Monday, September 11, 2006

Swing Trading: Nifty analysis Old swing low at 3300



Stoploss for positional long traders using the swing trading technique is 3300 nifty on a daily closing basis.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Alok industries w3/inv H&S active above 70 and 66.7 supports 64 trendline stop 59




Alok industries setting up for a possible w3.
Target zone for inv H&S 80 rs.

If wc then alok would stall at 70. w3 likely if 70 is broken.
The breakout should be fast and furious hence safest way to trade this setup is a 70 rs call
T2 for wc is 69.8 upper channel at 69.6. Day high on 9/8/2006 = 69.xx
For w3 T3 is 77 rs which would be the first most reasonable target.
Alok calls can be bought for up to 2-3 rs.

521070:9/8/2006
Close/cmp:67.6
Swing : Up=Buy ( 13.000% sensitivity)
Breakout area: 58.5396
Targets Active above:62.8401
T1:64.9104 T2:69.8
T3:77.7104 T4:82.6
LastPivot57 TrailingStop:4.8896
0.618 sl:58.5396
Lower:59.1775 Upper:69.6325
Risk/Reward T1=-0.253736
Risk/Reward T2=0.207547
Risk/Reward T3=0.953811

Fib retracement levels which may function as support/res
Retracements :99.2-53.65
0.236:64.3998 0.382:71.0501
0.5 :76.425 0.618:81.7999
0.786:89.4523
64 has been crossed and should now function as support.
Next 2 targets in fib retracements are 71 and 76
82 calls can be sold to hedge longs once longs move into profits since that is the 0.618 retracement of the entire drop.


Strategy
a) Buy in a dip to 64/65. Stoploss for the trend is below trendline near 59/old lows 57
Intraday traders would have to improvise on stops hourly lows/daily lows will do.
b) Buy 70 call option (this would be my preferred strategy)