Vision1=Iron man goes into the stratosphere gets hit by a nuke
Two interpretations possible
a) Armageddon: Index gonna crash. Thats what I was leaning on earlier. May 2004/2006/2007 would fit in nicely with time cycles.
I was even suggesting may puts for a crash possibly below sub 3600 levels.
For april the reasonable target would be gap fill 3800 region.
b) Steel/iron stocks gonna crash
I didn't post this earlier because it was a bit too absurd
but now that my good friend has posted some news
some lafda in steel stocks possible, rhetoric by govt regarding raising taxes or lowering duties?
Anyway the reality is always more important than dreams
Keep in mind 'what goes up must come down'. This is especially true for cyclical industries. Not as true for IT stocks which have not run into growh ceilings yet.
P.S even large cap IT is trading at upper end of valuation band near 30x trailing. 25x is value for something that grows at 30% per year.
Perhaps a suitable adaptation for the stock market is
what goes up a little will come down a lot 0.382/0.5/0.618 of the way usually. (w2 retracement usually)
what goes up a lot must come down 0.236/0.382/0.5 of the way. (w4 retracement usually)
Look at tisco , res region 512-520, support 490, above 520 can try 526/540/600.
Tisco is the weakest of steel stocks, has been weak ever since acquisition.
Sail would have a false breakout of a 52 week high if it starts closing under 120
Also it is near monthly upper channel/t2 125
The upper channel actually reads 135 or so so it looks like the stock can inch up a bit more.
Anyway you can wait for the top to form. Short below the trendline or whatever techniques you like. There will be shorting opportunities in steel counters soon.
I've actually been trying to short tisco since 500 with 0 luck.
A friend of mine has been using his 'magic level' near 512 to short with a bit more success.
Vision2=Ghost army comes to fight
Old supports=New resistances
Refer to the picture of nifty.
Also check out the nifty picture.
Nifty has closed above 13 week ema after a very long time.
So now you got monthly/daily/weekly charts all saying up!
This could very well be a fresh impulse.
Positional weakness is only on a closing below 3900.
Sustaining above 3900 opens up 4240-4440 region if the rally is an impulse.
Refert to divis/titan/bhel charts for examples of fresh moves.
I anticipate a period of trader's remorse even if trend is turning up
3900-3950-3961-3971 consolidation with spikes to the downside possible.
Rising 13 eod ema+gap up can be first target 3800 region
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