Vision for next week: Stiff resistance 3950-3961-3970

Stiff resistance zone 3950-3961-3970

Target 3815
Buy 3900 put for 30-50 max, ltp was perhaps 60
Target 85-160
SL is price paid for put. If you can't risk the entire price paid for the put you are taking too big a position, downsize.

While i never mentioned an exit from the 3800 put earlier
I did mention to hedge at 3700-3570
You won't be making a loss on that position now thats for sure
Because when market approached 3700-3600 the 3600 puts would have been selling for the same amount that you paid for your 3800 put!!
If you got out with 2x profits gr8. If not well thats life.


3700 call reccomended at 100, target 200 hit. Half should be booked.
Remainder can be held for 3960 spot or 250-260 price of the call. Any position which is being held should be hedged by shorting 3900 call.

Greed and fear
Endless cycle of the markets

Check out the magic levels in the following image
Leave a comment if you think any of the levels is remotely working
Magic levels

What kind of trader are you?

There are two kinds of traders
a) those who hunt rabbits
b) those who hunt elephants
The elephant hunter returns mostly empty handed and his children often go hungry.
The rabbit hunter, feeds his family three square meals regularly.
Occasionally, when the elephant hunter makes a kill, it is a feast for the entire village.
But in the long run , its the rabbit hunter who stands a better chance of success.
- From Alexander Elder's new book Entries and exits -

Watch infy results for next move

I still stand by 3900-3960 assessment
sl narrow = 3815 (updated)
sl wide for trend=3760
All levels mentioned here are nifty spot

Mini short trade from 385x sl 3875
did t3 till 3815

if market is strong we will not go under 3800
if market is weak max dip allowed 3766

Market will take its cue from infy results
if infy guidance is good 25-30% type of guidance
Then you can see a rally in IT
I would go with tcs/infy/wipro/satyam in that order
tcs+infy are very close to breakout levels
keep an eye on them tomorrow.
Midcap IT can also flare up if market likes infy results/guidance

Keep in mind slightly longer term view
bearish at 396x
if 0 discount is seen near resistance, would be ideal shorting opportunity.

break of 3900 can result in 30 pts discount reduction in nf
so risk/reward was appropriate for bulls near 3815 spot today
nf was at 3785

Lots of pharma stocks giving pullback trades to 13/21 ema
look to buy
order of str
divis/orchid/wockhard/dr.red/auro/star/ranbaxy/cipla

Tata tea fresh break possible above 648+bonus announcement

Pullback trade given after resline breakout above 608
at 618-622
initial levels were
System: (Tripple Screen EMA/FibChannel follower)
Stock Name: TATATEA
Support1:613.344
Support2:617.556
Resistance1:648.698
Resistance2:670.521
Buyarea=613.957
ATR(14)=21.8235
Target1:635.78
Target2:657.604
Target3:679.427
SL:578.603

Now breakout begins above 648
News of a bonus announcement
Market might run with it and attempt 672-700-713-728 soon

TATATEA, Analysis Date:4/11/2007 3:53:59 PM
Close/cmp:634
Swing : Up=Buy ( 9.500% sensitivity)
T1:637.449 T2:672.126
T3:728.225 1xR:713.65
SwingHigh:647.5 CMP:634.0
SwingLow:560.0 SLPivot:581.3
2xAtr14Stop:11.2128
Narrowsl:66.15
WideSl:107.16
Lower Chan:588.807 Upper Chan:666.673
ResLine:605.602

Also tatatea might be doing a corrective retracement to its entire fall
Retracements :873.35-568.7
0.236:640.597 0.382:685.076
0.5 :721.025 0.618:756.974
0.786:808.155

Pullback trades

a) Star
gentle uptrend
13/21 week ema flat
13/21 daily ema rising
macd above 0 macd histogram pulling back
+ stock pulling back to rising trend channel
stoploss below panic lows 320

EMA(13)=342.466
TrendEMA(21)=339.844
EMAHT(13)=340.761
TrendEMAHT(21)=338.325
HT ema 13=340.761
HT ema 13 trend=1


SFstoplong332.5
SFstopshort376


System: (Tripple Screen EMA/FibChannel follower)
Stock Name: STAR
Support1:342.466
Support2:339.508
Resistance1:368.149
Resistance2:384.003
Buyarea=342.808
ATR(14)=15.8539
Target1:358.662
Target2:374.516
Target3:390.37
SL:317.125

sl=on closing basis 339
on intraday basis 317
targets 358/374/390

Nifty sideways correction unfolding

Weak move doesn't like it will do much damage
t1/t2/t3 standard fib
3853/3838/3815

S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/11/2007 12:53:59 PM
Close/cmp:3849.8
Swing : Down=Sell ( 0.000% sensitivity)
T1:3853.01 T2:3838.76
T3:3815.72 1xR:3763.25
SwingHigh:3,856.8 Stoploss:3,876.1
SwingLow:3,819.6 CMP:3,849.8
2xAtr14Stop:41.7504
Narrowsl:-56.40
WideSl:-91.37
Lower Chan:3833.28 Upper Chan:3878.82
ResLine:3859.24

Market overdue for a reaction

5 days up
No new highs.
Last time
3570-3900 = 5 days to top @ 3900

The swing targets on eod are
S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/10/2007
Close/cmp:3848.15
Swing : Up=Buy ( 5.000% sensitivity)
T1:3823.28 T2:3949.8
T3:4154.49 1xR:4184.3
SwingHigh:3,901.4 CMP:3,848.1
SwingLow:3,574.3 SLPivot:3,618.6
2xAtr14Stop:172.096
Narrowsl:282.85
WideSl:458.22
Lower Chan:3640.96 Upper Chan:3950.33
ResLine:4011.15

The intraday swing reads

S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/10/2007 3:53:59 PM
Close/cmp:3848.15
Swing : Up=Buy ( 1.000% sensitivity)
T1:3794.09 T2:3845.95
T3:3929.85 1xR:3791.8
SwingHigh:3,751.0 CMP:3,848.1
SwingLow:3,618.6 SLPivot:3,710.2
2xAtr14Stop:41.9556
Narrowsl:40.80
WideSl:66.10
Lower Chan:3833.49 Upper Chan:3921.38
ResLine:3612.86

Market needs to work off overbought condition on hourly charts near 3845-3857
Either by going sideways or down. Weak sideawys reaction target = 3821.
Retracement levels for reaction:
Retracements :3710.2-3856.75
0.236:3822.16 0.382:3800.77
0.5 :3783.48 0.618:3766.18
0.786:3741.56

So far 0.236 holding tiny sideways reaction till rising trendline. i.e trendline not even broken yet!!
A reaction till rising gap area 3760 would not damage the trend.
So my view is be a buyer at 3783-3766 if seen sl 3741.

Anything deeper below 3760 rising gap/0.618 would create fresh problems.

Black monday??

Every now and then people ask questions like black monday?
My favorite response : First you take me to the logical resistance level then we can have black , blue , orange, red monday :).
My logical res level reads 396x
(world will do 100% retracement/new highs we are weaker we will to 61.8-70% like in 2004)

After today's bashing the only one who is going to be black and blue are the bears

Starting tomorrow one should look to trade the short side of weak stocks
i.e longer term downward pressure but shorter term bounce backs
Try to go short on evidence of weakness on hourly charts.

Vision for this week: 3900-3971 region

We have done a complete gap fill in nifty spot
3760-3820 region
now i am sure lots of people are being bullish right now.
And I cannot disagree yet.
Weakness can come in only under the two rising gaps that we have.
If we go under that only then try shorting.
For now view is rising trend will continue on eod, only higher high/higher low expected
Target is 3900-3965 region

Vision: icarus flies into the sun, loses his wings and crashes
Translation to nifty, bulls will breakout (flying) , golden ratio 396x (sun) = resistance can potentially reverse.

The subconscious mind will often reflect what the conscious mind is thinking.
So in my case I already published this view of 3900-3971 and then a crash.
Just getting the same thing in my dreams.
Ever tried lucid dreaming? google for it.

Trying to climb a Slippery slope

Market is going to continue trying its upward journey
If world markets remain firm
Dow should retest old high
We could retest 0.618
3900+ next region to short.
3700 ish support.
Nf stops will probably get hit both ways but I suspect bulls will make more in the next week
Reccomended 3700 call for 100 target 200-250
With a hedge of short 3900 call for 30-70
depending on risk/reward appetite.


Vision=Slippery slope but sunny days ahead
5 lap race starting, weak stocks will fail after 3 legs up. stronger ones might even make new highs.
Weak=cement+auto, strong = pharma+IT