Technical analaysis

"Aquarius
January 20 - February 17
Surprising new developments in close friendships or love relationships could come your way today, dear Aquarius. Someone might move away, or perhaps move closer to you. This could prove to be a little unsettling at first, but once you get used to the idea you'll be happy. Social events and group activities could also bring unexpected events your way. Be prepared for some bombshells! On the downside: Expect some trouble with machines! "
Lets see. relationships: yes on a borderline relationship which needs to be cemented or broken in the next few days. (1 pt)
Social events hmm nothing there. (0 so far but the day is not over yet)
Be prepared for bombshells , thats easy in the stock market u always have bombshells... (1+ pt but cheesy comment easy to prove right )
Trouble with machines ?? Nope no trouble so far all systems working beautifully *touchwood* (nothing here, well my system hdd has been overactive past few days still haven't figured out which application is causing it.. yahoo 8 always crashes but thats a yahoo 8 specific issue which has plagued my system for months now: 7.5 was just fine.)
So score??
2 out of 4
50:50
Even with all this double talk accuracy only 50%
Also if you take the skeptic view then you would see that this general description could fit a lot of people..


Notice anything similar to the way technical analysts talk????
You say both up and down.
Here is my view about technicals. The money comes from the fundamental filter, its actually the fundamental part of technicals that makes money. The ones who don't see this are the ones constantly trying to turn gold into lead and lead into gold.
Nissan copper was probably a technical buy on listing... just kept breaking up
But people who chase lead and take it above and beyond the value of gold pay a price.. nissan copper listing day 40-120 then back to offer price 33 then lower 25!!!
Target is 50-80 in 2-3 years. (ipo will be used to fund capacity expansions, as and when capacity comes online it would be relfected in earnings and stock price. meaning we would hope that this reflection would be complete by the time the earnings are there even though it could very well happen much sooner or it could even take longer???? is it possible that the stock price might NEVER REFLECT THE ACTUAL VALUE OF THE STOCK?? DOES ANY TECHNICAL MASTER KNOW WHY FUNDAS WORK?? IF THE STOCK PRICE DOES NOT REFLECT THE IDEAL VALUE OF THE STOCK then IT IS A PRIME TAKEOVER CANDIDATE FROM OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR!! or its a candidate for hedgefunds who can come in rip it to shreds and extract book value.)


Today's commentary:
Market opened gap down mind you I am roughly 3.5 hours behind Indian time.
Raja (6/7/2007 6:49:23 AM): index is maintaining 4170 area in spot until that is intact there is hope 4180 is the rising channel 10 pts width allowed. for stoplosses


Raja (6/7/2007 7:29:21 AM): 4240 sl for bears 4170 sl for bulls
Raja (6/7/2007 7:30:40 AM): 4220 profit booking for bulls if u went aggro long and 4180 profit booking for shorts market needs to prove strength by going above 4240 before the positional players will come back u have too many brokern trendlines right now i suspect shorts building 4213-4222 sl 4245
Raja (6/7/2007 7:38:16 AM): my suggestion is short now : 4210-4220 sl 4240 target 4180-4100 but i am not good at shorting nifty so make sure to get a second opinion
Nifty future = 4210 at this time.... (nifty future formed double top and started heading lower...


Raja (6/7/2007 8:05:40 AM): aban strength in a weak market can touch 2850-3000-3100 and what not, targets sent yesterday
Note:(aban was a bullish pick of yesterday @ 2750 , entry basis = 2700+ target 2850-3000-3100, today closed @ 2844 in futures even with a weak market)

Raja (6/7/2007 8:06:52 AM): a lone bull stock like aban is like a lighthouse in the storm lost bulls are attracted towards it every bull wants aban. since bulls are only good at buying a die hard bull will just not short he'll look harder for that bullish opportunity and if u look hard enough there is always a bear with a loss in a bull market even if nifty is down
Raja (6/7/2007 8:11:26 AM): satyam mentioned on blog @ support 464 now 475 syndi @ support 77/76/75 stil holding dunno what hll is doing support @ 192
Note:(aban was suggested as a buy 2700++ (also suggested as a buy 2300 area in a pullback or something)


Raja (6/7/2007 8:11:26 AM): satyam mentioned on blog @ support 464 now 475 syndi @ support 76/75 stil holding dunno what hll is doing

Raja (6/7/2007 8:24:54 AM): nifty sl @ 4213 nf break even for bears u don't want to lose extra pts in any discount reducing short covering rallies
Raja (6/7/2007 8:25:12 AM): litl will touch 167 leave limit order to reenter long in delivery
Note:At this time litl was at 174..
Raja (6/7/2007 8:25:43 AM): also 165 srf = reentry

Raja (6/7/2007 8:28:00 AM): Retracements :154.55-185.7 0.236:178.349 0.382:173.801 0.5 :170.125 0.618:166.449 0.764:161.901 i have my limit order 167 but no guarantees maybe 170 can hold?? dunno


Raja (6/7/2007 8:36:22 AM): trailing stop 4205 for bears. don't give away money to this market if we go up discount reduction will kill u if we go down your targets are 4180-4140-4100
Raja (6/7/2007 8:41:00 AM): litl few days ago good news top u want to see how selling good news works?? watch suzlon next 3 days sometimes good news tops can take 1-2 days for distribution depending on how big the news is and how crazy the public is 9:1 the news is already discounted and in the price and any excess rallies are speculative
Raja (6/7/2007 8:43:58 AM): lichsgfin another strong stock in a weak market these should be your picks for next nifty leg up they will fly up the most

Raja (6/7/2007 8:55:38 AM): nifty we will also buy but only after all weak hands are out weak hands have sl 4180/4140 nifty which is the obvious level. i want to buy 4100 sl 4090
Raja (6/7/2007 8:56:58 AM): 167 litl milega??
Raja (6/7/2007 9:00:54 AM): System: Trend follower Stock Name: LITL-I BuyStrategy: Buy between s1-s2 S1:167.10 S2:169.00 R1:179.44 R2:187.05 Target1:172.327 Target2:176.135 Target3:180.705 SL1:165.473 SL2:160.903


Raja (6/7/2007 9:27:35 AM): litl surgical strike 167-169 buy zone day low 168 area now 173



LITL dropped to support zone 167-169 in futures. and gave T1 as an intraday scalp trade. maybe in 2-3 days it will give 176+


Raja (6/7/2007 9:41:47 AM): 4180 target reached cover half??? rest 4140-4110?? or be greedy?

Nifty closed @ 4179.5
THAT MY DEAR FRIENDS IS THE ONLY REALITY (addressed to mr. sarvesh :))
THE LTP
THE CLOSE
LIVE WITH IT

Below 4170 4140/4100/4054 etc allowed.
but even in this weak market I can find bullish picks that will make money to the upside
technicals are an illusion; the driving force is fundamental in nature.
technicals only tell you what is happening.
fundamentals tell you why it is happening and how long it can continue.
litl 2010-2011; Will be worth 300-600 rs.
Write it down and remember me then..
Prithvi short term weakness?? It will be at 400-500 next year unless some fundamental disasters happen :)
Prithvi Heading to eod trendline, spotted by dhiraj , he finally gave me a picture that fits his name , the patient support is 275 , i'll buy 100 more there to complete my 1000.

(again notice the if/then else, the stock market is about probabilities and risk management)
Drawdowns are part of the game of investing
No risk, no reward.
That is the other reality of the markets.
People who are afraid to risk only talk talk talk.
They don't trade.

I bought prithvi
bought gokex
without any regard for index technicals.
prithvi is pure p.e/p.e.g pick
gokex is also p.e/p.e.g/leading exporter of garments

I can't always be right prithvi is one of those stocks
that just keeeeeps oooonnn stagnating.
you want a stoploss for investments??? stoploss 200 rs :)
if you bought at 300
target 400/500 in one year, sl 200
risk is 100 rs reward is 100/200 rs..
from a technical perspective i can justify just about any trade!!

In fact if i remember correctly even last time i reccomended prithvi @ 330+
IT has severely underperformed the markets. It only hit 410-420 area and not 448 as I had targetted.
Every stock has cycles of short/medium/long term under performance and out performance.
Contrary to popular belief stock prices do not go to + infinity and -infinity
Which is what the basic theory of trend following suggests..

Warren buffet, peter lynch, soros
Some of the biggest names in investing are all fundamental analysts+contrarians.
If you know what a stock is worth you can buy on the way down with a lot more confidence and still sleep easily
Star another good news short 2 days ago trashed today by 5%
after 5-10 hours of distribution.
Keep an eye on suzlon will also face profit booking within 5 hours (5 trading hours)

Litl faced profit booking @ 186... few days ago after good news and retested the support level I had given on the way up itself: 167