Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Are the bulls panicking yet? Don't: breakout of 4240 intact.

Nifty gap up 4249-4236 nf rates first support
then next gap up 4198-4212 then 4093-4100 nf.
Lots and lots of gap ups
The initial breakout area remains key 4150-4180 for upward momentum.

My view remains 4400 possible above 3900 but seriously
@ 4240?? risk?
Reward?
Trade??
Is there a trade??
Here is my advice for people who are long 400 call for 100-120
old reco.
Book for 240-280
And switch to 4350 call
More speculative, less risk but decent reward/risk if you play the levels right.
if we do 4400-4440, then the call would tripple/quadruple otherwise call goes to 0
Last price i saw was 10-20 rs.

Today i was accused of causing a panic
By saying bulls stuck in sbi futures @ 1328 .........
sl 1333 target 1308. Didn't quite work out because i went to sleep after taking the trade. Otherwise should have covered at 1308. I hope i get an exit tomorrow.
1296-1280-1260 ideally below 1308 but sbi is a bit strong.
Sbi bulls should only look to buy around 1252-1218 in my view. But we'll see tomorrow.


Just remember one thing. My breakout calls are horrible. They don't work.
I am not a breakout trader. I haven't been able to prove to myself that breakout trading even works on stocks. If you have proof please do enlighten me.
Proof of any technique working is risk adjusted returns superior to buy+hold when using actual trades. (meaning if u do in delivery use delivery brokerage, if u test in fno test with fno brokerage, don't run a test on delivery with 0.06% brokerage. Trading breakouts in delivery will work really well and look amazing even though the strategy can only be executed by big institutions and not us traders who have to pay almost 0.7-1% for delivery including all taxes etc)

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