Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Vision: nifty 4600 before end of year. sl for view. 3556
"problem with nifty is
i know the following levels will be touched
4100-4400-4600-4900
this year
I just don't know in which order :))"
One possible order that makes a bit of sense given recent weakness.
4100-4400-4640-4400-4900
S&P CNX Nifty, Analysis Date:6/5/2007
Close/cmp:4284.65
Swing : Up=Buy ( 4.100% sensitivity)
T1:4391.22 T2:4642.55
T3:5052.61 1xR:4454.65
ImpulseTargetZone:5303.94-5714.01
SwingHigh:4,217.9 CMP:4,284.6
SwingLow:3,617.0 SLPivot:3,981.1
Narrowsl:3,981.15
WideSl:3,834.36
The power of dreams...
Lets work backwards
3556 is the ultimate swing low for nifty's current move.
At what price point does it make sense to even try buying nifty if we have a longer term horizon?
(considering odds 50:50 we want reward=risk)
Lets look at my first target which is logical above 3556 (not just me, elwave agrees!!)
x-3556 = 4640-x
2x=4640+3556
x=4098
the second target should be a 2x risk target
2*(x-3556)=5052-x
3x=12164
x=4054
Hence my level 4100 is derived, using the massively power processing power of the right brain while i slept.
Without actually working forward through the steps. But this is the way i usually work my reward/risk when I am awake.
Thats called intuition.
I just did the same thing while i slept a few weeks ago.
The steps have to be verified after the answer has already been computed.
Of course acting on hope is the easiest way to get butchered in the market :)
So either use options with a view to hold till expiry with predetermined risk or follow a trading system.
max risk on option trades is 2/6/10% of equity, and since entire option amount bought is usually at risk if you follow my levels , work out the risk before you start dreaming about the rewards.
I checked elwave, It has the same view
Check out the screenshot.
Currently the reward/risk is not favorable for buying at all on nifty.
The elwave analysis will become favorable once we get a bit more of a dip.
So final analysis
for investors
buy 4098-4054
sl 3950 (exit below 3950, reenter above or use options) narrow
wide sl for delivery investors? 3556
target 4600-4900. (4640-5052)
Done.
Levels will not change for next 3 months
Regardless of what market does
Another area which allow entry based on pure reward/risk
2x=4400+3556
x=3978
Just in case you are a mega bear.
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