Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Nifty in another sideways correction



A friend of mine who shorted 4000 was getting worried
I guaranteed him 13 hour ema would come :)
Natural area for price/time balancing acts.
Came today

Unfortunately i cannot guarantee 3920 or 3820.
Thats the reason why today I hedged the 3900 put taken for 27 with short 3800 put for 15.
wave c or wave3, the eternal debate.
Also intraday i will prefer to trade the long side of the market, that is another way of being hedged. So today traded sbi/utibank long for small moves.
Tomorrow will try hcc/maruti/mnm/ipcl/tatatea.

If this is a sideways move then 3980-3975-3971 supports
gap up near 3900-3920 is a very strong support area which is my first target zone for the downside.
If bulls keep pushing then from 3980 they can attempt 4040-4080-4140-4184
All kinds of interesting possibilities are there.
if We go 4080++ then 3980 would become a key level.
Check sensex, I believe it has still not broken 0.618
Thats what we call divergence.
Check bank nifty has not even staged a breakout
More divergence.
Check autos?
U see a breakout there?
Maybe a bottom is forming, true near 52 week lows
+ 13x earnings , But the bottom is not even confirmed yet.
Maruti watch for triangular bottoming action support near 755
Breakout only above 800++
But if the trend is your friend.
Then every single ema in maruti is lined down
Indiacement did 174 walaa target. Now support at 168-165 , next target is at 188 then 200, At 200 might be a short 50% retracement of full decline from top to bottom.

Lots and lots of bullish calls have worked like magic.
jetair 606-616-626 buy area started from the dip stop held
worked its way up to 645-665 target zone
tatatea 622-700 almost today stop held target hit
indcement 158-156 buy area worked its way up to 174 stop held on closing basis target hit
rcom 404-408-410 buy area worked its way up to 434-441, narrow stoploss broken but not on closing basis, wide stop held, target hit
ipcl above 280=300-314 hasn't given the pullback entry, 284 is pullback buy area.
Then again a long time ago: Ipcl i gave the buy near 5x p.e @ 230 went slightly lower first but target for investors was atleast 290 within few months. Already done, now time for bonus till 314-350 as long as 280 is being held.

Check out hcc on fundas
I think it must be near value zone now
A very long time ago
I mentioned a funda report said hcc was worth 85-100
This was when hcc was at 160
No one bought the theory
The slightly weak results came
stock broke support
has underperformed since
Now
its at funda value
Stock is breaking res near 98.8 V shaped bottom don't be in a rush to buy, some good news is coming, pullback to 94-95 possible sl for traders=close under 90 or so
Target can be huge 120-130 easy
V bottoms btw are rare
u wanna see some consolidation after the V shaped bottom is done
either a sideways move(cup and handle) or a pullback(inv hns)
Infact the stock might not even do a deep pullback if its forming a cup+handle.
Might just hover around 98.8-100 and then break up much higher.

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