short rpl
few days ago news coverage construction of refinery
same pattern refer to essar oil 60 rs
Short sugar. also getting extensive coverage recently
anticnbc=antiretail.
since retail watches cnbc a lot.
right?
Saturday, March 31, 2007
New yahoo id
New yahoo id = niftytradersinc@yahoo.com
Also no msging on yahoo because I suspect yahoo is cracking down on mass messaging.
Also no msging on yahoo because I suspect yahoo is cracking down on mass messaging.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Bears are waiting but where??
At first i thought 3900 but bears might be overeager.
3820
3900
3971
4040
take your pick
one of these will hold
But the key point is 3220/2920/2600 is coming now.
april we might get a retest of 3570 min.
Liquidity continues to tighten
Another crr hike announced.
Be bullish at your own peril
Earlier 3760 gap up held
and bounced till 3820
3800 was regained but given the crr hike we might not do a retest of 3900.
My earlier view was that 3800 would be regained. (i.e one hurdle would be crossed, from support near 13 ema 3760 bounce, but res 3900 would probably hold, this time my vision was bulls in fast bikes, high flying jumping over hurdles
but they run into stationary bear trucks :))
translation to nifty levels 3760 13 ema would hold but 3900 would also hold or 3820 the gap down could hold because both of these can be considered stationary levels.
(moving averages are dynamic levels, while gaps/old highs/old lows are what i consider stationary levels)
a retracement within the first leg down
3900-375x will resist and set us up for a very nasty drop
Global cues would also be important
keep in mind last month's expiry near 3800 was purely a nifty option play
the 3800 put taken at 3900 doubled
then went right back to 0
those who booked profits quickly made money . those who got greedy got 0
Now the april puts: 3800 put for 115 is the reco
target is 230
sl is 115 price paid for put
reasoning is retest of 3570 is imminent.
and at 3570 the put would have 230 intrinsic value.
Also 3900 calls can be shorted for 70
Reasoning is 3900 is 0.5, 3961 is 0.618 and 3971 is also the collapse level for initial breakout to downside. refer to march 2004 charts the first rally to the big drop could not regain the initial downward breakout level.
hence 3900-3970 area is very stiff resistance and a monthly closing above that level is unlikely unless you believe this is a fresh bull market.
Any REAL bulls out there?
3820
3900
3971
4040
take your pick
one of these will hold
But the key point is 3220/2920/2600 is coming now.
april we might get a retest of 3570 min.
Liquidity continues to tighten
Another crr hike announced.
Be bullish at your own peril
Earlier 3760 gap up held
and bounced till 3820
3800 was regained but given the crr hike we might not do a retest of 3900.
My earlier view was that 3800 would be regained. (i.e one hurdle would be crossed, from support near 13 ema 3760 bounce, but res 3900 would probably hold, this time my vision was bulls in fast bikes, high flying jumping over hurdles
but they run into stationary bear trucks :))
translation to nifty levels 3760 13 ema would hold but 3900 would also hold or 3820 the gap down could hold because both of these can be considered stationary levels.
(moving averages are dynamic levels, while gaps/old highs/old lows are what i consider stationary levels)
a retracement within the first leg down
3900-375x will resist and set us up for a very nasty drop
Global cues would also be important
keep in mind last month's expiry near 3800 was purely a nifty option play
the 3800 put taken at 3900 doubled
then went right back to 0
those who booked profits quickly made money . those who got greedy got 0
Now the april puts: 3800 put for 115 is the reco
target is 230
sl is 115 price paid for put
reasoning is retest of 3570 is imminent.
and at 3570 the put would have 230 intrinsic value.
Also 3900 calls can be shorted for 70
Reasoning is 3900 is 0.5, 3961 is 0.618 and 3971 is also the collapse level for initial breakout to downside. refer to march 2004 charts the first rally to the big drop could not regain the initial downward breakout level.
hence 3900-3970 area is very stiff resistance and a monthly closing above that level is unlikely unless you believe this is a fresh bull market.
Any REAL bulls out there?
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Market gaps down (3760 support/3800 resistance)
Targets for april/may shorts still remain 3570-3440-3220-2920-2600 etc etc
Those who bought april puts should hold for atleast a retest of 3570
Failiure to cross 3800/3820 gap down will result in weakness
3760 support from gap up area.
below 3756 possibility of an island reversal top
supports 3737/3699/3574
below 3574 large C wave down type move begins.
first hint = 3800 holding (above 3800 u have an intermediate market bottom)
next hint=3756/3737/3699 breaking
dow jones equivalent breakout level = 12.3 k or so
also regained by bears today but keep an eye on it.
My hunch is that 3800 will be regained by bulls within 2 sessions and 3900 will be retested.
So keep an eye on dow breakout level and our breakout level as well.
Our intermediate bottom is negated below 3570. Bulls were screaming buy at 3830 :)
Where are they now??
Thats why at 3900 i was saying wait for the 50% retrace. The dip decides what comes next.
I still believe that 50/62% retrace of rise can hold. Just check pharma stocks they held their retracements and broke up today.
Strength is only above 3800/3820. So some bulls will be waiting for breakout.
Bears who shorted at 3900 probably holding with sl above 3900
We might look to the world again for world market 'sentiment'
all of europe was down today.
China was down today dropped a bit but ended on a new 52 week high.
We are unfortunately much weaker, any hint of weakness from world markets tomorrow and bulls will be in for a lot of pain.
3900-3971-4040 max upside remains after which sub 3570 levels are imminent.
So 3900 calls can probably be sold for 70-100 rs for april.
For now 3550-3900 range remains
I was hoping that 3760 would hold but market doesn't seem to be doing that right now.
So we gotta look at the retracement levels
in spot
Retracements :3574.3-3901.45
0.236:3824.24 0.382:3776.48
0.5 :3737.88 0.618:3699.27
0.786:3644.31
in nf
Retracements :3542.1-3904
0.236:3818.59 0.382:3765.75
0.5 :3723.05 0.618:3680.35
0.786:3619.55
Those who bought april puts should hold for atleast a retest of 3570
Failiure to cross 3800/3820 gap down will result in weakness
3760 support from gap up area.
below 3756 possibility of an island reversal top
supports 3737/3699/3574
below 3574 large C wave down type move begins.
first hint = 3800 holding (above 3800 u have an intermediate market bottom)
next hint=3756/3737/3699 breaking
dow jones equivalent breakout level = 12.3 k or so
also regained by bears today but keep an eye on it.
My hunch is that 3800 will be regained by bulls within 2 sessions and 3900 will be retested.
So keep an eye on dow breakout level and our breakout level as well.
Our intermediate bottom is negated below 3570. Bulls were screaming buy at 3830 :)
Where are they now??
Thats why at 3900 i was saying wait for the 50% retrace. The dip decides what comes next.
I still believe that 50/62% retrace of rise can hold. Just check pharma stocks they held their retracements and broke up today.
Strength is only above 3800/3820. So some bulls will be waiting for breakout.
Bears who shorted at 3900 probably holding with sl above 3900
We might look to the world again for world market 'sentiment'
all of europe was down today.
China was down today dropped a bit but ended on a new 52 week high.
We are unfortunately much weaker, any hint of weakness from world markets tomorrow and bulls will be in for a lot of pain.
3900-3971-4040 max upside remains after which sub 3570 levels are imminent.
So 3900 calls can probably be sold for 70-100 rs for april.
For now 3550-3900 range remains
I was hoping that 3760 would hold but market doesn't seem to be doing that right now.
So we gotta look at the retracement levels
in spot
Retracements :3574.3-3901.45
0.236:3824.24 0.382:3776.48
0.5 :3737.88 0.618:3699.27
0.786:3644.31
in nf
Retracements :3542.1-3904
0.236:3818.59 0.382:3765.75
0.5 :3723.05 0.618:3680.35
0.786:3619.55
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
World markets down a tad around 0.5-1%
Expect some initial weakness in nifty , if you get a gap down
then look to buy near 3770-3740
I think the march expiry target could be 3800
thats where max puts and calls probably are.
Dow jones reacted from 0.618 region
its still in a rising channel though so it might just be going for its old high.
China already did a new high.
Somehow I think our max is only 3971-4020 even if world markets continue strong.
From 3971-4020 its back down to 3570 for april/may.
Reliance/ongc might continue to show some isolated strength on crude being above 60$
If the puts purchased near 3900 double then exit thats the target for march puts
IF you bought april puts you can hold for a revisit of 3570
then look to buy near 3770-3740
I think the march expiry target could be 3800
thats where max puts and calls probably are.
Dow jones reacted from 0.618 region
its still in a rising channel though so it might just be going for its old high.
China already did a new high.
Somehow I think our max is only 3971-4020 even if world markets continue strong.
From 3971-4020 its back down to 3570 for april/may.
Reliance/ongc might continue to show some isolated strength on crude being above 60$
If the puts purchased near 3900 double then exit thats the target for march puts
IF you bought april puts you can hold for a revisit of 3570
Gap up support 3760
3900 was expected to be resistance area.
Sure enough it held
and sure enough cnbc was saying
'short term uptrend'
buy near 3830/3850+ sl 3800 target 3925
To be fair some analysts on cnbc were bearish and did say book profits and wait for first pullback to 3760 area. sensex level 12.xxx
3760 area gap up will hold
Sharp pullback possible
retest of 3800-3840-3900
market will stay in this range for a few more sessions
We might even test max res confluence area 3971 later
But ultimately in april 3656-3556 is expected to be revisited.
below 200 sma bears can take us to the lower c wave targets given earlier.
Sure enough it held
and sure enough cnbc was saying
'short term uptrend'
buy near 3830/3850+ sl 3800 target 3925
To be fair some analysts on cnbc were bearish and did say book profits and wait for first pullback to 3760 area. sensex level 12.xxx
3760 area gap up will hold
Sharp pullback possible
retest of 3800-3840-3900
market will stay in this range for a few more sessions
We might even test max res confluence area 3971 later
But ultimately in april 3656-3556 is expected to be revisited.
below 200 sma bears can take us to the lower c wave targets given earlier.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Going to the idea or letting the idea come to you?
Try this technique out.
Right before you fall asleep.
Close your eyes and think about the stock market.
Let your mind drift.
Only works if you have been watching the market for a while.
Works really well if you have been watching the screen/level II.
The reason you want to do this when you are tired is that your left brain /logical side will be shutting down.
The right brain has the ability to process millions of bits per second in the form of audio/video while the left brain while 'smart' and logical is fairly limited in its processing capabilities, maybe 16 bits at a time. the pathway in the left in terms of the data stream is narrow though speed can be improved with practice.
In the right brain the past the present and the future are all one. There is no concept of time. So if you do it right. You should get flooded with imagery/patterns/connections
Now your task is to translate the imagery into trading levels/prices/strategies.
The best is of course when your mind actually throws up the number at you
Those are the easiest trades.
Usually you will get complicated imagery, which then has to be translated into stock market action.
Right now I'm long on 3800 put for 20 could go to 40 if gap fill comes.
Lets see.
I never said i was a good trader. I am good at analyzing things.
The ability to keep an open mind and see the possibilities.
Thats my speciality
the problem is when you have too many possibilities which one do you act on???
Gonna try out some freshly optimized trading systems to try and solve this problem.
Annualized returns of almost 1000% percent possible on margin capital.
The system is based on shorting high with a small stop and covering back quickly.
Catches w5/wc tops and covers before internal test of w4 lows.
Will let you guys know how it goes later.
Right before you fall asleep.
Close your eyes and think about the stock market.
Let your mind drift.
Only works if you have been watching the market for a while.
Works really well if you have been watching the screen/level II.
The reason you want to do this when you are tired is that your left brain /logical side will be shutting down.
The right brain has the ability to process millions of bits per second in the form of audio/video while the left brain while 'smart' and logical is fairly limited in its processing capabilities, maybe 16 bits at a time. the pathway in the left in terms of the data stream is narrow though speed can be improved with practice.
In the right brain the past the present and the future are all one. There is no concept of time. So if you do it right. You should get flooded with imagery/patterns/connections
Now your task is to translate the imagery into trading levels/prices/strategies.
The best is of course when your mind actually throws up the number at you
Those are the easiest trades.
Usually you will get complicated imagery, which then has to be translated into stock market action.
Right now I'm long on 3800 put for 20 could go to 40 if gap fill comes.
Lets see.
I never said i was a good trader. I am good at analyzing things.
The ability to keep an open mind and see the possibilities.
Thats my speciality
the problem is when you have too many possibilities which one do you act on???
Gonna try out some freshly optimized trading systems to try and solve this problem.
Annualized returns of almost 1000% percent possible on margin capital.
The system is based on shorting high with a small stop and covering back quickly.
Catches w5/wc tops and covers before internal test of w4 lows.
Will let you guys know how it goes later.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Advanced Get and metastock data
My version of advanced get seemed to be having trouble with too many files in one folder.
Kept giving the error 'files are not a recognized version'
Solution=split files into multiple directories
Now works beautifully.
Aget by the way counting w4 pullback. Aget has this bad habit of not recognizing w3 until its too late. I think it assumes wc until c=a not broken decisively.
Anyway 50:50 zone first 3900 area should hold
Give us a pullback till maybe 3560-3900 ka 50%
then we can try higher.
Depending on how the bulls handle the fall we will be able to get some insight into what comes next: a new high or a new low.
Btw china broke up from flat consolidation and made a new high, Then again china never broke any swing lows chinese 3656 equivalent dec lows held in the correction.
Kept giving the error 'files are not a recognized version'
Solution=split files into multiple directories
Now works beautifully.
Aget by the way counting w4 pullback. Aget has this bad habit of not recognizing w3 until its too late. I think it assumes wc until c=a not broken decisively.
Anyway 50:50 zone first 3900 area should hold
Give us a pullback till maybe 3560-3900 ka 50%
then we can try higher.
Depending on how the bulls handle the fall we will be able to get some insight into what comes next: a new high or a new low.
Btw china broke up from flat consolidation and made a new high, Then again china never broke any swing lows chinese 3656 equivalent dec lows held in the correction.
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