tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-337866472024-03-05T21:16:43.668-08:00fnochartsRaja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.comBlogger290125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-125149994841344812009-01-08T14:58:00.000-08:002009-01-08T16:08:33.600-08:00CAT 2008 final score 99.36 pctile<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIM6fGsKOPR21-dfhLqAcdPy0Kujb_AcqPwRIb8I4NlIWWnOqW8uGSQjmyaDy68_GUgphGTgKIkZ3MKLeh2d1Fb2vu8rBxProre6Ar6IeV4MqHhaqwlRpY3HZnwXgxGO9AKtp_ng/s1600-h/cat2008.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 250px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIM6fGsKOPR21-dfhLqAcdPy0Kujb_AcqPwRIb8I4NlIWWnOqW8uGSQjmyaDy68_GUgphGTgKIkZ3MKLeh2d1Fb2vu8rBxProre6Ar6IeV4MqHhaqwlRpY3HZnwXgxGO9AKtp_ng/s400/cat2008.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5289061676162249282" /></a><br />Weak score in quant even though I am not weak in mathematics per se.<br />Final verdict : I need to improve my time management skills.<br /><br />1-2 fewer questions in DI and 1-2 extra questions in quant would have meant IIM A, C and K.<br />I actually spent 40 mins english, 1 hr DI and 50 mins quant.<br />40/50/1hr or 40/55/55 would have done the trick.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-53367854440168789272008-12-11T19:30:00.000-08:002008-12-11T20:13:00.052-08:00Cues negative, world down a tad, iip expected to come in lowerKey question: Can we hold the supports with the weak cues? <br />hourly charts might top out below 2870 ish<br />below that 2830/2800/2770/2700<br />We really need to hold 2830 to keep the breakout/momentum intact on the short term charts.<br /><br />Bears are gonna have a field day today with all the negatives.<br />What I want to see is whether we can rally post the weak IIP<br />if we can then we have a good chance of going higher until then ultra short term looking to short.<br /><br />Also keep an eye on REL to see if it can clear 626 that will be a sign of things to come<br />triangle or abc.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-87015617232960293482008-12-10T20:04:00.000-08:002008-12-10T20:11:58.993-08:00Nifty chart analysis<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj3zUwsUd0bwLehoemI4oFMc1nKJAcqUDM3TgDrU7AZLvRcla0IEEhmx8NenYTMyI5-9lqcIWj7KiMVR142FyWTfzjfNxMe4Hnlcb6SST1nCLF6hzFERHunERADghmsW5D-OvNIg/s1600-h/niftyretracements2008.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 336px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj3zUwsUd0bwLehoemI4oFMc1nKJAcqUDM3TgDrU7AZLvRcla0IEEhmx8NenYTMyI5-9lqcIWj7KiMVR142FyWTfzjfNxMe4Hnlcb6SST1nCLF6hzFERHunERADghmsW5D-OvNIg/s400/niftyretracements2008.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5278379115586162018" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFL9ZA8dyXA3hyphenhyphenI4jm16hVZIp0XPStYxTSKunEw5w4SCujF4HocdLW7OuQ7tUtYdSbbKsJ3C0m4iOjCaAQ77ZzT87-jKtyRQxVa18DiykQAxpia0oRVdbu6WwrpMW1G30eLuv_1g/s1600-h/niftytargets2dec.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 336px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFL9ZA8dyXA3hyphenhyphenI4jm16hVZIp0XPStYxTSKunEw5w4SCujF4HocdLW7OuQ7tUtYdSbbKsJ3C0m4iOjCaAQ77ZzT87-jKtyRQxVa18DiykQAxpia0oRVdbu6WwrpMW1G30eLuv_1g/s400/niftytargets2dec.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5278379110633932130" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCIytPivDAhMaPpa03G9hlIX7FhFyrgE30jc5K6wlqaNWQHs4mE7ZuwakXufbUDu6OUUy7ePBkRRFmkfoG3z-GB2F5sl4lON2NPhKkwS0JJkswTnvoBrYISgjvvfzcyuaANUgD6g/s1600-h/niftytargetsdec.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 336px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCIytPivDAhMaPpa03G9hlIX7FhFyrgE30jc5K6wlqaNWQHs4mE7ZuwakXufbUDu6OUUy7ePBkRRFmkfoG3z-GB2F5sl4lON2NPhKkwS0JJkswTnvoBrYISgjvvfzcyuaANUgD6g/s400/niftytargetsdec.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5278379100331353026" /></a><br />3 charts for nifty dec series.<br />Invhns type of move forming for bulls<br />for bears maybe a triangle and they'll keep trying to short on the way up finding every level/resistance as an excuse.<br /><br />My view? 3260+ likely<br />HSI did it<br />dow almost doing it.<br /><br />And guess which stock is leading the rally in nifty??<br />REL...<br />much closer to old high 626 cmp 606 ish.<br /><br />Power sector remains my favorite sector, fundamental reasons.<br />So for anyone who says technicals precede fundamentals. Think again.<br /><br />Rel was damn 'weak' at 360-400 (relative to nifty)<br />now its 'strong'.<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj6GcTBaVB73WsQrjoddJa7PBIcPIQ8H8fyM-DDcOztVnkQBLN01eobsxyOQwEUhOMKjKEkNDAUkycVgWWzwzJcyIKe_tdg28FIfRQOrbjB9dOpZFQACdpR36alodMMzGkcuaJyA/s1600-h/relinvhnsdec2008.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 336px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj6GcTBaVB73WsQrjoddJa7PBIcPIQ8H8fyM-DDcOztVnkQBLN01eobsxyOQwEUhOMKjKEkNDAUkycVgWWzwzJcyIKe_tdg28FIfRQOrbjB9dOpZFQACdpR36alodMMzGkcuaJyA/s400/relinvhnsdec2008.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5278379777987867778" /></a><br /><br />I need to find some kind of economic calendar for India so I can be prepared ahead of time for the major data releases.<br />If anyone has an idea, leave a link.<br /><br />For the <a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=economic+calendar&rls=com.microsoft:*&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&startIndex=&startPage=1">u.s</a> there are lots of sites with good coverage.<br />Need something similar for India.<br />I wonder why cnbc tv 18/moneycontrol don't have any organized section<br />they added the indiaearnings site which is a good step. They should also add something along the lines of an economic calendar.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-26261906772521332982008-11-29T09:05:00.001-08:002008-11-29T09:06:21.979-08:00REL Inv hnsRel inv hns breakout above 626 but strong above 470<br />play long target 520-540-580-626-666-726<br />sl below 470Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-87259383592459029582008-11-29T08:18:00.000-08:002008-11-29T09:05:00.094-08:00BHELstrong above 1324 sl 1300<br />target 1355-1370-1456-1550<br />Chart later: feeling lazy.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-85378899845529897282008-11-18T10:02:00.000-08:002008-11-19T02:05:34.567-08:00Still stuck on the CAT....Spent more time on cat 2008 analysis<br />I guess scores vary a bit depending on which answer key is used!!<br />TIME: 29/45/66 total 140 required 18/28/42/120<br />Career Forum: 29/45/66 total 140 vs required cutoffs 28/32/46/116<br />IMS: 29/45/66 total 140 vs required cutoffs 32/32/46/120<br />CL: 29/45/56 total 130 vs required 30/26/44/121<br />PT: 29/45/66 total 140 vs 39/29/47/115<br /><br />I think clearing the cutoff means 1 call and every 4 pts above the cutoff could mean one additional call.<br />Usually 24 pts above the cutoff would mean almost all calls.<br />Screwed by quant I suspect... I probably have the basic cutoff for all iim's except A/C<br />Lets see what happens.<br /><br />Anyway, getting back to trading: I will post a good chart soon , I promise :)<br />Just waiting for REL to confirm eod low.<br />I don't wanna analyze 20 stocks and make 50 trades. I just want one big move for december.<br />Its the big inv hns patterns/double bottoms etc that I talked about earlier; REL will give the best setup of all.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-56736981371055667312008-11-18T05:23:00.000-08:002008-11-18T06:22:46.831-08:00CAT 2008 written test is over, but I'm still not quite over it.<pre> QA DI EU OVERALL <br />Your Score 29 45 56 130 <br />Predicted CAT %ile 87.62 97.56 99.4 98.48 <br /></pre><br />I can't quite seem to get over the 98.4 pctilish score in CAT 2008. another 45 seconds/1-2 questions in Quant could have meant IIM A/B/C.<br />Cutoff for iim means around 97.5 pctile barely enough for iim i/k/l<br />a/c take in much higher scores 98.5-99.5pctile <br />(Even harvard takes in 95-98 pctile .... but india. of course.. 99.9999999 is what u need to win out here)<br /><br />iim-b I guess is the exception as it pays more attention to work exp in its selection process.<br />Unfortunately for me. full time trading for 2 solid years counts as 0 years of work ex!!!<br />I wonder who would make a better asset manager 3 years from now:<br />Someone who spent 2 years in a cubicle at tcs/infy and then did an mba finance from iim??<br />Or someone who actually watched almost every tick for atleast 2 years, studied almost every significant theory on trading the markets and watched/traded one full bull/bear swing.<br /><br />I think the avg placement salaries are bothering me along with possibly missing out on the 'iim' brand.<br /><br />IMI avg : 9.89 lakhs, pctile : 94<br />IMT avg placement: 12 lakhs, pctile 95<br />Mdi/SPJain avg placement: 12.5/13.5 lakhs, pctile 96-97 (spjain pays more attention to work ex)<br />IIM I/K/L: 15 lakhs pctile 98-99<br />IIM A/B/C: 17.5 lakhs pctile 99 (iim b pays attention to workex)<br /><br />I gotta take a break of some sort to get my mind off the CAT.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-73570245845140712222008-11-18T01:46:00.000-08:002008-11-18T01:49:50.707-08:00U.S bailout packageKeep an eye on news about the U.S 700 billion dollar relief/bailout package.<br />I have a hunch that some news on this front will will seal the lows for 2008.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-21042475371860841452008-11-16T07:11:00.000-08:002008-11-17T09:10:14.705-08:00Raja vs Cat 2008According to CL:<br />For atleast one IIM call:<br />QA:30<br />LRDI:26<br />EU:44<br />Overall cut-off:120<br /><br /><pre>CAT 08<br />Name : RAJA Booklet No.: 222<br />Total Attempts: 55 Total Correct : 37<br />QA LRDI EU Total<br />29 45 56 130.0</pre><br /><br />Cutoff i.e 97.5 ish percenile 120-125<br />130 is probably around 98-98.5 percentile..<br />99 would have been nicer but oh well<br /><br />Anyway this is all theoretical: final results sometime in Jan: Still going to need some serious luck to get an IIM (A/B/C) Call. Most likely will get calls from some one/2 of iim i/k/l and mdi/spjain/imt/imi.<br /><br /><a href="http://time4education.com/cat2008/catanalysis_home.asp">http://time4education.com/cat2008/catanalysis_home.asp</a><br /><a href="http://edutalkindia.blogspot.com/2007/07/mba-cutoff-through-cat-score.html">http://edutalkindia.blogspot.com/2007/07/mba-cutoff-through-cat-score.html</a><br /><br />I love the comment by Time4education:The set on ‘Share prices’ would have stumped anyone who dared to get into it. <br /><br />The set involved analyzing intraday trading strategies of some fictitious characters and figuring out <br />a) who made profits if prices did xyz<br />b) what prices did based on which fictitious character's strategy made profits<br />Guess how I did on that set :DRaja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-81764617320638339592008-11-06T20:46:00.000-08:002008-11-09T22:41:21.162-08:00Rcom might move upPure hunch support 220-215.<br />Can touch 260-270<br /><br />UPDATE: target 251.. 260-270 area bonus.<br />res levels on fib 231/237/242/249Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-14955149921271851082008-11-05T09:55:00.000-08:002008-11-05T09:59:14.925-08:00Old short tatapowerShort tatapower again. It hit the final target of 520 ish last time on the way down.<br />Now Tatapower has res at 777-800, sl 800/820/864. Bearish trend on eod ends only on a close above 864, basically its not gonna happen anytime soon. So I suspect its time to sell this rally.<br />short for 724-699-687-656-640-625<br />If 525 old low breaks tatapower could test 480-430 region, but that will probably only happen in a panicky market and no real signs of that yet.<br />U.S Market is already down so tomorrow will be a gap down. I actually gave the short call on tatapower and rel today intraday around 760 but you can play your own levels.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-33264660044276017262008-11-04T21:55:00.000-08:002008-11-04T22:51:15.162-08:00Corrrection soonCan't give the exact top, just look for a top on hourly charts.<br />Target 3000-2950-2900-2850<br />Major res at 3260<br />then at 3565-3640<br />problem with shorting up here is if you short too early you get stopped out<br />and then miss the real move down. so one can wait for hourly charts to confirm a top and then trade the charts with the proper stopsRaja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-60103356998237599672008-11-01T06:00:00.000-07:002008-11-01T09:15:27.546-07:00Market bottom done for now?Look for inv hns and breakout setups on stocks this month.<br />Already gave hdil earlier it moved up early.<br />Its still 140+ but consolidating 148-156. Should touch 176 soon. <br />Next week more short covering in banks and realty since rbi just cut rates.<br /><br />I will start posting bullish setups for nov/dec when I start seeing them. ex this punter lightweight stock coreprotec just blasted 20-40% in one day... Basically whatever breaks has to be bought now. Shorts are in trouble, squeeze the life out of them. Doesn't matter if its a punter who is short or if its a silly FII/hedge fund.<br /><br />Bears will keep predicting 2100; they were right about 3600 and 2600 even 2300 but can we go lower?? Select stocks did touch nifty 2k equivalent lows, hell some stocks even went down to 2004 bull market lows. So yes the market is erratic but just because the indiv stocks went down doesn't mean the index will go down all the way..<br />Thats part of the beauty of diversification :)!<br /><br />My favorite pick for the next bull market=RELinfra and second in line is rcom.<br />Rel moved up from 360-460 not bad right? but wait for 520-600-660 much more left.<br />Sure there will be more dips along the way but every dip is a buy in RELinfra.<br />Ex. Rel if it dips now on eod , lets say it goes to 520-660 and then dips. 99% chance in my view of a higher low, then u have inv hns and then you get explosion up later..... So basically bottom is done. If you wanna fight it be my guest.<br />Rcom will post chart soon when I see the setup. Might have a minor breakout above 227 but tough res near 234-244, then 260-270. Not sure if it will react harshly from 234 and then do the higher low so rcom is riskier. Results were damn good. profit growth vs expected drop. RCOm is trading near a p.e of 16, for a company thats gonna grow at 16-20-40% thats damn cheap.<br /><br />CAT is on the 16th, 2 more weeks of studying then I'll get back to coding some really new and cool stuff :). Right now pretty erratic on the trading side.<br />I'm practicing with the old CATs. My scores have improved slighlty, I think I'm pretty close to the 99pctile mark in both GMAT and CAT now.<br /><br />I took the Cat 2007: Got 128 vs around a required score of 100-120 for 1-6 iim calls<br />2005 cat: Got 64 vs 49 for IIM calls<br />Now I just need to get a 99pctile in the actual 2008 CAT.<br />Gotta work a bit more on my Quant/DI skills. <br />Anyway I think I really should make it into atleast MDI if not IIM. + I would be more comfy at MDI, its right here in Delhi . I'd like to clear the cutoff for IIM mostly for the bragging rights :).Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-75227193994253074392008-10-26T22:41:00.000-07:002008-10-26T22:51:38.705-07:00REL 360 wolfe wave buy, target 500 , picture later, cmp 373Keep in mind wolfe alone is not that powerful.<br />u need a level<br />360 is 3 year rel low.<br /><br />Nifty 2304-2314 is late 2005 low<br />early 2005 low 2000-1950 area nifty<br />we wanna be long now<br />for atleast 3000-3600-3800<br />depending on timeframeRaja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-5232023870860782842008-10-24T07:27:00.000-07:002008-10-24T07:33:18.793-07:00Titan double top target 680-572-543 weak below 930<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHUs4Uh2ao14Lj2bqNgt_N4P7UIfp1872pWyFkbj1eP_-5dyfNLz65KIak5mh1VbGScuST-uObJ-sQrIh68lMSfOr8mttfeyHQWV26pIiRtD5I_80syEbmtAsClodVC4WluL08-A/s1600-h/200810titan.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 331px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHUs4Uh2ao14Lj2bqNgt_N4P7UIfp1872pWyFkbj1eP_-5dyfNLz65KIak5mh1VbGScuST-uObJ-sQrIh68lMSfOr8mttfeyHQWV26pIiRtD5I_80syEbmtAsClodVC4WluL08-A/s400/200810titan.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260728333915792514" /></a><br />Titan weak below 937 and 900 can touch 695-572<br />Results already out, nothing can save it, except a move above 1020Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-83456050720052651232008-10-23T08:52:00.000-07:002008-10-23T08:58:43.771-07:00SBI HNSOld hns big picture 1622-1562 broken supports<br />got retested now smaller picture hns breaks below 1368<br />Refer to old post:<br /><a href="http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2008/06/just-charts-part-ii.html">http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2008/06/just-charts-part-ii.html</a><br /><br /><br />Momentum will increase only below 1295<br />targets 1231-1165-1147-1100<br />panic low of july 1000 area ultimate target<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgOeHv94L0qqIzzQTy03r4oLieBpW33YQRMLP2Ab-dAi68TLFyJHU8tHpZeaccPUUEoTsSbQNzAwRfdydKGo2-5CLNY8RVVKIcw-iMgPMcmCTkH1s05PKouJI7oFtHVNLUZU9-Cw/s1600-h/sbihnsoct2008.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 294px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgOeHv94L0qqIzzQTy03r4oLieBpW33YQRMLP2Ab-dAi68TLFyJHU8tHpZeaccPUUEoTsSbQNzAwRfdydKGo2-5CLNY8RVVKIcw-iMgPMcmCTkH1s05PKouJI7oFtHVNLUZU9-Cw/s400/sbihnsoct2008.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260378397367314962" /></a><br /><br /><br />P.S: Mind you I am bullish nifty 2950/2800/2600<br />These are humongous supports for nifty and we could get a 20-30% rally, I am bearish on sbi/tatapower.<br />Just be careful because a 'rising tide lifts all boats' to some extent anyway :)<br />2 more candidates for late lateef tops=hll/itc will post pics later.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-7533637451759939342008-10-21T02:31:00.001-07:002008-10-23T09:19:07.995-07:00Tatapower futures triangle upper TL res @ 800<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnKV41Dp8r0HMQbTlMMSoi1AcaFQ7StNke98MvoRzskhDg3AMpgRLYBkl6tVUa5suQltd-38YAHV5zRQkfdKsHJmKbi6-DkY6jjyBAS5OGSIhaPuY3pCqfzyTGzncR_XVthyqEmw/s1600-h/tatapowerhnsoct2008.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnKV41Dp8r0HMQbTlMMSoi1AcaFQ7StNke98MvoRzskhDg3AMpgRLYBkl6tVUa5suQltd-38YAHV5zRQkfdKsHJmKbi6-DkY6jjyBAS5OGSIhaPuY3pCqfzyTGzncR_XVthyqEmw/s400/tatapowerhnsoct2008.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260008553234372002" /></a><br />HNS TARGET is around 620-560<br />old consolidations 660,570,508 (if tatapower had been trashed like nifty or rel it would be closer to 500 right now.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_QPtEqUiitEwJAdOgmJusBBdIP40tNyOL-E_tKyT2J6_oi1eq0re5lJNcZ-w9aAK__F1XsZKKT2EPeeVBhKuloRXSiOTi4oucUnWOMHUCOOgu7vGhAz8TrNpmtNQFUFFnPeH4rQ/s1600-h/tatapowertriangleoct2008.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_QPtEqUiitEwJAdOgmJusBBdIP40tNyOL-E_tKyT2J6_oi1eq0re5lJNcZ-w9aAK__F1XsZKKT2EPeeVBhKuloRXSiOTi4oucUnWOMHUCOOgu7vGhAz8TrNpmtNQFUFFnPeH4rQ/s400/tatapowertriangleoct2008.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259537782053195938" /></a><br />watch the res near 790-800 from the upper end of the triangle<br />Follow the technical levels<br />triangular action res: 800<br />my targets 670-600-550<br /><br />tatapower p.e 20 ish<br />REL p.e 12 ish<br />tatapower bv: 426 ish<br />rel bv: 477<br />rel cmp 505<br />tatapower 790<br /><br />i think the two will converge. only caveat: remember the saying the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.<br /><br />Last excuse to short: bearish wolfe wave , though not a perfect one<br />Wolfe would predict a very sharp decline to 480 ish<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-nWGckS9NxyFFXwhZ_GMe8i326g08X6y5mjcT16cRr78oT_W1qeFirYaKaxH9UGYjz_dlRtvusIP_aaYzRA7jqKnIjKh7KfnucYRu27quKFPSxVE3oCx6yg4LVYBiX6fCk3C3VA/s1600-h/tatapowerwolfeoct2008.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-nWGckS9NxyFFXwhZ_GMe8i326g08X6y5mjcT16cRr78oT_W1qeFirYaKaxH9UGYjz_dlRtvusIP_aaYzRA7jqKnIjKh7KfnucYRu27quKFPSxVE3oCx6yg4LVYBiX6fCk3C3VA/s400/tatapowerwolfeoct2008.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260013396354337826" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br />Update:<br />Triangle developing as expected abcde all done now for breakout below 695-670 area<br />that will open up the targets of 567-565 and 527 (which is this triangle's technical target)<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNXwY0_SjAF9w3Y8RtVw_Uv-y24lCE4XgQAJN_SJSN8aHV8xw05VMALFAZp2-6N7baIF692hLNDexk0OsmVO-BfPeV7O6BRdp18HbDBRaxe1jlLgLtLU_KhkU1PxZc5XrtiJGTUA/s1600-h/tatapowertriangleupdateoct2008.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 294px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNXwY0_SjAF9w3Y8RtVw_Uv-y24lCE4XgQAJN_SJSN8aHV8xw05VMALFAZp2-6N7baIF692hLNDexk0OsmVO-BfPeV7O6BRdp18HbDBRaxe1jlLgLtLU_KhkU1PxZc5XrtiJGTUA/s400/tatapowertriangleupdateoct2008.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260384579791369058" /></a>Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-4570276138378953842008-10-21T02:09:00.000-07:002008-10-21T02:13:36.879-07:00HDIL no idea about fundas but its breaking up.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbhis4lGOLBMC0kdB2H-P8GQRfK4QWG6VEH39S7stpvbVMjK5jYj7W9rNDserY8w_Kul2ZSJRpTTo9q36qfF9GbUBqXx3B_Vn9tSyzMaAZOECyGNPQEdj4BTokEk3frQF0LSEqYw/s1600-h/hdiloct2008.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbhis4lGOLBMC0kdB2H-P8GQRfK4QWG6VEH39S7stpvbVMjK5jYj7W9rNDserY8w_Kul2ZSJRpTTo9q36qfF9GbUBqXx3B_Vn9tSyzMaAZOECyGNPQEdj4BTokEk3frQF0LSEqYw/s400/hdiloct2008.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259532621600437330" /></a><br />technical breakout above 140/148<br />follow the action around 140-148 and try to play long.<br /><br />looking for 175<br />HDIL, :17/10/08<br />Close: 125.65<br />T1: 136.158 T2: 157.707<br />T3: 192.865 1xR: 178.5<br />Tech Target: 190<br />Narrowsl: 101.00<br />WideSl: 76.97<br /> SwingHigh: 139.8 CMP: 125.7<br />SwingLow: 89.5 SLPivot: 101.0<br />ImpulseTargetZone : 214.4-249.6<br />Lower Chan: 104.099 Upper Chan: 154.394<br />SupportLine: 104.099 ResLine: 126.799Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-79700368948457898852008-10-21T02:08:00.001-07:002008-10-21T02:09:17.738-07:00Hindalco4x earnings<br />birla group<br />book value 140<br />buy at 60-70 target 140 in 2-3 years<br />and maybe 200-210 in 5 if we get a boom in metals that early.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-896626533382848062008-10-21T02:04:00.000-07:002008-10-21T02:07:20.538-07:00REL:Another large cap at book value: 477Book value 477<br />Few years ago this stock formed a major bottom (All time low 360)<br />also happened to be near its book value at that time.<br /><br />Granted fundas don't always work but they're much more likely to work with large caps than with mid/small caps.<br /><br />rel eps=42 <br />rock bottom valuations 420<br />as far as i know rel is flush with cash.<br /><br />UMPP will require more cash but they've already done the rpower ipo for that so i'm guessing there is atleast a decent amount of cash with ambanis to execute a few power projects.<br /><br />REL should head to 1000-2000 within 3-5 yearsRaja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-87103331942046986432008-10-13T09:09:00.001-07:002008-10-13T10:30:24.395-07:00Nifty big Big levels, this is where you build up your portfolio for the next 5 years.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5kDTqwxMLMsdGPvqpYedVd-NP_K0jhvQLdRuJ9pamS4ByBlmGsItSEa5yKKzb6SoRJjrCIv4Uz2vF5Hi5fP6XZH03g3xbiQLIY2gWbNbOtY7i-tk0nupy3Mv0biEw7gv_Qfe8KA/s1600-h/niftyBigChannel.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5kDTqwxMLMsdGPvqpYedVd-NP_K0jhvQLdRuJ9pamS4ByBlmGsItSEa5yKKzb6SoRJjrCIv4Uz2vF5Hi5fP6XZH03g3xbiQLIY2gWbNbOtY7i-tk0nupy3Mv0biEw7gv_Qfe8KA/s400/niftyBigChannel.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5256684796973235106" /></a><br />Expect broken support 3800 area to be retested if 3200-3000 holds.<br />Probably gonna tank once from there, so look for a short setup near 3800. If u.s goes through with the bailout then we might just rally through 3800 but otherwise I suspect it will give good res.<br /><br />As for the longer term bull perspective<br />You can place your 1-2-3-4 wherever you like.<br />Just check the elliot osc, read up on bill will/aget etc. the basic idea is if elliot osc is pulling back to 0 line, then assume w4. If you have divergence and a lower high in elliot osc + a drop then w5 is over.<br /><br />Simple stuff:<br />1-2, 3 big wave, <br />4th consolidation.....<br />but the 4th must end above wave 1 top...<br />Thats the key. w1 top = 2000/2004 highs near 2000-2100 nifty.<br /><br />Fundamentally p.e of 10 for the stock market is pretty much the ground floor for large caps. (trailing 10x = 2250, forward 10x =2600 ish)<br />I already went all in on friday so I do have a bullish bias.<br />Some fresh FDs will mature in july or so , so until then I got nothing to do in the market.<br /><br />Still studying for the CAT.<br />Still don't have that perfect 6pack..<br />I think I'll bulk up a bit more then cut back to get a lean muscular look. <br />Right now 1 rep max on the bench is 200 pounds, Goal is to take that up to 300.<br />http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12859029<br />My BMI is around 22, optimal bmi for my age group is 21.6. So I don't wanna drop too much weight, just wanna drop a bit of fat and replace it with muscle.<br />Might take a year or 2 to get in perfect shape.<br /><br />Even my portfolio is a little chubby right now. I have way too much rcom. avg price 400 need to book half in a rally and diversify. The gap down 480 area is mega res and should hold in most rallies.<br /><br />It might also take the market a year or 2 to get up to any real levels where people like me can earn a profit (I've made 2 major investments this year 4600 and 3200.., now I can't really buy any more and I sure as hell am not selling at a loss considering I am only 27. I can wait as long as it takes. In the long run I'll still outperform FDS.)<br /><br />Favorite sectors: power, pharma, telecom, metals<br />If I can free up some more cash will buy REL<br />on friday I bought rcom/tisco/ranbaxy.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-36498082927474607052008-10-09T23:17:00.000-07:002008-10-09T23:28:08.824-07:00Mega cap at book value??Tisco book value 300<br />I just bought @ 310.<br />eps around 64-70.<br />few years ago eps was as low as 40-50<br />Anyway <br />http://in.biz.yahoo.com/081009/203/6yfu1.html<br />arcelor expects ok numbers.<br />I don't and the market doesn't..<br />Steel stocks have crashed. More price drops to come but I think that tisco's profitability will go back to pre bull market levels..<br />Last time tisco was at 300 was when I started trading..<br />2004 ish.<br />So I think I'll just hold for 3-5 years and exit at a p.e of 10 around lets say 800-1000 rs.<br /><br />Keep in mind bear markets are sharp violent affairs. especially near the end of local waves. I'm not saying nifty is done tanking but such a violent spike could lead to a profit taking/pullback rally maybe a consolidation between 3000-3600-3800. If we had held 3800 then 5k would have been my jan target but since we broke that. Jan target is around 4400 now.<br /><br />Nifty strong support at 3300-3000-2800-2600<br />2600=ground floor<br />eps of nifty = 225<br />If anyone has estimates for fy2009 nifty/sensex earnings estimates, then please do leave a comment.<br />old estimates for nifty earnings would have been 20% eps growth<br />so 270 eps. or 2700 ground floor<br />but fresh estimates might be lower around 250-260?? I really don't know.<br />But if I had to pick an area then the break all your bank deposits and buy nifty <br />region would be 2300-2700. <br />10 times forward earnings (since current yield on a fixed deposit is around 10%)<br />(I still have some fds... all fds start getting broken if we touch 2800-2600 and 2300)Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-18040749885062915862008-08-25T10:43:00.000-07:002008-08-25T10:53:29.877-07:00Market might touch 3900 in a panicI have this weird hunch that 3900 will be retested.<br />Target for next bull market is 8-10k nifty.<br />almost 9 months done, maybe 3-9 months left in this bear market.<br /><br />Still studying for the CAT so don't have much time to trade or post.<br />scoring around 80/300, 40/75 attempts, 60% accuracy.<br />and this is around 95th percentile...<br />need to get to around 100/300 to get into the 98-99 % area.<br />That should be good enough for iim/fms/mdi.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-45749220403720605702008-07-16T22:34:00.000-07:002008-07-16T23:02:09.201-07:00Very high probability of a bottom at 38243824 very very imp support also rising channel area 3900<br />keep an eye on these levels.<br />My view is bottom has been formed.<br /><br />I've been out for a while, will probably be missing for a bit longer.<br />gotta study for the CAT<br />the interesting thing about the CAT is , just like the stock market u don't have to be 70-100% right to be the best.<br />a raw score of 50% on the cat will probably land you in the top 0.5% in IndiaRaja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33786647.post-84009867566455319992008-06-24T23:37:00.000-07:002008-06-24T23:39:58.181-07:00The longer term rising trend channel<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKnKgNVqU-mN80tf6jlj83ZEeIm-Hx9A9LQg4nEv1aNagWs57ttiUBRbPdYAHoUSCgSF0AAv9D1SrOlafhxYpoOsQDrQ_YTdlfs_be85eC8XS76GWswSzipZ77AI_QSAVpi_dN7Q/s1600-h/200806niftyWaveIvchannel.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKnKgNVqU-mN80tf6jlj83ZEeIm-Hx9A9LQg4nEv1aNagWs57ttiUBRbPdYAHoUSCgSF0AAv9D1SrOlafhxYpoOsQDrQ_YTdlfs_be85eC8XS76GWswSzipZ77AI_QSAVpi_dN7Q/s400/200806niftyWaveIvchannel.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5215705126852559378" /></a><br />Lets hope this is only a Wave IV...<br />Even if it isn't and its a much bigger corrective wave.<br />Then we can hold this channel area and rally; maybe an x wave before more downside.Raja Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07527298677072351066noreply@blogger.com0