Sunday, March 18, 2007

Strong stocks on ema scans

Pharma longs can probably be hedged by shorting cipla.
which looks quite weak.
Weakness might be connected to interest in acquiring merck.
Cipla+ranbaxy are still in from what I have heard while dr.red is out of the race.
Going by recent history, indian stocks which ended up 'overpaying' as defined by subsequent downtrend in stock prices :) since i have no other means of calculating the fundas.
Tatatea,tisco,hindalco
Dr. red rallied like crazy when it acquired betapharm. So i guess there are always two sides to the coin.
Cipla has support near 209-215 and res near 231-234-241.
Can test 208/203/200/193/163 if it turns weak.
Downmove would gain momentum below 220.



List of strong stocks
IPCL in particular looks interesting.
News driven ipcl holders to get reliance shares?
5:1 would mean ipcl should trade at 1300/5=260
at 4:1 ipcl would trade at 325

one could in theory lock in gains buy buying ipcl cash and shorting reliance futures if one knew for sure that the deal was going to be concluded and the share ratio.



Ticker Date/Time C EMA1 EMA2 EMA3 EMA4 ts pb ValueRisk ATR Im1 Im2 R/R BIm1 BIm2
DRREDDY 3/16/2007 683.60 666.94 677.62 719.99 731.40 -11 2 0.88 4.21 1 0 4.77 0 51
IPCL 3/16/2007 260.45 258.38 260.01 271.64 275.61 -11 3 0.17 4.71 1 0 27.94 0 47
MTNL 3/16/2007 142.05 141.60 143.05 147.86 149.05 -19 1 -0.70 5.07 1 0 7.25 0 29
NICOLASPIR 3/16/2007 231.15 227.99 230.87 242.55 242.34 -11 2 0.12 5.71 1 0 46.57 0 37
TVSMOTOR 3/16/2007 61.45 60.50 62.56 72.16 79.70 -19 1 -1.78 5.54 1 0 3.12 0 104
WOCKPHARMA 3/16/2007 364.25 365.42 362.09 359.96 364.63 -13 2 0.60 4.54 0 0 7.60 6 5


Wockhardt looks like its in a lot of triangles should break up after consolidation
dr.red looks like inv hns could break up
tvs motor might be forming a bottom near 54 but a retest of 54 is likely (its a 2 year low for tvs). So tvs might be a short as soon as it shows any weakness


No comments: