Thursday, May 31, 2007

IS nifty Topped??? Or is the 5th extending???


just hold 4140, the old low and also the trendline (check carefully in attatched picture)

and I can see the possibility of a 5th wave extension
We need rupee strength and tech strength to get us there.
Tcs has to make a move for 1380-1440 by the end of this month, the triangle needs resolution
on the downside max damage is 1050 and i would not become a seller in tcs even if it crashes....
buy and hold.........
10 years
tcs
Various growth rate projections
all of which i find reasonable....
average case lets say 20% cagr for 10 years...
With some years where u get 30% and some where u get as low as 5-10%
1.15^10= 4.04 =>
1.2^10 = 7.43 =>
1.25^10= 9.31 =>
1.30^10= 13.78 =>
The stock could be up anywhere from 300% to 1300% in 10 years :)
I am thinking maybe 10 times...
Exactly how much will it grow?? Go talk to tcs management!!


one year tentative target is 1550-1600 for tcs based on a 30% growth in earnings.

Nifty's extension could be similar to the way divis moved
When nifty starts moving it will get wild.
The big big breakout is above 4240.. that is the old monthly top.
I posted the targets for that breakout a long long time ago
Will post them again tomorrow.


S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:5/31/2007
Close/cmp:4294.05
Swing : Up=Buy ( 5.000% sensitivity)
T1:4399.92 T2:4649.84
T3:5057.61 1xR:4437.35
ImpulseTargetZone:5307.53-5715.3
SwingHigh:4,214.8 CMP:4,294.0
SwingLow:3,618.6 SLPivot:3,992.1
2xAtr14Stop:128.801
Narrowsl:3,992.15
WideSl:3,854.14
TrailingSL:4,130.02
Lower Chan:4209.02 Upper Chan:4604.87
ResLine:4569.23

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