Thursday, November 01, 2007

Success

Success=Work+Play+shut up

Source: Einstein.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Market can go higher if bulls hold 5800

Fed rate cut.
What does that mean? fiis might pump in more cash.
$ to fall more.
Re to rally. Tech/exporters will remain under pressure but market might try
5996/6083/64xx
So far 599x in futures and 5970 in spot have been good res.
Should probably take them out.
Stoploss for the bullish view is 5800.

Yesterday the support from triangular trendline at 5885 or so was pointed out during the final dip. That was the place to enter for aggressive bulls with a small stop and now bulls will have to enter with a bit wider stop. The breakout from triangle will be today or tomorrow; I expect some really big moves soon.

Remember it doesn't matter whether you are right or wrong about the market as long as you make money (*trade hedged*). Hedges for last two sessions were colgate and sobha.
I'm guessing any exporter will be a good hedge for next 2 sessions.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Sensex touching 20k

Look for hedges/exits sensex 20k and nifty 6k
these are two very very big levels.

I like to hedge by selling calls if long and selling puts if short. Not a big fan of giving someone else premium/time value.
I am not a huge fan of hedging via options because I haven't backtested that idea.
I have however mathematically verified the utility of shorting weak stocks even as the market rallies.
So sectors which I think are shortable? anything that hasn't made a new high. IT? if you get a short setup, fmcg maybe some autos (but watchout for diwali sales)
To test my theory i'm shorting colgate. Its low beta, low risk, low reward.

nifty 5200 is the support 6000 is the res.