Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Nifty 4180-4140 area eod supports can get tested if 4250-4240 intraday supports are broken

Nifty has support near 4250, that level everyone sees.
However since everyone sees the level my sl level is 4240
if 4240 fails then trend is still intact, wider sl level 4140.
You would look for reentry lower only near 4180 or so..

Previous 10-12 calls in trend follower series have hit t3 before they hit sl2.
(trading strategy is buy at s2 , target t2/t3, sl2)
(or buy above s1, t2/t3, sl1)
Rcom most recent buy setup @ 480, sl 470 target 520 just did target
u can now move all levels up by 10 pts for rcom for next buy setup

This is the next call in the eod trend follower series
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:4,177.17 S2:4,212.66
R1:4,283.23 R2:4,348.71
Target1:4209.9 Target2:4242.64
Target3:4281.92
SL1:4150.98 SL2:4111.69

Also intraday today i gave a buy call @ 4265 with some reservation due to expiry volatility
System: Trend follower
Stock Name: S&P CNX NIFTY
BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2
S1:4,264.92 S2:4,270.82
R1:4,300.09 R2:4,321.80
Target1:4275.77 Target2:4286.63
Target3:4299.65
SL1:4256.23 SL2:4243.2
Now you will say why on earth am i posting a call which is just about to get stopped out and has very little chance of success?

This is just to show, not all calls work out.
Odds over the longer term are only 50:50 or 60:40 at best.
The key to making money is the profitability of the call and not the accuracy in isolation
profit expectancy is roughly = (%profit * probability of profit - % loss * probability of loss.) ^ number_of_trials

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