Friday, June 01, 2007

The modern economic machine

In the old days if you taught someone, they would owe you.
Have you heard of eklayva?
These days people will learn from you and forget you.
We live in a world where children kick their parents out of their homes and students mock their teachers.

Funny how the world changes.
Thats why in the modern age we have something called money. Its an easy way to track favours.
In the old days when people lived in villages and everyone knew everyone it was a different story. You could easily track favors, you had barter, you had a social heirarchy of respect.
These days we have money.
However since most people are not comfortable paying atleast try not to waste too much of my time either?
If I am a TA and you are a TA we don't have much to offer each other, we can waste time arguing about levels we will get no where.
If you are a technical analyst the first thing u need to do to get on my good books is to offer me knowledge/information. Failiure to give something before u ask for something just puts you on the wrong side of my lists.
I have already programmed stuff that does in 1 minute same amount of work which a technical analyst will do in 1 hour.
Are you a good programmer? Then you can automate the process...
Who would like to give me code that rips fundamental data+news from asiancerc/idbi/icicidirect/kotak/indiabulls etc any one of those sites?
Anyone? for free?? :)
I'll trade an automated fundamental ripper with full source for a copy of elder's tripple screen with full source!! I have no issues with barter. I just expect my work to be treated with the same respect as yours. Of course if you are not working hard.... then the problem lies with you, not with me or my attitudes.

If I am a technical analyst and you are a fundamental analyst then we can collaborate.
If you are a budding technical/fundamental analyst and you don't know how to program either but you still wish to learn I have lots of chores you can do.
Want one?? go to icicidirect convert all multex estimates/brokerage ratings fy08/fy09 for fno stocks into a spreadsheet. This info is already available out there in clean formats with some people and yet I have not been offered this info by anyone.
I am just about the only idiot on this planet who gives information/knowledge to people for free. Not even info i am giving away knowledge. 10x more powerful than pure info.

Ever heard of apprenticeships? That is how the arts are learned, and TA is much more an Art than an exact science.
Seriously if I were to ask people to do this 1 simple task for me. No one would do it. Exactly why should I be helping people with levels or TA ????
I don't feel like refusing people when they ask me to allow them to add then I don't feel like refusing when they ask for levels.

Next person who comes and asks me for a favour is going to get bashed up. Before you ask me for something , you need to know what you can offer.

a) if you want trading levels give me a funda report (i want an executive summary fy08eps/fy09/p.e/p.e.g/any fundamental stories, capacity expansions)/earth shattering news (M&A/takeover/buyback all qualify)
MAIL ME THE INFO FIRST , then ask for the levels
b) If you want a book or information, suggest one book or idea to me that I don't already know and I will offer you 2 books/ideas.
c) Do not bother me during market hours or you get deleted from my list.
Bug me after market or before market not during market.
d) If my levels and systems work, why on gods green earth would i give u any useful info? Simple a) out of the goodness of my heart b) fuel my ego/self confidence c) to build a reputation d) you are the guinea pig :) e) to get something in return, a/b/c/d/e? all of the above..
If you wish to learn from me then you need to come up with a good gameplan.
I have found that 80% of people will stop asking for free help if I ask them to do even a small chore :). The remaining 20% are the ones who will make it because they have the right attitude.
"You only get what you give"
"You only reap what you sow"


Fair??
Good.
Now i need to keep a link to this post in my standard cut and paste responses.

Site counter races ahead of nifty spot!!!

Spotted by my good friend rajnish.

Rational markets??

China is crashing
we are stable?
Is that a sign of maturity??
Or did we take our cue from the u.s which gapped down but closed higher??
I am sure the technicians took their cue from the u.s

If china is a p.e of 50 and its a sell for 50% correction of full swing from bull market lows.
Does that make us a sell?
Shouldn't we wait for p.e of 25-30 before we top out??

If bharti is a sell at a p.e of 50-60 does that also make rcom a sell at a p.e of 30-40????
Are the markets rational?
:)
Questions to which i don't have the answer.
But i do know this
He who can keep himself rational during an irrational market
Stands to make the most.
Litl bought 155 50% retracement
1-2-3-4-5 abc
contrarian pattern
AT SUPPORt
NO CONFIRMATION
its up to 170 now..
Here is the beauty of studying exotic market theories.
You will realize that with certain patterns the sl will not change regardless of whether u get confirmation or not and the confirmation signal might not significantly improve odds of immediate success in all cases ..
The ultimate confirmation is fundamentals. Buy in delivery only if you are convinced of fundas
litl will now up 190-200-240 above 176.

In the may panic of 2006 rel crashed to book value 3xx rs per share...
Those who kept their cool got in right at the bottom just by placing a bid at the book value.. such a simple technique for buying a large cap :)

Thursday, May 31, 2007

Learning from a guru

everyone has a guru.
Some people follow cnbc
Some people follow others on yahoo.
pick your gurus carefully
i follow elder/gann/larry williams/bill williams/linda raschke/neely/elliot
I have studied the works of all these people in detail.
Even after all this study: The ultimate guru is the market.
People often make the mistake of using trading techniques/systems without testing them thoroughly.
Avoid that mistake,
Test your idea on actual market data before you actually jump into trade it.
Gann suggests that every technique should be tested and made one's own before using it.


People will say stuff like buy low sell high???
But not many people know how to quantify their setups
rsi<30 is low?
rsi>70 is higher??

a couple of examples:
13/21 ema is low
13/21 ema + 2x atr is high.
(provided trend of 2 out of 3 tfs is up)


1-2-3-4-5 is high
1-2-3-4-5 + abc is low...
there
are
lots
and
lots
of setups
the more exotic ones like pattern based setups are difficult to test


p.s 1-2-3-4-5 + a-b-c results in w3/wc /inv hns.


Will post pictures later if I get time

Going to be busy this week
need to buy a new pc.
quad core 6600 with water cooling
+ 4gb ram
+ 4 tb space raid 0+1
+ some good sound card for ddl/dts

maybe a mediocre gfx solution otherwise I will end up playing too many games on it :)).

Market Egos

The market is full off egos
Every time Someone tells you I told u so , against the trend..
Then look to go with the trend.
Bears get proven wrong more often than right in a bull market.

Bull market corrections come in various sizes.
Read gann for details
my short version is
2-3 days
2-3 weeks
2-3 months
this is a bull market on steroids
Gann also allows for much bigger pullbacks but our markets haven't really given the opportunity to study those.... So I don't have much experience with other cycles.

This is also the premise of the tripple screen trading system
You trade with the direction of the higher timeframe trend
on a medium timeframe pullback
with a shortest timeframe breakout
Basically you get the most excited when
in a bull market
Bears come and tell you "I told you so"
(bears making money for 1-2 days = force index dip)
Then when the bears get proven wrong on the shortest timeframe
You have a situation where
its 2 vs 1

long tf+shortest up with mid tf in pullback but not down.

If you want to learn how to trade the tripple screen
a) read alexander elder (www.4shared.com or your local bookstore)
or
b) buy a trading system from me and i'll give u a tutorial with it.

Nifty thoughts

Raja: nifty is doing massive 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 post the action near 3990. (meaning 1-2's within a local 5th)

a 5th wave extension in nifty's move could take us to not just 4400 but much higher
4672-4900 is valid.
Downside is what? 4140/3990?
Nifty usually spends 2-3 months correcting every year and 8-9 months rallying
So right now max downside is?? 3990 ?

those who are praying for a correction need to study the charts
please tell me what was 4240-3600?
what was 4215-3990?
we have spent adequate time correcting!!!!!!
It is time to MOVE
if we don't move now then bulls will all go to sleep
check out syndi/albk/pateleng for abc/flat corrective setups if u would rather buy low/sell high rather than chase nifty's move

Nifty 50: 50:50

All 50:50 no trade setups nothing.
w5= pure speculation meaning we are going beyond fair value of p.e.g = 1 on nifty now.
This is not a place to buy nifty on fundamental grounds for 1-2 years.
As for indiv stocks there is value to be found if one looks around.

No more calls on nifty because there is no gr8 trade setup.
Keep an eye on hll/pateleng
hll bouncing from support maybe a flat correction support 198-200 sl 192
patel eng also has good support near 400-396, sl 384
syndibank near 77-76-74, sl 72
might get 10-20% in june

multiple support levels don't know which one exactly will hold.
can use close above previous day's high to trigger long

Trading systems.

A couple of people who had already bought my system got annoyed.
Get back to me i will give you the patched afl.

It seems that i have already written a more generic version of kamal's code.
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2007/05/new-system-is-born.html
this is the old system.. only two letters need to be modified in the old afl that I have given out to get nearly identical performance.
As gann would say there is nothing new under the sun.
Even the old system i had was using a filter for short side trades.

Anyway kamal will be handling the training part from now on for the double screen.

A new system is born

My star protege, Kamal Mahal; has come up with a minor twist in a system that now beats both 7/105 and tripple screen.
The twist is simple
Be quick to turn bullish and slow to turn bearish. This twist has been talked about by gann and the other masters and yet somehow a lot of systems are built as if the market is symmetrical on the upside/downside.

Kamal actually started with a unique way of measuring accumulation/distribution. Somehow he ended up building what I can best define as a double screen system.
Its effectively a subset of elder's tripple screen system with the extra twist of being quick to turn bullish. (that bias probably works well on nifty right now because nifty is in a sustained fundamental+technical uptrend)
I had been reluctant to market my tripple screen initially because its just a lot of work. The tripple screen leaves a lot to the user's discretion like the final entry trigger. This new system which we're calling a double screen system is almost as good, purely mechanical and easy to use.

So we'll have it ready within a few days.

This is probably one of the top systems for trading nifty that is out there and it will be available for sale:
5000 rs per copy. That will include a mini tutorial on how to set it up/trade so that beginners are not lost.

I'll post a link to Kamal's website as soon as he sends me the link

Lots and lots and lots of people bearish

Just about everyone i know except me. is mega bearish
Of course my justification for bullishness is
a) dream
b) fibonacci
on fundas we are 'fairly valued'
means up 10% is just as likely as down 10%
up 4200+420 or 4200-420

But here is the thing
w3 is built on fundas!!
W5s are not about fundas
they are about speculation!!!!!

w5 is about p.e.g of 1.6 :)
lets say nifty p.e target of 26-32 if we really want to set ourselves up for a crash.
After that you can crash , 50% retracement OF FULL MOVE FROM LOW TO HIGH
Target p.e of 15-16 once again

IS nifty Topped??? Or is the 5th extending???


just hold 4140, the old low and also the trendline (check carefully in attatched picture)

and I can see the possibility of a 5th wave extension
We need rupee strength and tech strength to get us there.
Tcs has to make a move for 1380-1440 by the end of this month, the triangle needs resolution
on the downside max damage is 1050 and i would not become a seller in tcs even if it crashes....
buy and hold.........
10 years
tcs
Various growth rate projections
all of which i find reasonable....
average case lets say 20% cagr for 10 years...
With some years where u get 30% and some where u get as low as 5-10%
1.15^10= 4.04 =>
1.2^10 = 7.43 =>
1.25^10= 9.31 =>
1.30^10= 13.78 =>
The stock could be up anywhere from 300% to 1300% in 10 years :)
I am thinking maybe 10 times...
Exactly how much will it grow?? Go talk to tcs management!!


one year tentative target is 1550-1600 for tcs based on a 30% growth in earnings.

Nifty's extension could be similar to the way divis moved
When nifty starts moving it will get wild.
The big big breakout is above 4240.. that is the old monthly top.
I posted the targets for that breakout a long long time ago
Will post them again tomorrow.


S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:5/31/2007
Close/cmp:4294.05
Swing : Up=Buy ( 5.000% sensitivity)
T1:4399.92 T2:4649.84
T3:5057.61 1xR:4437.35
ImpulseTargetZone:5307.53-5715.3
SwingHigh:4,214.8 CMP:4,294.0
SwingLow:3,618.6 SLPivot:3,992.1
2xAtr14Stop:128.801
Narrowsl:3,992.15
WideSl:3,854.14
TrailingSL:4,130.02
Lower Chan:4209.02 Upper Chan:4604.87
ResLine:4569.23

Old dream: hero honda

Hero hits 720
AFter staying in a triangle for an extended duration...
On the dot
720
spot
Floor pivots for session after5/16/2007
Pivot:683.617
Lo: 670.0 Hi: 703
S1: 664.2 R1: 697.233
S2: 650.6 R2: 716.617
Projected Hi:706.05 Projected Low:656.9
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: HEROHONDA
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:683.30 S2:687.77
R1:723.42 R2:748.18
Target1:695.685 Target2:708.067
Target3:722.925
SL1:673.397 SL2:658.539

Hero did not give a single close under the sl.....

Another call hits T3

Keep in mind sl is closing basis !!
"Also intraday today i gave a buy call @ 4265 with some reservation due to expiry volatility
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:4,264.92 S2:4,270.82
R1:4,300.09 R2:4,321.80
Target1:4275.77 Target2:4286.63
Target3:4299.65
SL1:4256.23 SL2:4243.2
Now you will say why on earth am i posting a call which is just about to get stopped out and has very little chance of success?"

Looks like my system is smarter than me :-?
SL2 was not hit on closing basis on even the hourly charts!!
Remember the stoplosses are all closing basis in this trend following system...
sl1 is a narrow st

My wide sl was given as 4240
reason? 4250 or so was narrow sl old low. My override was based on a flat correction knocking out lows temporarily.
In spot 4240 was never taken by bears!!!

So we just hit another t3
Amusing isn't it? :)
Shorts ka baj gaya band yet again!!!
U know why??
Because as i said last time 7/105 is not a profitable system on short side on 10 minute while 7/105 on hourly is.
The profitable trading systems (on the short side) just never turned short!



Here is a fresh call that was given in conf yesterday during panic selloff
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: HINDLEVER
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:198.45 S2:198.60
R1:207.87 R2:213.68
Target1:201.359 Target2:204.264
Target3:207.749
SL1:196.13 SL2:192.644
Remember all call levels will stay valid for 2-3 days atleast.

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Mechanical sl levels for eod uptrend

Gann swing support= 4140 area recent low
Target below 4240 seems to be 4200-4180 region

7/105 on 10 minute turned short a while ago (As i already explained this is a very very short term trading system which needs manual intervention to be profitable if traded on the short side of nifty futures. If traded on spot then this system is one of the most profitable systems i have except for my tripple screen setup.)


7/105 on hourly will turn short under 4180 area.
If both systems go short then it will definitely be time to look at the short side of the market
right now i would suggest shorts look to cover near 4180 and try long again with sl 4150/4140/4111

So basic point is: don't panic right now.
Delivery of good stocks should be held for nifty 4672-4900 levels.
Speculative junk can be unloaded if its beyond p.e.g of 1.6

If this is a flat correction in progress then 4240 could hold. That would give max power to the followup move.
Otherwise a deeper corrective that holds 4140 is also allowed without damaging the trend.
Keep shopping.
When there is a sale at a shopping store. Do you run around in panic and say omg
the value of all the products i already bought went down?
OR do you buy more and try to sell later when the prices get marked up again??

Short term selling pressure

Nifty looking weak overdue for another dip
below 4240 4200 in a near straight line.
4240-4180-4140-4110-4040-3980
take your pick :)
I am not so good at calling tops and bottoms.

Looking to buy some stocks in delivery in any panics
dabur near 84 ideally, 90 max
aftekinfo near 66-72 max
prithvi near 288-300 max
litl near 153-144 , 157 max
infy near 1750
tcs near 1200-1150-1100-1050
rel 500-480
agrodutch 26
krbl 112


If you have any good funda picks then do post them here in comments section
criteria
p.e.g < 1
growth rate > 30-50% cagr next 3-5 years
debt/equity <1.5



Short term 2 reasons for fiis to pull out money
a) chinese confusion? play on sentiment
b) strong rupee they get 9% yoy forex gains+ capital gains

Few days ago i mentioned this chinese issue p.e of 50+ and what not
dunno whats the current state
let me give u a concrete example
Longer term fundas >> technicals
but short term sentiment can always weak havoc
if china is gonna do a 10-16% drop we can do 6-10% easy

for instance rpl ipo listed at a bad time (market top) and stagnated
same with pfc
idea ipo listed during a market bottom!!
:)

idea as per my view was a tad overbought on fundas on listing as well yet it has outperformed...
pfc had an eps of 14-16 or something but no one cared and it didn't touch 140-160 after listing.
It did that now...
And now that everyone wants it, its probably gonna be topping out short term near 166-176.

dlf ipo if u list at a market peak. lots of room for downsides.
Watch to short this one if it lists at a mega premium.
in line with recent mega prem listings
sobha
parsvnath
etc

A rising tide lifts all ships...
Remember that
So if you want to invest during high tide.
Try to invest only on good funda stocks
I can show u overbought and value in this market right now

p.e.g <1 midcap tech like aftekinfo/prithvi
p.e.g >1 in some midcap tech like 3iinfo
or in something like praj which is approaching p.e.g of 2 now
and yet the technicians keep giving buy calls!!!!
They were screaming buy at 512 +++ as well.
then again i have been thinking sell since 440 :))
and divis since something like 3000-3800-4200
the results of divis were blockbuster 17x rs....
so maybe even praj can delivery blockbuster results next year?? I don't know.
Its all a game of probabilities.
Find your stoploss find your target, figure out your odds and take the trade.

Nifty futures, arbitrage from point of view of investors.

Nifty June futures discounted by almost 0.5%
This is how rolling over is done :)
People talk about positive cost of carry and premium and what not. thats not how the professionals roll over. They will bash up nifty slightly so they can conduct their rollover at discounts.

Imagine u have 1 crore rs to invest into a group because u believe in the india story and want to invest for 2 years
u can buy 1 crore of A group shares in nifty weights (very tough to manage)
you will get 1.8% dividend per year
And you will get capital gains
Lets imagine that at the end of 2 years the index is up 20% (conservative case, ideal case would be up 40%)
since you own nifty shares in the right ratio u made 20%+dividend yield 1.8%- the cost of transactions = 21.8% - 2% = 19.8%

Now imagine that you decided to think for yourself.
Lets also imagine that you decided to study what a futures contract is and what cost of carry is.

You would soon realize the following
cost of carry is the premium the futures buyer pays to the cash holder for the privelige of paying low margin
effectively the person buying futures is paying 10-20% margin on one contract.
(varies by contract/sebi mood etc). So effectively the person who is long futures is borrowing money from the market @ coc and the person short futures is lending money @ coc

Lets assume for now
we have 1 crore
we put 80 lakhs in the bank , fixed deposit and earn 9% interest per year
remaining 20 lakhs we keep to buy 1 crore worth of nifty.

We use the clever strategy of rolling over our positions only when cost of carry is negative.
so At end of the one year
we have paid either 0 charges for rolling over
or maybe even made 3-4% per year during rollover process
for instance right now if i am long nifty may @ 4238 i can buy nifty june for 4228
which means cost of carry, annualized is negative (0.25% ^ 12) = negative 3%
meaning market is paying me 3% per year to take the risk of holding nifty futures rather than holding nifty spot.

the transaction cost for nifty, lets say we do 4 rollovers
i.e we use far month series for rolling over instead of trying to hold near series
Every time we rollover the cost is negative around lets say 10 pts
those 10 pts can be used to pay off the comissions

So in 2 years
I have held nifty long thru futures. 1crore worth
imagine nifty is up 20% after 2 years
Nifty futures are trading @ par on a certain day or @ premium on a day that a new 52 week high is made
I cover the rolled over nifty futures
my net gain??

i made 18.81% on the 80 lakhs fixed deposit = 15 lakhs
Also on the 1 crore worth of nifty i made 20% = 20 lakhs
Total gain on one crore = 35 lakhs or 35 % in 2 years
Vs the average joe who used an index fund or invested in a group shares and made 19.2%

Now i know this is the perfect scenario.
You might have to break the fixed deposit if nifty crashes by > 10% since u would be recieving a margin call.
so this strategy is best initiated near 200 sma of nifty from where the drawdown is usually not greater than 5-10%
Or initiate the strategy after atleast a 5-10% correction in nifty spot...
(so far in this cycle degree max dip has been roughly 30% and 200 sma has been the mother of all supports)
If you initiate the strategy at 52 week high odds are u will have to break that fixed deposit and pay up more margin as nifty corrects.

Now imagine a person who knows all this and yet doesn't execute this strategy :)
Thats me.
Knowledge = power but only for those who wield it with confidence.

Nifty 4180-4140 area eod supports can get tested if 4250-4240 intraday supports are broken

Nifty has support near 4250, that level everyone sees.
However since everyone sees the level my sl level is 4240
if 4240 fails then trend is still intact, wider sl level 4140.
You would look for reentry lower only near 4180 or so..

Previous 10-12 calls in trend follower series have hit t3 before they hit sl2.
(trading strategy is buy at s2 , target t2/t3, sl2)
(or buy above s1, t2/t3, sl1)
Rcom most recent buy setup @ 480, sl 470 target 520 just did target
u can now move all levels up by 10 pts for rcom for next buy setup

This is the next call in the eod trend follower series
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:4,177.17 S2:4,212.66
R1:4,283.23 R2:4,348.71
Target1:4209.9 Target2:4242.64
Target3:4281.92
SL1:4150.98 SL2:4111.69

Also intraday today i gave a buy call @ 4265 with some reservation due to expiry volatility
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:4,264.92 S2:4,270.82
R1:4,300.09 R2:4,321.80
Target1:4275.77 Target2:4286.63
Target3:4299.65
SL1:4256.23 SL2:4243.2
Now you will say why on earth am i posting a call which is just about to get stopped out and has very little chance of success?

This is just to show, not all calls work out.
Odds over the longer term are only 50:50 or 60:40 at best.
The key to making money is the profitability of the call and not the accuracy in isolation
profit expectancy is roughly = (%profit * probability of profit - % loss * probability of loss.) ^ number_of_trials

Monday, May 28, 2007

Blah blah

Raja: 2 calls given both on way down in recent history
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com

Nifty old call hits T3: followup
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
Buyarea=4179.67
S1:4,179.25 S2:4,200.28
R1:4,286.10 R2:4,352.06
Target1:4212.65 Target2:4245.63
Target3:4285.2
SL1:4153.29 SL2:4113.71


Fresh support from gap up created 4250 area
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
Buyarea=4246.78
S1:4,245.08 S2:4,250.53
R1:4,281.88 R2:4,304.59
Target1:4258.14 Target2:4269.49
Target3:4283.12
SL1:4237.69 SL2:4224.07

Look to reenter if you booked at t3 i.e 4285.
Day high 4295 so far.

want to learn how to catch a falling knife???
'holy grail' by raschke/ 13/26 ema macd trading strategies by alexander elder

want the books? then go to http://www.4shared.com
and search for the authors

heartchakra1: you take classes
heartchakra1: books too tough
Raja: chakra you are the only one
Raja: who wants classes


Raja: i already told you
Raja: u get me 4 other people
Raja: 5 combined
Raja: i will give
heartchakra1: online ?
heartchakra1: on webcam ?
Raja: 5000 rs each , online classes
Raja: yes webcam only
Raja: webcam+whiteboard+conference
heartchakra1: most people are idiots
heartchakra1: they wont give 5 grand - kanjoos
heartchakra1:
Raja: well how about this
Raja: how about an afl file + mini tutorial
Raja: afl = amibroker scanner for the trading setup?
Raja: so u know which stocks are in powerful moves but are pulling back
Raja: thats the key to managing risk, buying the pullbacks
Raja: rather than breakaway moves

heartchakra1: yeah
heartchakra1: pullbacks
heartchakra1: not like i did in glenmak
heartchakra1: bought at breakout
heartchakra1: then had to wait
Raja: yes
Raja: your profit potential
Raja: becomes half
Raja: and risk is double

Giving calls/trading them

The more calls I give.. the easier it is to derive satisfaction from a 'successful call'.
That is in direct conflict with successful trading.
Reason is when giving calls people will judge you both on accuracy and returns.
In fact most people on yahoo etc will not even have a damn clue about the reward/risk/long term profitability of your calls.

You could keep giving calls that generate 0 % returns per year in all
and people might be impressed with your 'accuracy' (i.e you give 8 2% wins and 2 10% losses they might still think of your calls as good unless they happened to trade the two bad calls :))
You could give calls that generate 100% a year when traded perfectly and people might forget you :)

Hence if one is to become a truly good trader.
One must focus not on giving calls but on trading them.
I keep running in circles in this market.
I actually made a resolution to not give calls for a while in jan and made a lot of money. Then I made some big losses in feb/march thanks to breakout trading strategies that I was employing :).
Since then I have switched most systems to pullback mode/early entry.

Whenever I am testing/developing new systems I like to give a few more calls :)
Just a way of getting feedback.
So right now the feedback seems to be that the calls don't move quickly enough.
One person complained about losses, while 5 times as many have managed to make 10-20% gains on capital in the recent volatility.
The stops have been wide from 2-5% so it wasn't easy for most stops to get hit.
I'm going to be packing up here in Germany soon.
So I'll be on and off.
When I come to Delhi then I'll get into trading on a whole other level.
What i really want to do is either
a) start up a trading firm: hire people to trade a pooled account of money
or
b) find a way to trade signals automatically.

The gap up in nifty has almost been filled
friday's high 425x/closing 4248
now just try to trade long using narrow stops

Be careful with the doublish top pattern on nifty

Pattern: DoubleTopunc:1
Retracements :4146.75-4295
0.236:4260.01 0.382:4238.370.5 :4220.88 0.618:4203.38
0.764:4181.74
we really have no biz going under 4238/4220 if we are going to achieve the higher objectives for this fresh move.
if we start slipping could easily result in a retest of the old lows near 4160 etc
that would be a flat correction and then a fresh move up.
Anyway overall I remain bullish.
Just pick a stoploss and stick with it
Keep in mind the bullish structhre of the market is only negated below the most recent swing low of 4141 nifty.
if we close under that. then definite time to trade short.
Until then you can look to short for 3-10 hours on weaker stocks which are making new hourly lows but please avoid shorting nifty itself. As for bulls. Anything that makes a new 52 week high is always interesting when it pulls back.

Nifty is too strong and shouldn't be shorted because the discount/premium fluctuations usually kill the shorts.
Better is to short stocks where u short @ prem and cover at discount or par in a panic.

Nifty old call hits T3: followup

Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
Buyarea=4179.67
S1:4,179.25 S2:4,200.28
R1:4,286.10 R2:4,352.06
Target1:4212.65 Target2:4245.63
Target3:4285.2
SL1:4153.29 SL2:4113.71


Fresh support from gap up created 4250 area
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
Buyarea=4246.78
S1:4,245.08 S2:4,250.53
R1:4,281.88 R2:4,304.59
Target1:4258.14 Target2:4269.49
Target3:4283.12
SL1:4237.69 SL2:4224.07

Look to reenter if you booked at t3 i.e 4285.
Day high 4295 so far.

Bull market tops and computing time cycles

The short bull market cycle is 4-5 years.
The long bull market cycle is 10 years... What kind of bull market are we in?
I favour a decade long bull market but there will surely be some corrections on the way.

Shorter bull cycles last 8-12 months, if we count this bottom at 3/9/2007
add 8 months u get 11/9/2007
additional care needs to be exercised by investors
@
4/30/2003+ 4 years/5 years
and 10/31/2002+ 4/5 years.. I have got a tentative date for an intermediate top near the end of this year in october or november.
All cycle dates count as important points for future tops and bottoms.
So watch these dates carefully

Keep in mind: Bull markets don't top at a p.e of 20 times for the main index.....
Remember cycle inversion principles as well.
Minor tops maybe.
We will test 4900/5600/6000 nifty or as high as sensex 18k-20k by the end of this year.
Stock picks for last corrective?
mcdowell/patni/relcap/rcom???
rcom buy area 480.. now 516?? how much is that? :)
risk of 10 pts?? sl below 470? obviously entry 480 would have been tough maybe 485-490 if u got in late.
Look at those picks now

tcs is a delivery pick and is still hoving around the 1230 area
breakout should occur by the 13th of june.
I guess the market is trying to adopt mostly a wait and watch policy with respect to the large cap techs.

Patni looks like its in a much stronger position due to breakout from tripple top @ 512