Watch inflation numbers on friday

If inflation comes in sub 5.5%
then the market has an excuse to do an impulsive move up
Above 4040 fresh breakout on nifty begins
Target 4084-4140-4184
Target zone 4186 then 4440 (this is the impulsive scenario where 3556 low is done)
Below 4040+6% + inflation maybe we are setting up for a big slaughter, C wave below 3556 in may
I don't know 50:50
Fundas on sensex suggest downside shouldn't be that bad. considering next year eps of 1000 for sensex , 13-15k sensex valuations right now are justified with a 1-2 year view. One would still be outperforming interest rates. Mega value area remains 13-16x trailing earnings. Just look up nifty earnings and figure it out.

Only worry remains inflation. Because if that is up rates go up, interest costs go up
earnings growth slows , p.e goes down etc etc.



S&P CNX NIFTY, Analysis Date:4/19/2007
Close/cmp:4005.45
Swing : Up=Buy ( 9.200% sensitivity)
T1:4437.52 T2:4983.21
T3:5866.03 1xR:4516.4
SwingHigh:4,035.6 CMP:4,005.4
SwingLow:2,878.7 SLPivot:3,554.7
2xAtr14Stop:155.729
Narrowsl:3,554.70
WideSl:3,256.57
Lower Chan:3712.02 Upper Chan:4587.26
ResLine:4882.68

Retracements :4035.55-3554.7
0.236:3716.9 0.382:3817.25
0.5 :3898.35 0.618:3979.45
0.786:4079.8


Market managed to do the gap fill target
3930-3920. The gap on the eod chart is now gone
Covered the 3900 put 27-39 and 3800 put 15-13
Now short 4000 put and 4000 call
for 80 and 40
Loss only if expiry is sub 3880 or 4120+
Will hedge around 4000 mark as needed. Above 4000 i am long and below 4000 i am short.

We seem to be sustaining above the upper channel of the previous swing breakout. This means some serious weight has to be given to the possibility of a fresh impulse

As long as we are above 3971 or so bullishness can continue.

Watch hcc , gave the expected pullback
strength is only above 96 . As i said earlier v shaped bottoms are rare affairs.
System: (Tripple Screen EMA/FibChannel follower)
Stock Name: HINDCONS
Buyarea=96.3455
Support1 :95.0778 Support2 :96.2492
Resistance1:104.044 Resistance2:108.855
ATR(14)=4.81141
Target1:97.3078 Target2:101.157
Target3:104.044
SL1:95.3832 SL2:91.5341
Sl to be employed on closing basis

Trade long if intraday supports are holding in hcc

Tcs looks interesting 13/21 ema daily/weekly chart consolidation, triangular formation
If it breaks up can touch 1440

Vision: the light will prevail over the dark. Presumably thats bulls winning over bears
I don't know. Playing slightly bullish for now.