If you are a bull on nifty
then the 4000 call for may for 100-120 could be a buy
target 200-240 @ 4200-4240 levels
bonus target zone till 4440 would imply a price of 440 for the call at the high.
The call can be hedged by short 4200 call for 120 as soon as the call moves into profits. If you want an initial hedged position look to sell 4240 call for whatever price u can get when you purchase the 4000 call.
Basic goal on options position is to double it before the end of the month.
If market doesn't move in your favour dramatically by 5/10/2007 then look to close long positions.
5/12/2006 or so anniversary of last year's top. Don't want to be long then.
Fresh breaks in last 5 days which showed up on my scan and i found interesting.
ranbaxy: 361 + sl 352 target 372-384-392-404-408
litl :159+ sl 154 target 165-170-176
hcc:98.8+, 105 + but now under breakout res line near 103-104 for the inv hns.
sl 94 target 109-110-114-116-120
Note: It already did the initial target once and momentum will only come into the counter near 105 but support is near 98-95.
get a funda report and decide if hcc is a longer term bottom on bad news or not.
lichsingfinance:148+ accumulation near 144 sl 140 target 152-160
Try not to chase too far above breakout level. It increases risk and is usually not worth it.
Bears should be interested in what happens if we get under 3900, because that negates the initial breakout+uptrend. Until we get under 3900 cannot reccomend shorting on technical grounds for any gr8er than 2-3 days.
If you want to short; target zone looks like 3975 or so for the drop.
Friday, April 27, 2007
Nifty maybe a w4 of some sort?
So clash of the titans begins : bears 4184 t3 (+my favorite w3 target), 4200 round figure, 4240 old tops
Bulls support 3900 breakout 50% retrace ultimate ground to be held just like 4240 for bears.
Bulls supports 4074/4025/3987/3915
Keep in mind some bullish stocks are either giving late breaks w3/wc or early w5 after consolidation. TRADE THE BREAKS UP if you are a bull!!! The stock chart overrides the nifty chart.
No doubt some stocks are not doing w4 because they are too busy topping out and crashing after wc rallies. Go short and stay short on those. TAKE THE BREAKS DOWN if a stock is topping out!!
Given the fact that we got an extension from 3600-4000+
We now have a dip which can be classified as a w4 on nifty and strong stuff like reliance/bharti. If i had to pick one number its 3975. Came to me in a flash and its also 21 ema+0.382 area. The issue is it came on the way up :) and i already got burned trying to short it. Thats the reason why dreaming is fine but trading the actual market action is important. Anyway keep an eye on the nifty auto system , it went short at the open http://niftytraders.blogspot.com
While some resistance was anticipated near 4184-4240, the actual turn always comes as a minor surprise. The good news killed us, bharti+reliance both had good results but all the news was in the price. If you can't rally on good news then u correct 5-10%. I would still stand by 4440 since we are in a rising trend channel. W4 usually finds support at the lower end of the rising channel which reads maybe 3910 right now. My time target for corrective is maybe 3-4 more days or so. So in 3-4 days the channel could be as high as 3960. If you took may puts by mistake on my eariler call for a may crash. You might want to get out near break even. You would see break even levels in a decline to sub 4000 levels. Patil might have gotten it right this time. he is calling for a may bottom cycle.
Anyway plot your own channel make your own decisions :).
I am buying stuff in dips at my value regions @ my price. bought prithvi p.e of 6
target is p.e of 8-10, 20% gains within few months.
even if it were to remain at p.e of 5 next year stock would be up to around 350 or so , thats worst case scenario. best case is 500 or higher some time next year.
I will give u a lot of levels and reasons why those levels are important. I hope you learn a thing or two by studying which levels are important and why. The job of the bulls is to keep the market between 3900-4200, we need a higher low above 3900 to form the w4 bottom. That can help to take us to 4440. Nifty can decline for another 3 days or so. While nifty is consolidating stock specific breakouts will continue and can be taken.
The targets as always are simple: watch t1/t2/t3 and also watch retracement levels
Typical w4 retracement is roughly 33% which reads 4023, thats also a gap fill target.
favoured target zone =4025-3909
3987-3971 is an important region 0.382 + old low
We have two gap ups to fill i don't know if one will get filled or both.
S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/27/2007 3:53:59 PM
Close/cmp:4076
Swing : Down=Sell ( 3.000% sensitivity)
T1:4025.91 T2:3909.19
T3:3720.35 1xR:3022.45
SwingHigh:3,901.4 Stoploss:4,214.8
SwingLow:3,618.6 CMP:4,076.0
2xAtr14Stop:51.9575
Narrowsl:4,214.75
WideSl:4,584.36
Lower Chan:3856.17 Upper Chan:4242.39
ResLine:3694.61
Retracements :3618.6-4214.75
0.236:4074.06 0.382:3987.02
0.5 :3916.68 0.618:3846.33
0.764:3759.29
Cipla has given a mega gap down. It could pullback 224-240 but it should drop further. Cipla is trading at 23x trailing earnings even after gap down while other pharma trades for 20,30,40x. I guess most of the bad news has been corrected in this nasty decline. Value buyers are waiting at 180 for sure. Anything higher is an ok buy not a screaming buy.
Simple rule for value buying if growth rate = x% for next few years buy at a p.e of x or lower provided all other fundas are fine.
So for instance bharti which grows at 40-50% can be a buy at 40-50 times earnings, no issues. Right now bharti is trading at 40x last quarter's annualized earnings and maybe 50-60x trailing 4 qrtr earnings.
Not a screaming buy but just about fair value.
Tcs/wipro/infy which grow at 30-50% per year are value buys near 30x trailing earnings
tcs trailing eps = 42 , fair value :42*30=1260 mega value = 42*25 =1050:) (Notice how the emas breathe with the fair value, 13 week ema might be 1260, 13 month ema 1150 and 21 month ema 1050)
Siemens was mentioned as a value buy near 1040 , 40x trailing (growth rate 40-50%)
13 month ema 1030
w4=volatile moves
stocks which can retest old highs or go higher after a correction are the leaders
like bharti/reliance but they must do their corrections first.
Also the late laggard breakouts which are only now giving breakouts w3/wc
or the early movers which went sideways earlier and are not trying w5 are your prime candidates for upmoves. The point is since nifty is out of its 3900 trading range the same pattern will be tradeable on stocks , breakouts will work.
i.e hll early sideways corrective still unfolding will break up soon
colgate same story , aurobindo also already in sideways phase and will break up before nifty.
fresh breakouts like litl, indusindbank, lichsingfin crompgreaves managed to give some upmoves. HCC dipped today on weak results. If u are interested in the long term story then trade in delivery. The futures trade should have been booked after it gapped down intraday on first pullback to 103. If you are still holding u should get a 102 exit for sure. If you can keep an sl below 97/95 then hcc still has 109-110-116 open. Not looking very good just now.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
The titans are back
The big punters, operators, the herd of bulls, the titans are back.
These are not players who play for 1-2% they start buying they keep buying.
Basically the insanity etc is back.
Anything that breaks out will be bought.
Switch to breakout trading now.
Look at some of the breakouts today
Anything that is breaking out from a base is giving 5-10% intraday itself
Tatatea old call just hit 772 which is probably beyond every target
620, 648, 670 then above 708 today and it does 708-780 in one day
Even the laggards are starting to perform hero honda broke up today and gave an instant 5-6%
HCC break of 104, 110 already.
rcom did target zone near 480 can still go higher but facing res at gap down.
idbi break of 84 hit 90
hdfc break of 16xx hit 1752
sci break of 176 inv hns did 216!! 52 week high!
Fresh breakouts in srf,litl and a whole bunch of stocks
will post complete list here later
Prithvi bounced up to target zone from support @ 277
If you can hold in delivery then hold for a few years , stock could give 50-80%
These are not players who play for 1-2% they start buying they keep buying.
Basically the insanity etc is back.
Anything that breaks out will be bought.
Switch to breakout trading now.
Look at some of the breakouts today
Anything that is breaking out from a base is giving 5-10% intraday itself
Tatatea old call just hit 772 which is probably beyond every target
620, 648, 670 then above 708 today and it does 708-780 in one day
Even the laggards are starting to perform hero honda broke up today and gave an instant 5-6%
HCC break of 104, 110 already.
rcom did target zone near 480 can still go higher but facing res at gap down.
idbi break of 84 hit 90
hdfc break of 16xx hit 1752
sci break of 176 inv hns did 216!! 52 week high!
Fresh breakouts in srf,litl and a whole bunch of stocks
will post complete list here later
Prithvi bounced up to target zone from support @ 277
If you can hold in delivery then hold for a few years , stock could give 50-80%
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Clash of the titans expected at old highs 4184/4240
Lots of shorting opportunities might be present in stocks that display weakness when nifty touches 4184-4240.
However nifty itself should remain strong.
All timeframe trends up
nifty went into buy and hold long mode above 3900 and the most recent entry triggered near 3986 NF above 4000 spot. This was mentioned in the last post.
Right now big guys will fight it out near 4240. Lots of stocks will get bashed but 4440 is likely on nifty.
See old post for fib targets using the pivot near 3556 as the point for projecting the alternate.
Some stocks will double top and go lower, Some stocks won't even make it to old highs.
Some stocks are so far from their old highs like it looks they will never get there.
See last post prithvi, temporary selling pressure thanks to rupee strength.
If you want to outperform the markets long term the secret is contrarian+value investing. Look to buy weakness in tech for delivery positions.
Short term more upward momentum seems to be in banks/realty/rate sensitives which are now breathing a sigh of relief after rbi didn't hike.
Just go back a few weeks to convince yourself. BOB was trading at book value in this whole crr hike fiasco/interest rate fears.
While most banks trade well above book value!! BoB even has good growth rates of 30%+
So fundamentally it was screaming buy at p.e of < 10x and <1x book value.
Orientalbank another stock was at p.e of 5 almost albk was at p.e of 5.
Technicians were shunning banks then, they will be shunning tech now.
Understand the fundamentals first when you buy delivery and try to play for the long haul. News comes and goes, greed and fear cycle endlessly in the markets. Look at hcc now. breakout mode. Everyone wants a piece of it :). Prithvi will be the same way above 308 But the dip is right now
Prithvi
Retracements :252.5-303
0.236:291.082 0.382:283.709
0.5 :277.75 0.618:271.791
0.764:264.418
Invest near 277-272-264 and forget about it for a while
Worst case old low 252 some fake moves maybe 240
but it will touch 400 if you can hold against all the temporary panic that the re can appreciate infinitely. Just like earlier there was temporary panic that the rbi would just keep hiking rates!!
Remember nifty is the strongest of them all it should make a new high eventually.
2 swings are active
one saying 4184-4190 res from old high + 1x risk level+t3
Other swing is saying
4440 on longer term charts
S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/24/2007
Close/cmp:4141.8
Swing : Up=Buy ( 6.800% sensitivity)
T1:3836.74 T2:3971.58
T3:4189.73 1xR:4184.3
SwingHigh:3,901.4 CMP:4,141.8
SwingLow:3,554.7 SLPivot:3,618.6
2xAtr14Stop:155.116
Narrowsl:3,618.60
WideSl:3,443.23
Lower Chan:3669.86 Upper Chan:3976.16
Also will mention the brute force swing levels above 4240
S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/24/2007
Close/cmp:4141.8
Swing : Up=Buy ( 10.000% sensitivity)
T1:4595.07 T2:5238.14
T3:6278.51 1xR:4929.3
SwingHigh:4,242.0 CMP:4,141.8
SwingLow:2,878.7 SLPivot:3,554.7
2xAtr14Stop:155.116
Narrowsl:3,554.70
WideSl:3,128.57
Lower Chan:3727.6 Upper Chan:4564.37
ResLine:4665.36
Above 4240 nifty opens 4440 if you wanna do elliot wave finesse. Frankly speaking, not a big fan but the only reason i mentioned the 4440 level is because it is a monthly chart trendline.
Brute force pivots suggest 4600-5238 will open on nifty once 4240 is cleared.
Nifty sl for trend is closing below 3900 only
Until then its mega bullish.
However nifty itself should remain strong.
All timeframe trends up
nifty went into buy and hold long mode above 3900 and the most recent entry triggered near 3986 NF above 4000 spot. This was mentioned in the last post.
Right now big guys will fight it out near 4240. Lots of stocks will get bashed but 4440 is likely on nifty.
See old post for fib targets using the pivot near 3556 as the point for projecting the alternate.
Some stocks will double top and go lower, Some stocks won't even make it to old highs.
Some stocks are so far from their old highs like it looks they will never get there.
See last post prithvi, temporary selling pressure thanks to rupee strength.
If you want to outperform the markets long term the secret is contrarian+value investing. Look to buy weakness in tech for delivery positions.
Short term more upward momentum seems to be in banks/realty/rate sensitives which are now breathing a sigh of relief after rbi didn't hike.
Just go back a few weeks to convince yourself. BOB was trading at book value in this whole crr hike fiasco/interest rate fears.
While most banks trade well above book value!! BoB even has good growth rates of 30%+
So fundamentally it was screaming buy at p.e of < 10x and <1x book value.
Orientalbank another stock was at p.e of 5 almost albk was at p.e of 5.
Technicians were shunning banks then, they will be shunning tech now.
Understand the fundamentals first when you buy delivery and try to play for the long haul. News comes and goes, greed and fear cycle endlessly in the markets. Look at hcc now. breakout mode. Everyone wants a piece of it :). Prithvi will be the same way above 308 But the dip is right now
Prithvi
Retracements :252.5-303
0.236:291.082 0.382:283.709
0.5 :277.75 0.618:271.791
0.764:264.418
Invest near 277-272-264 and forget about it for a while
Worst case old low 252 some fake moves maybe 240
but it will touch 400 if you can hold against all the temporary panic that the re can appreciate infinitely. Just like earlier there was temporary panic that the rbi would just keep hiking rates!!
Remember nifty is the strongest of them all it should make a new high eventually.
2 swings are active
one saying 4184-4190 res from old high + 1x risk level+t3
Other swing is saying
4440 on longer term charts
S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/24/2007
Close/cmp:4141.8
Swing : Up=Buy ( 6.800% sensitivity)
T1:3836.74 T2:3971.58
T3:4189.73 1xR:4184.3
SwingHigh:3,901.4 CMP:4,141.8
SwingLow:3,554.7 SLPivot:3,618.6
2xAtr14Stop:155.116
Narrowsl:3,618.60
WideSl:3,443.23
Lower Chan:3669.86 Upper Chan:3976.16
Also will mention the brute force swing levels above 4240
S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/24/2007
Close/cmp:4141.8
Swing : Up=Buy ( 10.000% sensitivity)
T1:4595.07 T2:5238.14
T3:6278.51 1xR:4929.3
SwingHigh:4,242.0 CMP:4,141.8
SwingLow:2,878.7 SLPivot:3,554.7
2xAtr14Stop:155.116
Narrowsl:3,554.70
WideSl:3,128.57
Lower Chan:3727.6 Upper Chan:4564.37
ResLine:4665.36
Above 4240 nifty opens 4440 if you wanna do elliot wave finesse. Frankly speaking, not a big fan but the only reason i mentioned the 4440 level is because it is a monthly chart trendline.
Brute force pivots suggest 4600-5238 will open on nifty once 4240 is cleared.
Nifty sl for trend is closing below 3900 only
Until then its mega bullish.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Thought for the day
Never argue with a mob.
The mob will beat you with its stupidity :).
Check out prithvi fy07 eps 47
fy08e eps=60+
cmp 277
Someone explain how this gels with efficient markets.
When the 'good' results came stock gapped up 298 faced res 308 all purely technical stuff.
hit upper end of channel/falling 13 week ema etc.
Now after being trashed from purely technical res levels down to purely technical support levels bulls would be wondering if the stock is still a buy.
The markets are manic depressive
In order to make abnormal profits one must figure out a way to buy low sell high
Buying high+selling higher is garbage.
If anyone out there has a trading system which can buy a mega breakout and produce risk adjusted returns superior to buy and hold nifty then do enlighten me.
System: (Tripple Screen EMA/FibChannel follower)
Stock Name: PRITHVI
Buyarea=278.62
Support1 :278.93 Support2 :278.34
Resistance1:298.70 Resistance2:311.27
ATR(14)=12.5663
Target1:281.134 Target2:291.187
Target3:298.726
SL1:276.107 SL2:266.054
Trade the long side of the stock intraday if it is mantaining above support1 and support2
Try not to mess with the mob
Enter during quiet times and exit during hectic times.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Building Trading systems
The following 2 pictures are from a trading system used by a friend.
This friend of mine was ultra secretive about his nifty trading system when I initially met him. He was not at all interested in sharing his system. He was not even willing to let me see a picture of the trading signals !!
Anyway he is a gr8 professional trader.
Last 1.5 years or so he made 40 lakhs on an initial capital of 10 lakhs
Trading a fixed position size of 3000 nifty.
See to him: He didn't dare to share his trading system because he thinks its a money spinning machine.
I know I can come up with a million gr8 ideas.
Trading is not about trading systems. One also needs the patience+Discipline to trade the system!!
I am not entirely sure what prompted my pro trader friend to share his system with me, might have been my last post. Still don't know.
It took me around 10 minutes to figure out the entry trigger.
Check the following picture on the left
Once I had all the entry triggers nailed I knew all I needed was a trend filter.
Step 2: Adding the trend filter. Look at the picture on the right side now
Once I added the trend filter. I had all of the good signals + I got rid of quite a few bad ones.
After i had done that
I ran a test of the system using nifty-I data over the period that my esteemed friend had traded.
All trades were taken on closing basis as per the system rules.
Statistics
All trades Long trades Short trades
Initial capital 1000000.00 1000000.00 1000000.00
Ending capital 5792113.67 5669809.63 1122304.03
Net Profit 4792113.67 4669809.63 122304.03
Net Profit % 479.21 % 466.98 % 12.23 %
Exposure % 28.21 % 23.89 % 4.32 %
Net Risk Adjusted Return % 1698.48 % 1954.63 % 282.90 %
Annual Return % 228.53 % 223.82 % 8.13 %
Risk Adjusted Return % 809.99 % 936.83 % 187.98 %
So it seems in theory my replica of his system with the tiny improvement of a better signal filter outperforms his original trading system by a very tiny margin
If my friend were to trade my system with his iron will/discipline he would be making a little more money with less risk.
Amazingly enough even he is debating getting a tutorial from me on how to improve his nifty trading strategies. Then again he probably just said that didn't mean it :)
It is hard to read a person's face/intent online which prompts me to be excessively cynical at times.
So we're talking about a professional trader here who has had a trading system given to him by a member of his family who is also a trader and even he could stand to learn a trick or two from . Anyway trading most likely runs in his family , I am not saying any of you out there can turn 10 lakhs into 40 lakhs in even 4 years.
My point is computers give me the power to acquire the knowledge that often comes to people after only years and years of experience.
Then again I have read maybe a few hundred books on trading and I have watched the markets closely now every day for almost 2 years now.
For instance compare the stats of my hourly/10 minute trend follower with my friends system.
statistics:
Statistics
All trades Long trades Short trades
Initial capital 1000000.00 1000000.00 1000000.00
Ending capital 6087481.30 5994610.30 1092871.00
Net Profit 5087481.30 4994610.30 92871.00
Net Profit % 508.75 % 499.46 % 9.29 %
Exposure % 34.17 % 28.11 % 6.06 %
Net Risk Adjusted Return % 1488.89 % 1776.81 % 153.27 %
Annual Return % 239.79 % 236.27 % 6.20 %
Risk Adjusted Return % 701.75 % 840.51 % 102.29 %
Max. trade drawdown -1176537.50 -685988.16 -1176537.50
Max. trade % drawdown -9.04 % -6.07 % -9.04 %
Max. system drawdown -2013407.76 -1423914.44 -2211353.29
Max. system % drawdown -37.44 % -32.39 % -76.85 %
Also here is another random fact , I spent almost 1 hour trying to replicate the system supplied by my friend down to the last signal!!
No matter what I was doing I would be off by one signal here or there.
I can be quite obsessive compulsive. Focusing on irrelevant details at times :)
The system replica which I had created is actually 'superior' from a raw mathematical standpoint.
Let me conclude with an important analogy.
My friend gave me the following analogy. He said, If I have a gun that works I would not give it to anyone else.
Here is how I think.
A blacksmith can give you a sword and a shield, even show you how to wield it, but in the heat of battle only the courageous triumph. You must know when to hide behind the shield for instance against ranged archers and you must know when its time to rush head on into battle. If you wait to long the opportunity will be gone. End of the day: no guts no glory, no risk, no reward.
For those who want a 'trial version' please reread the last line carefully.
The 5000 rs is your risk.
If anyone wants to learn how to trade the nifty futures, contact me.
Just make sure you are rich enough to waste 5000 rs.
Going by standard risk management rules i.e 2-3% risk, you should be having 1.5-2.5 lakhs if you are going to give me 5000rs.
My tutorial would probably save you 2-3% within 1 week itself in the form of trades which you should have avoided but took because some punter was teaching you how to trade.
(Punter is a term i sometimes use in a derogatory fashion to exemplify a person who buys on a whim, sells on a whim and doesn't understand risk management)
I am going to offer a short tutorial on how to trade the nifty futures profitably
Whether you use 10 minute charts , hourly or eod is up to you
But always keep in mind the big money is made by holding positions for atleast 2-3 days if not 2-3 weeks.
Since a few people asked I will post this general info here:
Cost for nifty futures trading tutorial is 5000 rs. I will only offer this tutorial to people who have atleast 1.5 lakh rs trading capital.
Duration of this tutorial is 1-2 hours.
I will give you 2 trading systems
1) is for eod
2) is for hourly/10 minute.
The following points will be covered.
a) Trading eod charts (based on an improved version of the trading system used by my professional trader friend)
b) Trading hourly charts with stoplosses (my own custom optimized system which takes low risks and gives big rewards)
c) Trading 10 minute charts for intraday trading (same method as hourly system but for shorter term traders)
d) I will also give you the trading system so that you can use it with amibroker
You will need some kind of intraday data feed to make full use of this.
If you are trading with indiabulls I can help you get intraday data from indiabulls into amibroker.
Cost of plugin is an additional 4500 rs but its a one time cost
and it will save you from a lifetime of costs for intraday data.
Most data feeds will cost you 15,000 - 20,000 - 30,000 rs per year.
So a one time investment of 4500 rs for my plugin + 1500 rs or so for an indiabulls account is not a bad deal.
One can even consider switching accounts to indiabulls just for the datafeed.
Getting the data feed is up to you, your choice.
If you have any questions contact me: niftytradersinc@yahoo.com
Also if interested in getting data from indiabulls into amibroker visit my site.
http://niftytraders.dyndns.org:8080/Niftytraders
 |  |
This friend of mine was ultra secretive about his nifty trading system when I initially met him. He was not at all interested in sharing his system. He was not even willing to let me see a picture of the trading signals !!
Anyway he is a gr8 professional trader.
Last 1.5 years or so he made 40 lakhs on an initial capital of 10 lakhs
Trading a fixed position size of 3000 nifty.
See to him: He didn't dare to share his trading system because he thinks its a money spinning machine.
I know I can come up with a million gr8 ideas.
Trading is not about trading systems. One also needs the patience+Discipline to trade the system!!
I am not entirely sure what prompted my pro trader friend to share his system with me, might have been my last post. Still don't know.
It took me around 10 minutes to figure out the entry trigger.
Check the following picture on the left
 |  |
Once I had all the entry triggers nailed I knew all I needed was a trend filter.
Step 2: Adding the trend filter. Look at the picture on the right side now
Once I added the trend filter. I had all of the good signals + I got rid of quite a few bad ones.
After i had done that
I ran a test of the system using nifty-I data over the period that my esteemed friend had traded.
All trades were taken on closing basis as per the system rules.
Statistics
All trades Long trades Short trades
Initial capital 1000000.00 1000000.00 1000000.00
Ending capital 5792113.67 5669809.63 1122304.03
Net Profit 4792113.67 4669809.63 122304.03
Net Profit % 479.21 % 466.98 % 12.23 %
Exposure % 28.21 % 23.89 % 4.32 %
Net Risk Adjusted Return % 1698.48 % 1954.63 % 282.90 %
Annual Return % 228.53 % 223.82 % 8.13 %
Risk Adjusted Return % 809.99 % 936.83 % 187.98 %
So it seems in theory my replica of his system with the tiny improvement of a better signal filter outperforms his original trading system by a very tiny margin
If my friend were to trade my system with his iron will/discipline he would be making a little more money with less risk.
Amazingly enough even he is debating getting a tutorial from me on how to improve his nifty trading strategies. Then again he probably just said that didn't mean it :)
It is hard to read a person's face/intent online which prompts me to be excessively cynical at times.
So we're talking about a professional trader here who has had a trading system given to him by a member of his family who is also a trader and even he could stand to learn a trick or two from . Anyway trading most likely runs in his family , I am not saying any of you out there can turn 10 lakhs into 40 lakhs in even 4 years.
My point is computers give me the power to acquire the knowledge that often comes to people after only years and years of experience.
Then again I have read maybe a few hundred books on trading and I have watched the markets closely now every day for almost 2 years now.
For instance compare the stats of my hourly/10 minute trend follower with my friends system.
statistics:
Statistics
All trades Long trades Short trades
Initial capital 1000000.00 1000000.00 1000000.00
Ending capital 6087481.30 5994610.30 1092871.00
Net Profit 5087481.30 4994610.30 92871.00
Net Profit % 508.75 % 499.46 % 9.29 %
Exposure % 34.17 % 28.11 % 6.06 %
Net Risk Adjusted Return % 1488.89 % 1776.81 % 153.27 %
Annual Return % 239.79 % 236.27 % 6.20 %
Risk Adjusted Return % 701.75 % 840.51 % 102.29 %
Max. trade drawdown -1176537.50 -685988.16 -1176537.50
Max. trade % drawdown -9.04 % -6.07 % -9.04 %
Max. system drawdown -2013407.76 -1423914.44 -2211353.29
Max. system % drawdown -37.44 % -32.39 % -76.85 %
Also here is another random fact , I spent almost 1 hour trying to replicate the system supplied by my friend down to the last signal!!
No matter what I was doing I would be off by one signal here or there.
I can be quite obsessive compulsive. Focusing on irrelevant details at times :)
The system replica which I had created is actually 'superior' from a raw mathematical standpoint.
Let me conclude with an important analogy.
My friend gave me the following analogy. He said, If I have a gun that works I would not give it to anyone else.
Here is how I think.
A blacksmith can give you a sword and a shield, even show you how to wield it, but in the heat of battle only the courageous triumph. You must know when to hide behind the shield for instance against ranged archers and you must know when its time to rush head on into battle. If you wait to long the opportunity will be gone. End of the day: no guts no glory, no risk, no reward.
For those who want a 'trial version' please reread the last line carefully.
The 5000 rs is your risk.
If anyone wants to learn how to trade the nifty futures, contact me.
Just make sure you are rich enough to waste 5000 rs.
Going by standard risk management rules i.e 2-3% risk, you should be having 1.5-2.5 lakhs if you are going to give me 5000rs.
My tutorial would probably save you 2-3% within 1 week itself in the form of trades which you should have avoided but took because some punter was teaching you how to trade.
(Punter is a term i sometimes use in a derogatory fashion to exemplify a person who buys on a whim, sells on a whim and doesn't understand risk management)
I am going to offer a short tutorial on how to trade the nifty futures profitably
Whether you use 10 minute charts , hourly or eod is up to you
But always keep in mind the big money is made by holding positions for atleast 2-3 days if not 2-3 weeks.
Since a few people asked I will post this general info here:
Cost for nifty futures trading tutorial is 5000 rs. I will only offer this tutorial to people who have atleast 1.5 lakh rs trading capital.
Duration of this tutorial is 1-2 hours.
I will give you 2 trading systems
1) is for eod
2) is for hourly/10 minute.
The following points will be covered.
a) Trading eod charts (based on an improved version of the trading system used by my professional trader friend)
b) Trading hourly charts with stoplosses (my own custom optimized system which takes low risks and gives big rewards)
c) Trading 10 minute charts for intraday trading (same method as hourly system but for shorter term traders)
d) I will also give you the trading system so that you can use it with amibroker
You will need some kind of intraday data feed to make full use of this.
If you are trading with indiabulls I can help you get intraday data from indiabulls into amibroker.
Cost of plugin is an additional 4500 rs but its a one time cost
and it will save you from a lifetime of costs for intraday data.
Most data feeds will cost you 15,000 - 20,000 - 30,000 rs per year.
So a one time investment of 4500 rs for my plugin + 1500 rs or so for an indiabulls account is not a bad deal.
One can even consider switching accounts to indiabulls just for the datafeed.
Getting the data feed is up to you, your choice.
If you have any questions contact me: niftytradersinc@yahoo.com
Also if interested in getting data from indiabulls into amibroker visit my site.
http://niftytraders.dyndns.org:8080/Niftytraders
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