Thursday, October 09, 2008

Mega cap at book value??

Tisco book value 300
I just bought @ 310.
eps around 64-70.
few years ago eps was as low as 40-50
Anyway
http://in.biz.yahoo.com/081009/203/6yfu1.html
arcelor expects ok numbers.
I don't and the market doesn't..
Steel stocks have crashed. More price drops to come but I think that tisco's profitability will go back to pre bull market levels..
Last time tisco was at 300 was when I started trading..
2004 ish.
So I think I'll just hold for 3-5 years and exit at a p.e of 10 around lets say 800-1000 rs.

Keep in mind bear markets are sharp violent affairs. especially near the end of local waves. I'm not saying nifty is done tanking but such a violent spike could lead to a profit taking/pullback rally maybe a consolidation between 3000-3600-3800. If we had held 3800 then 5k would have been my jan target but since we broke that. Jan target is around 4400 now.

Nifty strong support at 3300-3000-2800-2600
2600=ground floor
eps of nifty = 225
If anyone has estimates for fy2009 nifty/sensex earnings estimates, then please do leave a comment.
old estimates for nifty earnings would have been 20% eps growth
so 270 eps. or 2700 ground floor
but fresh estimates might be lower around 250-260?? I really don't know.
But if I had to pick an area then the break all your bank deposits and buy nifty
region would be 2300-2700.
10 times forward earnings (since current yield on a fixed deposit is around 10%)
(I still have some fds... all fds start getting broken if we touch 2800-2600 and 2300)