Nifty wave5 next or Nifty wave 2/b pullback?

50:50 really

use options

from an ema perspective

falling weekly 13 ema = 3886, rising 13 ema = 3746

50% retrace of 3570-3887 reads 3717

if we go higher above 3887 then the 50% retracement target changes

In this world of 50:50 i would not bet on a big run away trend.

The earlier panic of japanese rate hikes+liquidity crunch is now lower because we have fed on hold which means extra liquidity splashing around.

Keep in mind Indian inflation problems.

Growth is fine, only concern is inflation and further hikes by the rbi

If rbi hikes again then u will see pressure on interest rate sensitives once again.

Autos/banks most sensitive to this stuff

and IT will be most resistant to declines in any bear moves.

The u.s , the dow and us.

Kapil Marwaha: dow nasdaq flat to down
Raja Kumar: yes
Raja Kumar: dow ran into 0.618
Raja Kumar: or will run in
Raja Kumar: soon
Raja Kumar: 12.49k
Raja Kumar: we're slightly weaker
Raja Kumar: see last time
Raja Kumar: dow did almost 0.5
Raja Kumar: we failed 0.382
Raja Kumar: this time dow might fail 0.618
Raja Kumar: we might fail 0.5
fact remains i don't know where the top will be 0.5/0.618 or 0.7?
maybe just a gap fill from 0.5.618??
and the bigger drop later?
gap fill target is 3760
truth is i don't know
hence i suggest buying put options for march target 3760 gap fill/50% retracement of initial rally (meaning no matter what the trend is 3556-xxxx wherever we stop. 50% retracement is insanely likely)

and for april potential target 3656-3570 retest
the stoploss is the price of the put option

the 3640 call taken at 80 rs already did both targets
100% and 200% gain
160/240 so that really should be sold now.

2 steps ahead of the market still??

wave a up of B from 3556 low - 3800
wave b down of B from 3800-3570 ish
wave c up in progress
bearish count, only short under 3840
initial target gap fill till 3760 then lower depending on how the gap up area behaves.

aggressive traders will short near 3860 nf upper end of gap down for a gap fill
I'm tempted to wait for 3900

Just a note of caution
in 2004 wave B up did 70% retracement

corresponding level reads 4032 nifty right now

Dow breaks out

Dow breaks out above 12.3k+ after fed didn't hike
This usually happens and global equity markets usually use this as an excuse to rally.
This pattern has worked last 10 times.
we should try 3775/3800 breakout
3840-3900 targets

Bhel 2100-2200 range
baxy 330-340 range
rcom 416-434-440 range

Remember the slightly longer term view.
50-70% retracement of entire fall
and then more downsides
The alternate bullish possibility is that 3556 will hold and 4440 will come

3900 or so is where i would hunt for positional shorts regardless of what cnbc analysts are saying
remember cnbc was saying don't catch this falling knife at 200 dma

I mean we buy the year around
every day everyone reccomends a buy
and then at the moment of reckoning
when nifty pulls back to 200 dma for the first time in the year you can't reccomend a buy??
How silly is that?? Everyone who bought the year around is sitting long with avg price of 200 dma in their portfolio. If you take us below 200 dma then there are no profits too book!!!!!


remember 2004 top
Tops take a while to form I expect a c wave to the downside but this B wave sideways could take a long long time.
3840-3900-3940 are likely
bulls will only hit the panic button below the 200 dma thats when we have to worry about stuff like lower circuit.


If you don't like predicting nifty
then use a proper trend following system
7/105 on 10 mins or 7/105 on hourly are both suitable
http://niftytraders.blogspot.com

Nifty about to begin wc/w3 type move

3800+ breakout begins
might be a fake upmove but probably best to stick with longs 3840-3900-3930 target
right now 13 ema support 3720
21 ema res 3775
2 important levels to watch for for next few days.

Earlier triangle broke down and we did 3570 target to downside.
Now we can get a wc/w3 type breakout which can do my old target of 3900
which is 50% retracement of entire fall.
If you wanna be a mega bear then 3800-3840 are your key resistances.
If a mild bear then 3900
if a mega bull then a new high is always possible :)

Panic selling below 200 dma which reads 3570 ish

cnbc is run by *****!!!

cnbc= sell potato at y rs buy at x rs, gain of 9k rs on 11k investment???
a) trading !=investing
b) they should be saying risk of 3k, reward of 9k or something
Based on the the advised stoploss for the trade.
But this is Indian tv a lot like the chat rooms/technical analysts on yahoo
pure brilliance.

Nifty watch res near 13/21 ema , select stocks might breakout

3800/3840 nifty for breakouts to upside+ bottom confirmation
Dow jones if flat correction then 11.9 should hold and 12.3k should break
Fomc meeting tonight
Usually when fed stays flat we get a trong upmove.
already damn close to gap down res 3700-3720 if cleared then 3780-3800-3840

Pharma is looking good to me.
Eod short term bottom levels are being reconquered in pharma.
Ranbaxy above 340 will go back to 375-400
Seems like baxy is out of the merck acquisition race. big positive for baxy.
Orchid is already challenging 270 again above 270, 293/300/320 region
Divis is above 2900 again
watch the 13/21 ema res area carefully when trading long on all pharma
Same on nifty has not been retaken yet completely. We are still facing solid res at 13 ema

Strong stocks on ema scans

Pharma longs can probably be hedged by shorting cipla.
which looks quite weak.
Weakness might be connected to interest in acquiring merck.
Cipla+ranbaxy are still in from what I have heard while dr.red is out of the race.
Going by recent history, indian stocks which ended up 'overpaying' as defined by subsequent downtrend in stock prices :) since i have no other means of calculating the fundas.
Tatatea,tisco,hindalco
Dr. red rallied like crazy when it acquired betapharm. So i guess there are always two sides to the coin.
Cipla has support near 209-215 and res near 231-234-241.
Can test 208/203/200/193/163 if it turns weak.
Downmove would gain momentum below 220.



List of strong stocks
IPCL in particular looks interesting.
News driven ipcl holders to get reliance shares?
5:1 would mean ipcl should trade at 1300/5=260
at 4:1 ipcl would trade at 325

one could in theory lock in gains buy buying ipcl cash and shorting reliance futures if one knew for sure that the deal was going to be concluded and the share ratio.



Ticker Date/Time C EMA1 EMA2 EMA3 EMA4 ts pb ValueRisk ATR Im1 Im2 R/R BIm1 BIm2
DRREDDY 3/16/2007 683.60 666.94 677.62 719.99 731.40 -11 2 0.88 4.21 1 0 4.77 0 51
IPCL 3/16/2007 260.45 258.38 260.01 271.64 275.61 -11 3 0.17 4.71 1 0 27.94 0 47
MTNL 3/16/2007 142.05 141.60 143.05 147.86 149.05 -19 1 -0.70 5.07 1 0 7.25 0 29
NICOLASPIR 3/16/2007 231.15 227.99 230.87 242.55 242.34 -11 2 0.12 5.71 1 0 46.57 0 37
TVSMOTOR 3/16/2007 61.45 60.50 62.56 72.16 79.70 -19 1 -1.78 5.54 1 0 3.12 0 104
WOCKPHARMA 3/16/2007 364.25 365.42 362.09 359.96 364.63 -13 2 0.60 4.54 0 0 7.60 6 5

Wockhardt looks like its in a lot of triangles should break up after consolidation
dr.red looks like inv hns could break up
tvs motor might be forming a bottom near 54 but a retest of 54 is likely (its a 2 year low for tvs). So tvs might be a short as soon as it shows any weakness

Pharma looking strong in a weak market

Lots of pharma stocks showing strength.
Orchid/dr.red look interesting.
Check bse health, seems closer to its trendline than sensex.
Orchid watch 235+ for continuation of upmove
weak below 245
Dr.red can recover till 700-720 if it holds above 680 intraday

Cements=weakest, sell on every rally mode in cements but i think some of them will be approaching may parallel channels , u might see some bounce from the channel even if the down move continues later.