Bears are waiting but where??

At first i thought 3900 but bears might be overeager.
3820
3900
3971
4040
take your pick
one of these will hold
But the key point is 3220/2920/2600 is coming now.
april we might get a retest of 3570 min.

Liquidity continues to tighten
Another crr hike announced.
Be bullish at your own peril
Earlier 3760 gap up held
and bounced till 3820
3800 was regained but given the crr hike we might not do a retest of 3900.
My earlier view was that 3800 would be regained. (i.e one hurdle would be crossed, from support near 13 ema 3760 bounce, but res 3900 would probably hold, this time my vision was bulls in fast bikes, high flying jumping over hurdles
but they run into stationary bear trucks :))
translation to nifty levels 3760 13 ema would hold but 3900 would also hold or 3820 the gap down could hold because both of these can be considered stationary levels.
(moving averages are dynamic levels, while gaps/old highs/old lows are what i consider stationary levels)

a retracement within the first leg down
3900-375x will resist and set us up for a very nasty drop
Global cues would also be important

keep in mind last month's expiry near 3800 was purely a nifty option play
the 3800 put taken at 3900 doubled
then went right back to 0
those who booked profits quickly made money . those who got greedy got 0

Now the april puts: 3800 put for 115 is the reco
target is 230
sl is 115 price paid for put

reasoning is retest of 3570 is imminent.
and at 3570 the put would have 230 intrinsic value.

Also 3900 calls can be shorted for 70
Reasoning is 3900 is 0.5, 3961 is 0.618 and 3971 is also the collapse level for initial breakout to downside. refer to march 2004 charts the first rally to the big drop could not regain the initial downward breakout level.
hence 3900-3970 area is very stiff resistance and a monthly closing above that level is unlikely unless you believe this is a fresh bull market.
Any REAL bulls out there?