If you refer to all "trend following system"
calls
accuracy so far is damn near 100% with the wide stoploss...
Which is a volatility based risk management level, i usually try to give a call when I can find a fibonacci confluence near the automated system sl levels.
Not a single sl2 hit on closing basis.
and t3 has been hit in nearly all of the calls
Here is the issue..
As and when nifty breaks sl ... so will all my calls
And on that one day alone.. sl of 2-3-5% into 2-3 positions :)
u need to be prepared for that. If you cannot handle the risk there is no reward.
Over the duration of both a bull and bear cycle my accuracy on calls will only be 60:40 or so.
Sl1 is a narrow stoploss only to be used by intraday traders it can whipsaw meaning u need to be flexible with reentry rules.
Sl2 is a stoploss which u can use to cut the position and run.
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2007/05/intraday-trade-setups-for-tomorrow.html
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2007/05/pass-on-link-to-this-site-if-you-want.html
Always try to understand the difference between a general musing/idea and a trading call
a trading call has entry/exit/sl/target without this there is no trade...
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2007/05/divis-labs-valuations.html
If u used this to short divis.. u got burned.
The musing was there..
divis overvalued on fy08. If you read merryl reports or moran stanley reports i am sure they said the same thing.
I have investigated divis further fy09 eps is like 166....
fy08 eps.. 144
current eps. 100
divis is now approaching 30x fy09 :)
p.e.g?
p.e.g right now is? 4800 roughly divided by 100 divided by 28=1.71
read previous post on my theory of shorting high p.e.g
At p.e.g of 2 u have an investment on short side.....
p.e.g of 1.6+ usually indicates w5 of some sort to me.
Just random theories..
p.e.g of 2 would imply as high as 5600.
Can never be sure of the actual top
5021/5500/5600 lots of levels still open. Maybe its already topped. I will post a concrete call when a trade setup is available in the format of entry/exit/sl
1 year fair value target of divis is now 4320 ...
when stock is 20% above fair value?? u have an investment to short side :). The only question is.. how long can the market remain irrational? risk with shorting is that u don't know.... how long it will stay crazy :)
Also beauty of shorting fno?? 12% cost of carry in your pocket per year.
As for exactly where the top will be?
only god knows..divis is already 50x trailing earnings.
Then again even china is at 50x :)
Friday, May 25, 2007
Cycle 5th extension possible..
Seen divis madness lately???
Nifty could easily do similar psychosis if we get a 5th wave extension.
Need the following trigger.
Re strength. rbi intervention.
Tech going to new highs.
Already gave tech buy call... tcs 1230
Play for 1300-1320-1380 in 2-3 months.
1550-1600 for one year.
Fib analysts who use arithmetic scale are throwing up 4350..
log analysts start with 4400.. but thats only a t1...
Show me an extension.. 4900 allowed :)
To understand an extension you need to see how a flower blossoms.
The stocks that do 5th extensions will be the best shorts afer this leg up is over..
I.e steel, divis etc all clear 5th wave extensions.. an extension in the 5th usually means a mega sharp correction after the end of the 5th. (5th extension should be into mega overvalued area on earnings as well. Thats how i would detect a 5th extension apart from the standard rules for throwover above channel etc.)
The wisdom of gann suggests, buy the first rally , sell the first pullback.
I.e new momentum swing, try to take position on end of wave b for wavec
I will try not to tell you where to short in advance. Calling the top is not an easy task. It should be obvious though when the move up is over.
I'll post the short setups later.
When they are ACTUALLY THERE
I am just giving the warning in advance.. an extension in 5th usually means correction down to 2nd ka lows.
Nifty could easily do similar psychosis if we get a 5th wave extension.
Need the following trigger.
Re strength. rbi intervention.
Tech going to new highs.
Already gave tech buy call... tcs 1230
Play for 1300-1320-1380 in 2-3 months.
1550-1600 for one year.
Fib analysts who use arithmetic scale are throwing up 4350..
log analysts start with 4400.. but thats only a t1...
Show me an extension.. 4900 allowed :)
To understand an extension you need to see how a flower blossoms.
The stocks that do 5th extensions will be the best shorts afer this leg up is over..
I.e steel, divis etc all clear 5th wave extensions.. an extension in the 5th usually means a mega sharp correction after the end of the 5th. (5th extension should be into mega overvalued area on earnings as well. Thats how i would detect a 5th extension apart from the standard rules for throwover above channel etc.)
The wisdom of gann suggests, buy the first rally , sell the first pullback.
I.e new momentum swing, try to take position on end of wave b for wavec
I will try not to tell you where to short in advance. Calling the top is not an easy task. It should be obvious though when the move up is over.
I'll post the short setups later.
When they are ACTUALLY THERE
I am just giving the warning in advance.. an extension in 5th usually means correction down to 2nd ka lows.
Catching falling knives.......
random (5/18/2007 9:28:48 AM): can we enter nifty somewher
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:03 AM): do you wanna take overnight position
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:07 AM): on a friday?
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:20 AM): u'll have tension
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:22 AM): for 2 days
random (5/18/2007 9:30:26 AM): no exit
random (5/18/2007 9:30:28 AM): 10-20 pts
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:32 AM): System: Trend follower) Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY Buyarea=4201.18 S1:4,196.98 S2:4,205.37 R1:4,233.88 R2:4,256.65 Target1:4212.56 Target2:4223.95 Target3:4237.62 SL1:4196.62 SL2:4178.4 Sl to be employed on closing basis,
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:42 AM): scalping system
random (5/18/2007 9:30:43 AM): was waiting for 4201
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:12 AM): System: Trend follower) Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY Buyarea=4184.96 S1:4,180.78 S2:4,195.14 R1:4,217.68 R2:4,240.45 Target1:4196.35 Target2:4207.74 Target3:4221.4 SL1:4180.4 SL2:4162.18
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:23 AM): 4195-4180 ultimate support
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:25 AM): from gap up
random (5/18/2007 9:31:28 AM): ADANI
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:32 AM): depends on how aggressive u want to be
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:41 AM): but sl is only below gap up
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:03 AM): do you wanna take overnight position
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:07 AM): on a friday?
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:20 AM): u'll have tension
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:22 AM): for 2 days
random (5/18/2007 9:30:26 AM): no exit
random (5/18/2007 9:30:28 AM): 10-20 pts
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:32 AM): System: Trend follower) Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY Buyarea=4201.18 S1:4,196.98 S2:4,205.37 R1:4,233.88 R2:4,256.65 Target1:4212.56 Target2:4223.95 Target3:4237.62 SL1:4196.62 SL2:4178.4 Sl to be employed on closing basis,
Raja (5/18/2007 9:30:42 AM): scalping system
random (5/18/2007 9:30:43 AM): was waiting for 4201
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:12 AM): System: Trend follower) Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY Buyarea=4184.96 S1:4,180.78 S2:4,195.14 R1:4,217.68 R2:4,240.45 Target1:4196.35 Target2:4207.74 Target3:4221.4 SL1:4180.4 SL2:4162.18
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:23 AM): 4195-4180 ultimate support
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:25 AM): from gap up
random (5/18/2007 9:31:28 AM): ADANI
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:32 AM): depends on how aggressive u want to be
Raja (5/18/2007 9:31:41 AM): but sl is only below gap up
Thursday, May 24, 2007
If you open at support.. how can u go down further??
Rcom opened, day low at my level 480
Sbi opened more or less 1252 area opening trades...
ndtv 380 open but ideal buy level given was 377...
In the case of a gap down in a bull move??
the early bird gets the worm :)
Strong funda/technical trend stock.
Just buy market order @ open @ gap down.
Whether or not we do 4400 is now decided by 4150-4180 area. as mentioned in my previous post.
I honestly don't know
50:50
regardless of what nifty does strong stocks like relcap/mcdowell/patni etc are to be bought
and weak stocks which form double tops and head lower below recent consolidation lows of 4030 should be shorted. Not everyone can be a part of local 5th waves...
Sbi opened more or less 1252 area opening trades...
ndtv 380 open but ideal buy level given was 377...
In the case of a gap down in a bull move??
the early bird gets the worm :)
Strong funda/technical trend stock.
Just buy market order @ open @ gap down.
Whether or not we do 4400 is now decided by 4150-4180 area. as mentioned in my previous post.
I honestly don't know
50:50
regardless of what nifty does strong stocks like relcap/mcdowell/patni etc are to be bought
and weak stocks which form double tops and head lower below recent consolidation lows of 4030 should be shorted. Not everyone can be a part of local 5th waves...
Random tests on gap downs
Intraday after gap down: bias down for rest of day.
Shorts work better
Rallies/gap fill attempts usually get shorted.
buying panic open can also give profits with small trailing sl.
Buying at close after gap down can give profits in a bull market if position is held for 2-4 days.
All tests done on nf.
The most popular technique for gap trading is to a trade with gap . use breakout/continuation/exhaustion principles.
And the anti gap setup is the larry williams oops setup which buys on gap fill above previous low.
Shorts work better
Rallies/gap fill attempts usually get shorted.
buying panic open can also give profits with small trailing sl.
Buying at close after gap down can give profits in a bull market if position is held for 2-4 days.
All tests done on nf.
The most popular technique for gap trading is to a trade with gap . use breakout/continuation/exhaustion principles.
And the anti gap setup is the larry williams oops setup which buys on gap fill above previous low.
Concrete case of strength..
Check relcap/ndtv/mcdowell etc..
So many people stuck with shorts that the gap down gets massive support.
So many people stuck with shorts that the gap down gets massive support.
Falling knives...only 2 real options for nifty short or out for 'trend followers' as defined by ultra short term trend
People love to use the cliche.
"Don't catch a falling knife"
I love to argue with people.
One must define
rising
falling
...
if you are following intra day charts.. trend down
if you are following eod/weekly? trend still intact!!
The mechanical 'knife catching/trend following' system says the following...
Always remember what is falling in one tf can be rising in the other.
That is the basis of alexander elder's tripple screen.
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
Buyarea=4179.67
S1:4,179.25 S2:4,200.28
R1:4,286.10 R2:4,352.06
Target1:4212.65 Target2:4245.63
Target3:4285.2
SL1:4153.29 SL2:4113.71
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
Buyarea=4143.14
S1:4,141.49 S2:4,174.95
R1:4,247.30 R2:4,312.63
Target1:4175.8 Target2:4208.46
Target3:4247.65
SL1:4117.01 SL2:4077.82
These are the two calls being genrated by the 'knife catcher'
This system is 50:50 and quite profitable if traded mechanically...
If you aren't comfy with catching the knife on the way down.. then read on for details and other ranting.
Best way to gamble is to take a call option. max risk is well defined in that case.
Only try long if u can handle the stoploss levels....
last time catching the falling knife worked at 4030.. it cannot work every time :)
If you refer to my post of last corrective. I had given buy calls on a whole list of stocks on the way down itself...
You know why there is always a buyer for nifty and a group shares? Even in a 'decline'?
Because someone is always sitting on cash to invest.
There is always some index fund out there which has a mandate to buy nifty/a group stocks daily.
Now in the face of such insane competition to buy nifty do you really want to trade nifty short?? Nifty usually doesn't get trashed nearly as much as midcaps ...
Which is why I like to invest in midcaps in any kind of correction. Which is why: my previous post requested people for good midcap picks... and I got exactly 0 responses :).
Total waste of time.. i swear thats what this blog is. a total waste. It is mostly an exercise in self glorification and egotism.
Now , back to nifty. Funds are always buying nifty they are the ones that give you the support regardless of the short term trend.
You know why??? They create the long term trend?? How?? As long as investors are willing to pump cash into mutual funds these guys have to buy. They cannot exactly sit on cash if they have been ordered by their investors to buy.
The smart investor will not even panic and exit nifty in a 10/20/30/40/50/60% drop because history teaches us that every dip is to be bought until the fundamental trend is up.... For those who actually try to learn from history that is. If you haven't learned anything yet then I suggest studying a dow jones chart along with a p.e band. Refer to previous posts. Only an investor has the luxury of holding nifty thru a huge dips all the way to 60-80-90% retracement :). Reason is the max loss? is initial capital. risk is limited. A leveraged trader needs a stoploss......
So if you are long on nifty? Pick a stop, stick with it.
Already reccomended profit booking yesterday on that 4000 call. It did double so you cannot complain. 100-120 buy price. low hit 86. high hit 280....
profit booking advised 200-240...
Have you ever wondered what the largest timeframe trend is??
Over the lifetime of an investor as long as the index is not purchased at a p.e.g >> 1 (using a 2 year valuation mechanism) the net returns on any major index will tend to outperform fixed deposits. (reason?? index companies don't go bankrupt, the major index usually represents the top companies of a nation, the backbone of its economic engine, also you get automatic portfolio management as companies get moved into and out of the index based on their size, risk with the main index is always very very small and is tied to macroeconomics like gdp growth etc rather than microeconomic fluctuations, also keep in mind inflation causes an upward bias/drift in stock prices so its easier to be long than short in the longest timeframes)
In the longest timeframes, the knife is almost always rising...
For now dip in progress. look to short. I prefer shorting stock futures at premium so that I can cover at near 0 premium or at discount in a panic. That gives extraordinary profits as compared to shorting nifty. You need to work out alpha/beta etc before you figure out which stocks to short and in what ratio if you want to emulate return of nifty to upside/downside. clearly shorting all 50 nifty stocks though ideal is not feasible. Mind you shorting 50 futures contracts in the right ratio. i.e basket selling futures will be a better idea than shorting nifty futures. reason?? NF often goes into a discount in a drop and when short stoplosses get hit it goes into a premium. My favorite short side stocks usually are sbi/rcom. They generally perform in line with nifty on the downside. Beta is >1 which means higher leverage/lower comissions (as % of volatilty) and as opposed to nifty these 2 can be shorted at premiums even in a decline.
Today looking for maybe 1260-1250 below 1280 in sbi and rcom 480 below 494.
if you want to learn how to juggle falling knives, then you really need to be very very quick with your levels.
Fibonacci/ewt or very very quick with intraday chart patterns like my friend rajnish who seems to have a crazy knack for picking hns and inv hns intraday on a 1 min chart :).
No real way to prove that it even works and it doesn't work for me... but it works for him.
What works for me??
For those who want to use something that works for me ? (will it work for u? I don't know.. can u handle being wrong 50-60% of the time?? right only 40%? but making 2x losses on the wins??)
http://niftytraders.blogspot.com
7/105
Why 7/105?? its near optimal on automated backtests... What is the theoretical significance??
8 is the smallest elliot wave cycle , 5 up 3 down.
why 105??
105 is the 21 of the higher trend 21*5.
so 7/105 keeps you with the trend of the current tf wave as long as it is on the right side of the trend of one higher timeframe.
Keep in mind 7/105 will deliver one whipsaw either in w2 or in w4 whichever is the sharp correction...
If you really want to understand this stuff then please take a perfect elliot wave plot it in detail down to 3 degrees and then try plotting a lot of moving averages to see which combinations will give what type of signals :)
Just remember this.
a really good system? Will work on all timeframes.
My system will only work till nifty is in the same cycle degree wave.
Meaning lets assume this is Wave I on a very very very very large scale :)
When the big bad perhaps even boring ?? or exciting?? depending on sharp/flat etc.. wave II comes. the cycles will change. It would not be prudent to anticipate a change in the cycle degree wave until the fundamentals of cycle degree change.
w1/w2 is built on insanely good fundas p.e.g of 0.5-0.618...
w3 on cycle degree is built on good fundas i.e p.e.g of 1 or lower
When we go into speculative territory p.e.g of >1.6
then we would in w5
(this by the way is my latest pet theory based on trying to tie up fundas and technicals. I have no proof of any of these concepts though i would definitely like to study this stuff if i could get a lot of data on all world indices including historical p.e ratios+ forward earnings estimates)
.... When wave5 of wave I or whatever is done at a p.e of say 30-50 then we can go into a 2-3-5 year bear market (again depends on sharp/flat correction if sharp u could end a bear market in 2)
For those who are wondering we haven't even begun the madness yet.
You want madness??? Please go see china p.e.g. of 2+++ Thats a w5 of some sort. That is speculation. Dubai last year hit p.e of 30 then corrected 50% from the highs. no not 50% retrace of last swing :) 50%.... from low to high.. full retrace, came back to a p.e of 15... from 30.
For now don't worry about a long term 2-3 year bear market, we're at a p.e of 19-20.. flat consolidation w4 material in the worst case, not bear market w5 top material. Don't exit all of your delivery no matter what everyone says. 2-3-6 months is all that this market is likely to manage to the downside. Because when we go to a p.e of 19/17/15 etc value buyers will be waiting.
So back to my old point why 7/105?? 105 hours is roughly 21 days. (Note I actually use a 70 minute chart so that my daily chart subdivides into 5 parts)
I also use 1/76 on hourly or 1/68 on 70 minute (which corresponds to being on the right side of the higher tf 13 ema of higher timeframe)
I have not finished my fractal oscillator system yet but it is coming along. The issue is that the middle 4 hours of the day are not created equal to the opening and closing 30 minutes.
Time is relative.
It is relative to volumes/trading activity.. When trading activity is hectic then time contracts and when trading is dull it expands. This was another one of my 'original theories' but I discovered that someone had already 'invented/discovered' the theory before me.. its called an equivolume chart
So maybe an equivolume chart might be of use.. I still have to experiment with variable time shifting mechanisms/equivolume
Amibroker doesn't seem to have built in support for a time dilation function so I am coding my own.
I had an interesting debate with someone
who thinks
7/105 on 10 minute outperforms 7/105 on hourly.
backtests prove 7/105 on hourly beats 7/105 on 10 minute
(I have tested the 2 viable combinations which small traders can use and my test is based on ground reality. There are 2 combinations viable for small traders
a) take nifty spot signal trade on futures
or b) take futures signal trade on futures
third option/fourth option is take spot entry and use futures exit or futures entry and spot exit all the while trading on futures.. all this is too chaotic. not tested yet. will have to wait for another day)
The best way to trade nifty spot??? Use nifty spot.. get neat. trade all of nifty.
My friend actually tested 7/105 on spot meaning he is backtesting on spot.......
which is artificial: actual returns will be inferior due to slippage/comissions in nf.
So point is my colleagues' testing method is flawed
Now as for point two which he made.
7/105 on hourly will only work on larger tf when nifty is trending.
If one truly truly understood the fractal nature of the market
He wouldn't be making this point.
My point stands. if 7/105 is tuned to the fractal structure of the market it will work in the same cycle degree wave almost equally well on 70 min/13 minute or hourly/10 minute.
When the system breaks down, which it inevitably will after cycle I
Then it will stop working on both hourly and 10 minute.
"Don't catch a falling knife"
I love to argue with people.
One must define
rising
falling
...
if you are following intra day charts.. trend down
if you are following eod/weekly? trend still intact!!
The mechanical 'knife catching/trend following' system says the following...
Always remember what is falling in one tf can be rising in the other.
That is the basis of alexander elder's tripple screen.
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
Buyarea=4179.67
S1:4,179.25 S2:4,200.28
R1:4,286.10 R2:4,352.06
Target1:4212.65 Target2:4245.63
Target3:4285.2
SL1:4153.29 SL2:4113.71
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
Buyarea=4143.14
S1:4,141.49 S2:4,174.95
R1:4,247.30 R2:4,312.63
Target1:4175.8 Target2:4208.46
Target3:4247.65
SL1:4117.01 SL2:4077.82
These are the two calls being genrated by the 'knife catcher'
This system is 50:50 and quite profitable if traded mechanically...
If you aren't comfy with catching the knife on the way down.. then read on for details and other ranting.
Best way to gamble is to take a call option. max risk is well defined in that case.
Only try long if u can handle the stoploss levels....
last time catching the falling knife worked at 4030.. it cannot work every time :)
If you refer to my post of last corrective. I had given buy calls on a whole list of stocks on the way down itself...
You know why there is always a buyer for nifty and a group shares? Even in a 'decline'?
Because someone is always sitting on cash to invest.
There is always some index fund out there which has a mandate to buy nifty/a group stocks daily.
Now in the face of such insane competition to buy nifty do you really want to trade nifty short?? Nifty usually doesn't get trashed nearly as much as midcaps ...
Which is why I like to invest in midcaps in any kind of correction. Which is why: my previous post requested people for good midcap picks... and I got exactly 0 responses :).
Total waste of time.. i swear thats what this blog is. a total waste. It is mostly an exercise in self glorification and egotism.
Now , back to nifty. Funds are always buying nifty they are the ones that give you the support regardless of the short term trend.
You know why??? They create the long term trend?? How?? As long as investors are willing to pump cash into mutual funds these guys have to buy. They cannot exactly sit on cash if they have been ordered by their investors to buy.
The smart investor will not even panic and exit nifty in a 10/20/30/40/50/60% drop because history teaches us that every dip is to be bought until the fundamental trend is up.... For those who actually try to learn from history that is. If you haven't learned anything yet then I suggest studying a dow jones chart along with a p.e band. Refer to previous posts. Only an investor has the luxury of holding nifty thru a huge dips all the way to 60-80-90% retracement :). Reason is the max loss? is initial capital. risk is limited. A leveraged trader needs a stoploss......
So if you are long on nifty? Pick a stop, stick with it.
Already reccomended profit booking yesterday on that 4000 call. It did double so you cannot complain. 100-120 buy price. low hit 86. high hit 280....
profit booking advised 200-240...
Have you ever wondered what the largest timeframe trend is??
Over the lifetime of an investor as long as the index is not purchased at a p.e.g >> 1 (using a 2 year valuation mechanism) the net returns on any major index will tend to outperform fixed deposits. (reason?? index companies don't go bankrupt, the major index usually represents the top companies of a nation, the backbone of its economic engine, also you get automatic portfolio management as companies get moved into and out of the index based on their size, risk with the main index is always very very small and is tied to macroeconomics like gdp growth etc rather than microeconomic fluctuations, also keep in mind inflation causes an upward bias/drift in stock prices so its easier to be long than short in the longest timeframes)
In the longest timeframes, the knife is almost always rising...
For now dip in progress. look to short. I prefer shorting stock futures at premium so that I can cover at near 0 premium or at discount in a panic. That gives extraordinary profits as compared to shorting nifty. You need to work out alpha/beta etc before you figure out which stocks to short and in what ratio if you want to emulate return of nifty to upside/downside. clearly shorting all 50 nifty stocks though ideal is not feasible. Mind you shorting 50 futures contracts in the right ratio. i.e basket selling futures will be a better idea than shorting nifty futures. reason?? NF often goes into a discount in a drop and when short stoplosses get hit it goes into a premium. My favorite short side stocks usually are sbi/rcom. They generally perform in line with nifty on the downside. Beta is >1 which means higher leverage/lower comissions (as % of volatilty) and as opposed to nifty these 2 can be shorted at premiums even in a decline.
Today looking for maybe 1260-1250 below 1280 in sbi and rcom 480 below 494.
if you want to learn how to juggle falling knives, then you really need to be very very quick with your levels.
Fibonacci/ewt or very very quick with intraday chart patterns like my friend rajnish who seems to have a crazy knack for picking hns and inv hns intraday on a 1 min chart :).
No real way to prove that it even works and it doesn't work for me... but it works for him.
What works for me??
For those who want to use something that works for me ? (will it work for u? I don't know.. can u handle being wrong 50-60% of the time?? right only 40%? but making 2x losses on the wins??)
http://niftytraders.blogspot.com
7/105
Why 7/105?? its near optimal on automated backtests... What is the theoretical significance??
8 is the smallest elliot wave cycle , 5 up 3 down.
why 105??
105 is the 21 of the higher trend 21*5.
so 7/105 keeps you with the trend of the current tf wave as long as it is on the right side of the trend of one higher timeframe.
Keep in mind 7/105 will deliver one whipsaw either in w2 or in w4 whichever is the sharp correction...
If you really want to understand this stuff then please take a perfect elliot wave plot it in detail down to 3 degrees and then try plotting a lot of moving averages to see which combinations will give what type of signals :)
Just remember this.
a really good system? Will work on all timeframes.
My system will only work till nifty is in the same cycle degree wave.
Meaning lets assume this is Wave I on a very very very very large scale :)
When the big bad perhaps even boring ?? or exciting?? depending on sharp/flat etc.. wave II comes. the cycles will change. It would not be prudent to anticipate a change in the cycle degree wave until the fundamentals of cycle degree change.
w1/w2 is built on insanely good fundas p.e.g of 0.5-0.618...
w3 on cycle degree is built on good fundas i.e p.e.g of 1 or lower
When we go into speculative territory p.e.g of >1.6
then we would in w5
(this by the way is my latest pet theory based on trying to tie up fundas and technicals. I have no proof of any of these concepts though i would definitely like to study this stuff if i could get a lot of data on all world indices including historical p.e ratios+ forward earnings estimates)
.... When wave5 of wave I or whatever is done at a p.e of say 30-50 then we can go into a 2-3-5 year bear market (again depends on sharp/flat correction if sharp u could end a bear market in 2)
For those who are wondering we haven't even begun the madness yet.
You want madness??? Please go see china p.e.g. of 2+++ Thats a w5 of some sort. That is speculation. Dubai last year hit p.e of 30 then corrected 50% from the highs. no not 50% retrace of last swing :) 50%.... from low to high.. full retrace, came back to a p.e of 15... from 30.
For now don't worry about a long term 2-3 year bear market, we're at a p.e of 19-20.. flat consolidation w4 material in the worst case, not bear market w5 top material. Don't exit all of your delivery no matter what everyone says. 2-3-6 months is all that this market is likely to manage to the downside. Because when we go to a p.e of 19/17/15 etc value buyers will be waiting.
So back to my old point why 7/105?? 105 hours is roughly 21 days. (Note I actually use a 70 minute chart so that my daily chart subdivides into 5 parts)
I also use 1/76 on hourly or 1/68 on 70 minute (which corresponds to being on the right side of the higher tf 13 ema of higher timeframe)
I have not finished my fractal oscillator system yet but it is coming along. The issue is that the middle 4 hours of the day are not created equal to the opening and closing 30 minutes.
Time is relative.
It is relative to volumes/trading activity.. When trading activity is hectic then time contracts and when trading is dull it expands. This was another one of my 'original theories' but I discovered that someone had already 'invented/discovered' the theory before me.. its called an equivolume chart
So maybe an equivolume chart might be of use.. I still have to experiment with variable time shifting mechanisms/equivolume
Amibroker doesn't seem to have built in support for a time dilation function so I am coding my own.
I had an interesting debate with someone
who thinks
7/105 on 10 minute outperforms 7/105 on hourly.
backtests prove 7/105 on hourly beats 7/105 on 10 minute
(I have tested the 2 viable combinations which small traders can use and my test is based on ground reality. There are 2 combinations viable for small traders
a) take nifty spot signal trade on futures
or b) take futures signal trade on futures
third option/fourth option is take spot entry and use futures exit or futures entry and spot exit all the while trading on futures.. all this is too chaotic. not tested yet. will have to wait for another day)
The best way to trade nifty spot??? Use nifty spot.. get neat. trade all of nifty.
My friend actually tested 7/105 on spot meaning he is backtesting on spot.......
which is artificial: actual returns will be inferior due to slippage/comissions in nf.
So point is my colleagues' testing method is flawed
Now as for point two which he made.
7/105 on hourly will only work on larger tf when nifty is trending.
If one truly truly understood the fractal nature of the market
He wouldn't be making this point.
My point stands. if 7/105 is tuned to the fractal structure of the market it will work in the same cycle degree wave almost equally well on 70 min/13 minute or hourly/10 minute.
When the system breaks down, which it inevitably will after cycle I
Then it will stop working on both hourly and 10 minute.
Need good funda picks
Here's your chance to share any useful info you might have
I am looking for stocks that meet the following criteria
p.e of 5-10 max
midcap
growth rate 30-50-100%
debt/equity<1.5
or midcap
+debt/equity<1.5
p.e.g of <0.7
based on fy09/fy10 estimates.
If you have a way to automate this search then let me know as well.
Currently i think the only way to get this info might be the capital one database but that costs 50k a year and I don't have it.
I don't know how to find such stocks.
Maybe a search can be conducted in the capital one database??
If u know any stocks that meet this criteria
leave your picks in the comments section.
My top two picks are
prithvi/aftekinfo based on this criteria
aftek reccomended in crash near 56 levels (nifty 3556)
and prithvi reccomended on first dip after good results near 277
No trading, pure investing in these kinds of picks.
I am looking for stocks that meet the following criteria
p.e of 5-10 max
midcap
growth rate 30-50-100%
debt/equity<1.5
or midcap
+debt/equity<1.5
p.e.g of <0.7
based on fy09/fy10 estimates.
If you have a way to automate this search then let me know as well.
Currently i think the only way to get this info might be the capital one database but that costs 50k a year and I don't have it.
I don't know how to find such stocks.
Maybe a search can be conducted in the capital one database??
If u know any stocks that meet this criteria
leave your picks in the comments section.
My top two picks are
prithvi/aftekinfo based on this criteria
aftek reccomended in crash near 56 levels (nifty 3556)
and prithvi reccomended on first dip after good results near 277
No trading, pure investing in these kinds of picks.
Quotes
SUM IIT: pEOPLE COME TO STOCK MKT WITH LOT OF MONEY AND ZERO EXPERIENCE.........tHEYLEAVE MKT WITH LOTS OF EXPERIENCE AND ZERO MONEY.
Raja: a beginner starts in the market with a bag full of money+luck and an empty bag of experience+widsom. The key is to fill up the second bag before the first one runs out.
-Source of quote : unknown-
Raja: a beginner starts in the market with a bag full of money+luck and an empty bag of experience+widsom. The key is to fill up the second bag before the first one runs out.
-Source of quote : unknown-
Favorite bull market saying resurfaces: Be cautious :)
Last line of defense 4180/4150/4130
if u check move from 399x recent lows near 4030 doublish bottom/triangular/flat correction whatever the hell it was
u will be able to make a 5 legged move.
from lows
now if we are going to do a beautiful extension then bulls need to defend 4180-4150
then we can go much much higher, 4400-4672-4900 and what not.
If we start breaking supports under 4150 then one seriously has to start trading more on the short side.
sbi short covered today near 1290
but it did the 1280 target.
Buy zone is actually only 1260-1212
anything higher is a very very risky buy.
sl 1200 for sbi bulls
rcom watch 480 for support
hll 200+
Some stocks are already breaking rising 13/21/34 ema on closing basis which is my definition of the trend.
Those can be suitable shorting candidates.
21 ema roughly reflects the trend of the weekly chart. i.e price action over last 3-4 weeks so its a good way to follow a stocks direction
if u check move from 399x recent lows near 4030 doublish bottom/triangular/flat correction whatever the hell it was
u will be able to make a 5 legged move.
from lows
now if we are going to do a beautiful extension then bulls need to defend 4180-4150
then we can go much much higher, 4400-4672-4900 and what not.
If we start breaking supports under 4150 then one seriously has to start trading more on the short side.
sbi short covered today near 1290
but it did the 1280 target.
Buy zone is actually only 1260-1212
anything higher is a very very risky buy.
sl 1200 for sbi bulls
rcom watch 480 for support
hll 200+
Some stocks are already breaking rising 13/21/34 ema on closing basis which is my definition of the trend.
Those can be suitable shorting candidates.
21 ema roughly reflects the trend of the weekly chart. i.e price action over last 3-4 weeks so its a good way to follow a stocks direction
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Is the top done? can 4180 hold??
Watch out for hll, 200+ looks strong in a weak market.
Lately has had -ve beta
Long term investors should seriously consider exposure
13 month ema 186
21 month ema 175.6
these are very very long term chart levels
should lead to 230-250-270 risk maybe 160-156-145 max damage in a bear move.
Reliance could be the stock of the decade.
All depends on how well the retail venture points out.
As for petrochem, that is passe, earnings 77-80-88 in next few years maybe
max you would really want to pay for that?? 1200 rs a share.
Reliance is being priced for something bigger than petrochem now.
Keep this number in the back of your mind
u.s walmart ipo, 1970
The stock is up 17,000 times or so.........
Lately has had -ve beta
Long term investors should seriously consider exposure
13 month ema 186
21 month ema 175.6
these are very very long term chart levels
should lead to 230-250-270 risk maybe 160-156-145 max damage in a bear move.
Reliance could be the stock of the decade.
All depends on how well the retail venture points out.
As for petrochem, that is passe, earnings 77-80-88 in next few years maybe
max you would really want to pay for that?? 1200 rs a share.
Reliance is being priced for something bigger than petrochem now.
Keep this number in the back of your mind
u.s walmart ipo, 1970
The stock is up 17,000 times or so.........
Rcom
Every single punter wanted rcom above 520+
clearly time to sell and reenter lower :)
490-480 highest reenty
470 sl
i heard rcom is going to bid for idea?
If thats gonna go thru then rcom will stay weak and idea will be stronger.
Whoever overpays is to be shorted and the one who gets taken over is to be bought.
Standard arbitrage
clearly time to sell and reenter lower :)
490-480 highest reenty
470 sl
i heard rcom is going to bid for idea?
If thats gonna go thru then rcom will stay weak and idea will be stronger.
Whoever overpays is to be shorted and the one who gets taken over is to be bought.
Standard arbitrage
China has hit a p.e of 50
4000 or something is what their index is now at...
50 times
earnings
one word
bubble
i don't care how you value it, a large can index just cannot be worth 50x
Its gonna crash by the end of this year.
Unless of course someone can find me one index which managed to sustain 50+ p.e for 1 year??
We're at only 20x but the shockwave of a meltdown in china would be felt around the globe.
Would be fun if we could get to 25-35x before the global meltdown begins.
50 times
earnings
one word
bubble
i don't care how you value it, a large can index just cannot be worth 50x
Its gonna crash by the end of this year.
Unless of course someone can find me one index which managed to sustain 50+ p.e for 1 year??
We're at only 20x but the shockwave of a meltdown in china would be felt around the globe.
Would be fun if we could get to 25-35x before the global meltdown begins.
Quote
Thought For A Day:- "Direction is more important than speed.We are so busy looking at our speedometers that we forget the milestone."
-Sunil Bohra
no idea of orignal source if any.
But got this is in an email.
-Sunil Bohra
no idea of orignal source if any.
But got this is in an email.
Are the bulls panicking yet? Don't: breakout of 4240 intact.
Nifty gap up 4249-4236 nf rates first support
then next gap up 4198-4212 then 4093-4100 nf.
Lots and lots of gap ups
The initial breakout area remains key 4150-4180 for upward momentum.
My view remains 4400 possible above 3900 but seriously
@ 4240?? risk?
Reward?
Trade??
Is there a trade??
Here is my advice for people who are long 400 call for 100-120
old reco.
Book for 240-280
And switch to 4350 call
More speculative, less risk but decent reward/risk if you play the levels right.
if we do 4400-4440, then the call would tripple/quadruple otherwise call goes to 0
Last price i saw was 10-20 rs.
Today i was accused of causing a panic
By saying bulls stuck in sbi futures @ 1328 .........
sl 1333 target 1308. Didn't quite work out because i went to sleep after taking the trade. Otherwise should have covered at 1308. I hope i get an exit tomorrow.
1296-1280-1260 ideally below 1308 but sbi is a bit strong.
Sbi bulls should only look to buy around 1252-1218 in my view. But we'll see tomorrow.
Just remember one thing. My breakout calls are horrible. They don't work.
I am not a breakout trader. I haven't been able to prove to myself that breakout trading even works on stocks. If you have proof please do enlighten me.
Proof of any technique working is risk adjusted returns superior to buy+hold when using actual trades. (meaning if u do in delivery use delivery brokerage, if u test in fno test with fno brokerage, don't run a test on delivery with 0.06% brokerage. Trading breakouts in delivery will work really well and look amazing even though the strategy can only be executed by big institutions and not us traders who have to pay almost 0.7-1% for delivery including all taxes etc)
then next gap up 4198-4212 then 4093-4100 nf.
Lots and lots of gap ups
The initial breakout area remains key 4150-4180 for upward momentum.
My view remains 4400 possible above 3900 but seriously
@ 4240?? risk?
Reward?
Trade??
Is there a trade??
Here is my advice for people who are long 400 call for 100-120
old reco.
Book for 240-280
And switch to 4350 call
More speculative, less risk but decent reward/risk if you play the levels right.
if we do 4400-4440, then the call would tripple/quadruple otherwise call goes to 0
Last price i saw was 10-20 rs.
Today i was accused of causing a panic
By saying bulls stuck in sbi futures @ 1328 .........
sl 1333 target 1308. Didn't quite work out because i went to sleep after taking the trade. Otherwise should have covered at 1308. I hope i get an exit tomorrow.
1296-1280-1260 ideally below 1308 but sbi is a bit strong.
Sbi bulls should only look to buy around 1252-1218 in my view. But we'll see tomorrow.
Just remember one thing. My breakout calls are horrible. They don't work.
I am not a breakout trader. I haven't been able to prove to myself that breakout trading even works on stocks. If you have proof please do enlighten me.
Proof of any technique working is risk adjusted returns superior to buy+hold when using actual trades. (meaning if u do in delivery use delivery brokerage, if u test in fno test with fno brokerage, don't run a test on delivery with 0.06% brokerage. Trading breakouts in delivery will work really well and look amazing even though the strategy can only be executed by big institutions and not us traders who have to pay almost 0.7-1% for delivery including all taxes etc)
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
more picks
Stock Name: VIJAYABANK-I
Buyarea=48.025
S1:47.64 S2:48.56
R1:51.04 R2:53.14
Target1:49.0748 Target2:50.1245
Target3:51.3841
SL1:47.1853 SL2:45.9256
Buyarea=48.025
S1:47.64 S2:48.56
R1:51.04 R2:53.14
Target1:49.0748 Target2:50.1245
Target3:51.3841
SL1:47.1853 SL2:45.9256
SRF:Breakout from congestion
SRF, Analysis Date:5/22/2007
Close/cmp:169.65
Swing : Up=Buy ( 10.000% sensitivity)
T1:171.949 T2:184.604
T3:205.253 1xR:190.7
ImpulseTargetZone:217.909-238.557
SwingHigh:171.0 CMP:169.6
SwingLow:140.1 SLPivot:151.3
2xAtr14Stop:16.5145
Narrowsl:151.30
WideSl:139.09
TrailingSL:157.15
Pt1=171
Pt2=151.3
Lower Chan:156.145 Upper Chan:184.309
ResLine:190.494
If trading the breakout you want to see momentum above 171
if prices get back under 166 something might be wrong.
Few short term picks, meant for fno trading
Only trade in fno
short term volatilty can be used to make money even without a trend.
Look to exit the position within 3 trades.
Trade half position like the market will go against you as soon as it moves in favour
and trade other half like the trend might continue in your favour
Stock Name: MTNL-I
Buyarea=153.832
S1:153.82 S2:154.19
R1:161.19 R2:165.75
Target1:156.109 Target2:158.385
Target3:161.117
SL1:152.011 SL2:149.279
Stock Name: ESCORTS-I
Buyarea=127.364
S1:127.35 S2:128.15
R1:135.40 R2:140.37
Target1:129.849 Target2:132.333
Target3:135.315
SL1:125.376 SL2:122.395
Stock Name: MAHSEAMLES-I
Buyarea=563.382
S1:563.33 S2:569.23
R1:590.24 R2:606.86
Target1:571.69 Target2:579.998
Target3:589.967
SL1:556.735 SL2:546.766
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: INDHOTEL-I
Buyarea=142.754
S1:142.74 S2:142.46
R1:149.87 R2:154.27
Target1:144.954 Target2:147.155
Target3:149.795
SL1:140.994 SL2:138.354
Example of how a short term trade can give a big profit if sl is not hit???
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: CENTURYTEX
Buyarea=576.818
S1:576.76 S2:584.05
R1:623.12 R2:651.73
Target1:591.125 Target2:605.433
Target3:622.602
SL1:565.372 SL2:548.203
sl1 was hit, 565. Thats the intraday trader's sl
so reentry would have been taken after a few days when it was proven that s1/s2 were holding.
for positional trader sl2 was never hit...
This trade setup was mentioned in mahen's conf.
Century sl 548 not hit cmp 650.....
entry 576? sl 548?
max drawdown=? 28 pts
total profit? 74 pts.
3x initial risk is usually a good place to take a full exit on these type of trade setups.
You want to stay invested??
Then take 1/10th of the profit made in futures and buy delivery.
Fno is not a place to do long term positional trading, the premium alone makes sure u lose 12% per year from trading the long side of stocks in fno.
Another old trade setup given in mahen's conf.
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: SRF
Buyarea=151.78
S1:151.76 S2:154.79
R1:165.26 R2:173.60
Target1:155.946 Target2:160.113
Target3:165.112
SL1:148.447 SL2:143.447
Srf... this was after telling people to not enter near res at 170..
The punter call on yahoo was buy 10-100-200 lots of srf near 168 and make millions.
My response was the only thing more likely than making millions in a day is losing millions.
Those who bought at 168?? Didn't have a stoploss?
10% dip=50% capital gone down the drain.
After hitting my support level srf not only rebounded but has hit all targets + res levels, the breakout traders will be getting excited one again and for good reason.
The real move in srf is yet to come. target looks like 216 zone. ITs only been doing a sideways corrective so far.
short term volatilty can be used to make money even without a trend.
Look to exit the position within 3 trades.
Trade half position like the market will go against you as soon as it moves in favour
and trade other half like the trend might continue in your favour
Stock Name: MTNL-I
Buyarea=153.832
S1:153.82 S2:154.19
R1:161.19 R2:165.75
Target1:156.109 Target2:158.385
Target3:161.117
SL1:152.011 SL2:149.279
Stock Name: ESCORTS-I
Buyarea=127.364
S1:127.35 S2:128.15
R1:135.40 R2:140.37
Target1:129.849 Target2:132.333
Target3:135.315
SL1:125.376 SL2:122.395
Stock Name: MAHSEAMLES-I
Buyarea=563.382
S1:563.33 S2:569.23
R1:590.24 R2:606.86
Target1:571.69 Target2:579.998
Target3:589.967
SL1:556.735 SL2:546.766
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: INDHOTEL-I
Buyarea=142.754
S1:142.74 S2:142.46
R1:149.87 R2:154.27
Target1:144.954 Target2:147.155
Target3:149.795
SL1:140.994 SL2:138.354
Example of how a short term trade can give a big profit if sl is not hit???
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: CENTURYTEX
Buyarea=576.818
S1:576.76 S2:584.05
R1:623.12 R2:651.73
Target1:591.125 Target2:605.433
Target3:622.602
SL1:565.372 SL2:548.203
sl1 was hit, 565. Thats the intraday trader's sl
so reentry would have been taken after a few days when it was proven that s1/s2 were holding.
for positional trader sl2 was never hit...
This trade setup was mentioned in mahen's conf.
Century sl 548 not hit cmp 650.....
entry 576? sl 548?
max drawdown=? 28 pts
total profit? 74 pts.
3x initial risk is usually a good place to take a full exit on these type of trade setups.
You want to stay invested??
Then take 1/10th of the profit made in futures and buy delivery.
Fno is not a place to do long term positional trading, the premium alone makes sure u lose 12% per year from trading the long side of stocks in fno.
Another old trade setup given in mahen's conf.
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: SRF
Buyarea=151.78
S1:151.76 S2:154.79
R1:165.26 R2:173.60
Target1:155.946 Target2:160.113
Target3:165.112
SL1:148.447 SL2:143.447
Srf... this was after telling people to not enter near res at 170..
The punter call on yahoo was buy 10-100-200 lots of srf near 168 and make millions.
My response was the only thing more likely than making millions in a day is losing millions.
Those who bought at 168?? Didn't have a stoploss?
10% dip=50% capital gone down the drain.
After hitting my support level srf not only rebounded but has hit all targets + res levels, the breakout traders will be getting excited one again and for good reason.
The real move in srf is yet to come. target looks like 216 zone. ITs only been doing a sideways corrective so far.
Monday, May 21, 2007
Nifty w5 view remains intact
Watch upper channel, t1/t2/t3 etc etc
if this is an extension
Market might touch 5000-6000 before the end of this year
in a crazy move and top out
for 2-3 years.
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2007/05/nifty-possible-w5.html
if this is an extension
Market might touch 5000-6000 before the end of this year
in a crazy move and top out
for 2-3 years.
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2007/05/nifty-possible-w5.html
Fundamentals in action
a) fundamentals work in the long term
b) the long term trend overrides the short term trend
hence fundamentals override technicals?????
Anyone who disagrees
look at what happened to the breakout in bajajhind earlier.
The initial breakout was killed completely. It turns out it was a wave b or wave c or something, full retrace as opposed to the breakout in nifty.
When the fundamentals are not aligned with the technicals the market might zigzag in a lazy fashion. abc , abc, abc. When the fundas and technicals both point up, you get a proper impulse , see nifty/rcom etc. If you are still not convinced, keep watching jetair. It keeps getting into trouble near 800. Expected to post mild losses in next 2 years before any major recovery. Once the Indian airline industry goes through a proper consolidation and gets rid of these small players+price wars that they create we can expect better times for jetair. Stock will double in 5 years.
But first it will totally kill any trend following system.
Anyway bajajhind expected eps fy09 maybe 21 or so if sugar prices recover, target 210-230 in 1-2 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/funds/understanding_investing/article/100592/Why_Have_Stocks_Provided_Long-Term_Real_Returns_of_7%25
Why Have Stocks Provided Long-Term Real Returns of 7%?
Excerpted from Common Sense on Mutual Funds by John C. Bogle, pages 36-37
We can use the historical data to answer a simple question: Why have stocks provided long-term real returns of 7 percent? Answer: Almost entirely because of the rising earnings and dividends of U.S. corporations. The sum of real dividend yields and earnings growth generated during 1871-1997, adjusted for inflation, equals 6.7 percent in real terms. In other words, the total long-term real return on stocks derived from dividend yields and earnings is virtually identical to the 7 percent real return actually provided by the stock
b) the long term trend overrides the short term trend
hence fundamentals override technicals?????
Anyone who disagrees
look at what happened to the breakout in bajajhind earlier.
The initial breakout was killed completely. It turns out it was a wave b or wave c or something, full retrace as opposed to the breakout in nifty.
When the fundamentals are not aligned with the technicals the market might zigzag in a lazy fashion. abc , abc, abc. When the fundas and technicals both point up, you get a proper impulse , see nifty/rcom etc. If you are still not convinced, keep watching jetair. It keeps getting into trouble near 800. Expected to post mild losses in next 2 years before any major recovery. Once the Indian airline industry goes through a proper consolidation and gets rid of these small players+price wars that they create we can expect better times for jetair. Stock will double in 5 years.
But first it will totally kill any trend following system.
Anyway bajajhind expected eps fy09 maybe 21 or so if sugar prices recover, target 210-230 in 1-2 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/funds/understanding_investing/article/100592/Why_Have_Stocks_Provided_Long-Term_Real_Returns_of_7%25
Why Have Stocks Provided Long-Term Real Returns of 7%?
Excerpted from Common Sense on Mutual Funds by John C. Bogle, pages 36-37
We can use the historical data to answer a simple question: Why have stocks provided long-term real returns of 7 percent? Answer: Almost entirely because of the rising earnings and dividends of U.S. corporations. The sum of real dividend yields and earnings growth generated during 1871-1997, adjusted for inflation, equals 6.7 percent in real terms. In other words, the total long-term real return on stocks derived from dividend yields and earnings is virtually identical to the 7 percent real return actually provided by the stock
Buy tcs in delivery
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: TCS
Buyarea=1230.71
S1:1,230.58 S2:1,244.51
R1:1,369.26 R2:1,454.87
Target1:1273.51 Target2:1316.31
Target3:1367.67
SL1:1213.59 SL2:1145.1
Arithmetic vs log
First two pictures are arithmetic
Notice how the arithmetic t3 was 3062
actual market top was at log t3 3774-3782 which was the log t3 target area.
Most people don't give log levels because they use standard tools like amibroker/ms/aget which do not yet offer log fibonacci levels.
Notice how the arithmetic t3 was 3062
actual market top was at log t3 3774-3782 which was the log t3 target area.
Most people don't give log levels because they use standard tools like amibroker/ms/aget which do not yet offer log fibonacci levels.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)