Saturday, June 21, 2008

Nifty downside targets if we sustain under 4430



Just targets for bears who were crazy enuff to hold their shorts below 4430.
4380-4240-4230-4189-4111-4063-3956-3900
3900-4000 is probably the next area where one would try counter trend long.
anything higher is significantly more risky.

Bulls might do best to take a break from the markets until we get some stability.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Short nifty on rallies

res 4640-4670 sl 4680
target 4530-4430
missed the early morning short...
The high of course was a fib level 4680.
Mentioned in previous post.

Right now intra 4565 nf support/4583 ish spot
gonna try to bounce from there get a lower hourly high then disaster for bulls.

Last few days the automated short setup didn't trigger. finally triggered today.
STOCK : S&P CNX NIFTY

Sell v4633.46, SL :4682.48, Tgt:4498.96
lets see if this one finally works out.
This is the machine.. not man :)
anyway its only 50% ish accurate.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Chess and markets

http://www.global-derivatives.com/download/files.php?func=download&id=129http://www.cs.vu.nl/~aske/db.html
http://www.chesscorner.com/games/deepblue/deepblu.htm

http://www.chess-analysis.com/chess-software/deep-blue.html

Do you think you could beat deep blue? or for that matter even some simple grandmaster level chess program?
What % of humans can beat a pc at chess?
What % of humans can beat a pc at trading?

Leave a comment.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Timepass predictions

Important warning. I never trade pure predictions.
Entry/sl has to come from intraday structure.
REsistance 4610-4640-4680 will hold
target 4430

support 4400-4430 will hold target 4720-4770
resistance 4770 will holdtarget 4480
market expire within 4400-4800 range most likely right in the middle 4600 ish.

Its just a script. we'll score it on the basis of number of turning points hit after one month.

Res Levels

Short setups for bears
levels 4610-4620 gap fill area
next old high that gave res 4710-4720 area.
Today tried short but the damn bulls didn't give up intraday and held their gap ups.
Tomorrow most likely gap down.

Support remains 4430-4500 area.
we had a good bounce from sub 4430 levels which to me is a good sign.
We might just have done the bottom. vertically anyway.
Now for the horizontal part.
Refer to old post on channel lines.
We have hit one channel line , still have to hit the wider uptrend channels.
Best case for bulls 4430-4470 gets retested and is held.
Worst case 4000 area etc is still a possibility

stocks worth investing in
LT/bhel , capital goods 25-30% cagr, bhel near 25x trailing good value. lt dunno p.e but it has wierder valuations anyway. always read a few funda reports before buying in delivery.

Midcap space i like indiabulls and idfc.
buy in declines.
Both can double in a few years.
30-50% cagr for these two is possible.