Think contrarian?

prem prakash (4/17/2007 3:26:39 PM): Dream......... ...... makes all things possible Hope..............makes all things work Love ..............makes all things beautiful Smile................makes all above work possible Markets...........makes all of the above IMPOSSIBLE
Raja (4/17/2007 3:27:46 PM): what if you dream about the markets, love to trade, take losses with a smile and achieve the impossible
prem prakash (4/17/2007 3:26:39 PM): prem prakash (4/17/2007 3:28:29 PM): that was a fast thought to rephrase
Raja (4/17/2007 3:29:05 PM): gotta think on one's feet in the markets
prem prakash (4/17/2007 3:29:57 PM): u only forgot to mention the HOPE...... HOPE TO DO THAT
Raja (4/17/2007 3:30:19 PM):
Raja (4/17/2007 3:30:47 PM): hope can be a handicap
Raja (4/17/2007 3:30:50 PM): in the markets
Raja (4/17/2007 3:31:38 PM): sort of like buying a stock at highest p.e ever above 52 week highs
Raja (4/17/2007 3:31:42 PM): and hoping it will go higher
Raja (4/17/2007 3:32:05 PM): if its going higher fine, but when it stops, time to stop hoping
Raja (4/17/2007 3:32:29 PM): amazingly enough these days nifty has staged a miraculous recovery even without a rally in banks
Raja (4/17/2007 3:32:30 PM): or IT
Raja (4/17/2007 3:32:46 PM): kuch chakkar hai jo apne ko samajh nahin aa raha abhi

Doh missed hope :)
I have a bad habit of always trying to get in the last word , possibly a sign of immaturity. hmmm
Anyway its all perception.
W3/wc, w3/wc, w3/wc
:)
Kuch samajh aaya?
Hoping based on facts is good.
Hoping without facts is bad.
let me give an example
A trend following system
Which uses breakouts to buy long is likely to underperform risk adjusted returns of buy and hold nifty on eod charts.
So if one is trading breakouts only in one direction.
One is trading them on hope and not facts.
If one trades pure macd , the risk adjusted returns are also lower than pure buy and hold. If one uses rs filtering or advanced hedging techniques then one can make some improvements but still outperforming risk adjusted returns of nifty is a challenge.
If one has to beat the market i.e risk adjusted returns of nifty one needs a filter
The 2 filters which I think might hold the key are a) relative strength and b) fundamentals. The two sort of go hand in hand usually a higher relative strength stock is the one with better fundas (another form of market efficiency).

The 2 real money spinning systems I have are
a)hedged opening range breakouts
and
b) taking small moves off of the center of the trend near 13/21 ema. (both systems are using marginal loopholes in market efficiency and not looking to completely defy gravity by buying at insane levels or short at ridiculously low levels)

Oh and of course I do hope to master trading some day.
Can't say I have done it yet. I am just gathering the facts as I go along and having fun doing it. :)