/3980 levels.
bull market ends only below 200 sma.
Simple rules.
If you do short a bull market keep 2-3 day/2-3 week rule in mind.
Most corrections are over by the time u notice they have started.
For those who are seeing 'downtrend' and weakness
I suggest looking at the bigger picture.
Open a weekly or monthly chart of nifty and tell me how weak/strong we are.
Did u know I bought today? I gave buy calls and i bought, did u know fiis also bought???
Trade with fiis, trade against retail/punters
retail/punters create the daily chart moves/noise, fii trends create the weekly /monthly chart trends.
I am still bullish on syndibank near 20 day lows.
hll above 192
pateleng near 400
and nifty above 4240 (sl 4240) or near 4180(sl 4140/4110)
Look at dow.. opens gap down/weak
due to global cues
But bucks the trend closes strong.
So again tomorrow.. china might be down. But atleast cues from u.s will be neutral/up.
China is going to retrace 50% OF ENTIRE MOVE FROM LOW TO HIGH
I wish i could buy a put on the chinese index. I'd buy a put on any/every rally
and buy a call on nifty in every decline.
Want to learn the optimal point for shorting????
"Buy/Sell the first correction after a big rally/decline"
W.D.Gann...
Don't understand???
Buzz me i'll give u a document.
Zen update
Go back to my old zen post
"To be happy act like you are already happy."
How do you identify a person who is happy?? Facial expression, laughter, joy usually.
what came first? the smile? the laugh? or happiness?
if you can find something to smile about every day you will be happy
"To be happy act like you are already happy."
How do you identify a person who is happy?? Facial expression, laughter, joy usually.
what came first? the smile? the laugh? or happiness?
if you can find something to smile about every day you will be happy
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)