Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Short term selling pressure

Nifty looking weak overdue for another dip
below 4240 4200 in a near straight line.
4240-4180-4140-4110-4040-3980
take your pick :)
I am not so good at calling tops and bottoms.

Looking to buy some stocks in delivery in any panics
dabur near 84 ideally, 90 max
aftekinfo near 66-72 max
prithvi near 288-300 max
litl near 153-144 , 157 max
infy near 1750
tcs near 1200-1150-1100-1050
rel 500-480
agrodutch 26
krbl 112


If you have any good funda picks then do post them here in comments section
criteria
p.e.g < 1
growth rate > 30-50% cagr next 3-5 years
debt/equity <1.5



Short term 2 reasons for fiis to pull out money
a) chinese confusion? play on sentiment
b) strong rupee they get 9% yoy forex gains+ capital gains

Few days ago i mentioned this chinese issue p.e of 50+ and what not
dunno whats the current state
let me give u a concrete example
Longer term fundas >> technicals
but short term sentiment can always weak havoc
if china is gonna do a 10-16% drop we can do 6-10% easy

for instance rpl ipo listed at a bad time (market top) and stagnated
same with pfc
idea ipo listed during a market bottom!!
:)

idea as per my view was a tad overbought on fundas on listing as well yet it has outperformed...
pfc had an eps of 14-16 or something but no one cared and it didn't touch 140-160 after listing.
It did that now...
And now that everyone wants it, its probably gonna be topping out short term near 166-176.

dlf ipo if u list at a market peak. lots of room for downsides.
Watch to short this one if it lists at a mega premium.
in line with recent mega prem listings
sobha
parsvnath
etc

A rising tide lifts all ships...
Remember that
So if you want to invest during high tide.
Try to invest only on good funda stocks
I can show u overbought and value in this market right now

p.e.g <1 midcap tech like aftekinfo/prithvi
p.e.g >1 in some midcap tech like 3iinfo
or in something like praj which is approaching p.e.g of 2 now
and yet the technicians keep giving buy calls!!!!
They were screaming buy at 512 +++ as well.
then again i have been thinking sell since 440 :))
and divis since something like 3000-3800-4200
the results of divis were blockbuster 17x rs....
so maybe even praj can delivery blockbuster results next year?? I don't know.
Its all a game of probabilities.
Find your stoploss find your target, figure out your odds and take the trade.

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