Cues negative, world down a tad, iip expected to come in lower

Key question: Can we hold the supports with the weak cues?
hourly charts might top out below 2870 ish
below that 2830/2800/2770/2700
We really need to hold 2830 to keep the breakout/momentum intact on the short term charts.

Bears are gonna have a field day today with all the negatives.
What I want to see is whether we can rally post the weak IIP
if we can then we have a good chance of going higher until then ultra short term looking to short.

Also keep an eye on REL to see if it can clear 626 that will be a sign of things to come
triangle or abc.

Nifty chart analysis

3 charts for nifty dec series.
Invhns type of move forming for bulls
for bears maybe a triangle and they'll keep trying to short on the way up finding every level/resistance as an excuse.

My view? 3260+ likely
HSI did it
dow almost doing it.

And guess which stock is leading the rally in nifty??
REL...
much closer to old high 626 cmp 606 ish.

Power sector remains my favorite sector, fundamental reasons.
So for anyone who says technicals precede fundamentals. Think again.

Rel was damn 'weak' at 360-400 (relative to nifty)
now its 'strong'.




I need to find some kind of economic calendar for India so I can be prepared ahead of time for the major data releases.
If anyone has an idea, leave a link.

For the u.s there are lots of sites with good coverage.
Need something similar for India.
I wonder why cnbc tv 18/moneycontrol don't have any organized section
they added the indiaearnings site which is a good step. They should also add something along the lines of an economic calendar.

REL Inv hns

Rel inv hns breakout above 626 but strong above 470
play long target 520-540-580-626-666-726
sl below 470

BHEL

strong above 1324 sl 1300
target 1355-1370-1456-1550
Chart later: feeling lazy.

Still stuck on the CAT....

Spent more time on cat 2008 analysis
I guess scores vary a bit depending on which answer key is used!!
TIME: 29/45/66 total 140 required 18/28/42/120
Career Forum: 29/45/66 total 140 vs required cutoffs 28/32/46/116
IMS: 29/45/66 total 140 vs required cutoffs 32/32/46/120
CL: 29/45/56 total 130 vs required 30/26/44/121
PT: 29/45/66 total 140 vs 39/29/47/115

I think clearing the cutoff means 1 call and every 4 pts above the cutoff could mean one additional call.
Usually 24 pts above the cutoff would mean almost all calls.
Screwed by quant I suspect... I probably have the basic cutoff for all iim's except A/C
Lets see what happens.

Anyway, getting back to trading: I will post a good chart soon , I promise :)
Just waiting for REL to confirm eod low.
I don't wanna analyze 20 stocks and make 50 trades. I just want one big move for december.
Its the big inv hns patterns/double bottoms etc that I talked about earlier; REL will give the best setup of all.

CAT 2008 written test is over, but I'm still not quite over it.

                      QA DI EU OVERALL 
Your Score            29 45 56 130 
Predicted CAT %ile    87.62 97.56 99.4 98.48 

I can't quite seem to get over the 98.4 pctilish score in CAT 2008. another 45 seconds/1-2 questions in Quant could have meant IIM A/B/C.
Cutoff for iim means around 97.5 pctile barely enough for iim i/k/l
a/c take in much higher scores 98.5-99.5pctile
(Even harvard takes in 95-98 pctile .... but india. of course.. 99.9999999 is what u need to win out here)

iim-b I guess is the exception as it pays more attention to work exp in its selection process.
Unfortunately for me. full time trading for 2 solid years counts as 0 years of work ex!!!
I wonder who would make a better asset manager 3 years from now:
Someone who spent 2 years in a cubicle at tcs/infy and then did an mba finance from iim??
Or someone who actually watched almost every tick for atleast 2 years, studied almost every significant theory on trading the markets and watched/traded one full bull/bear swing.

I think the avg placement salaries are bothering me along with possibly missing out on the 'iim' brand.

IMI avg : 9.89 lakhs, pctile : 94
IMT avg placement: 12 lakhs, pctile 95
Mdi/SPJain avg placement: 12.5/13.5 lakhs, pctile 96-97 (spjain pays more attention to work ex)
IIM I/K/L: 15 lakhs pctile 98-99
IIM A/B/C: 17.5 lakhs pctile 99 (iim b pays attention to workex)

I gotta take a break of some sort to get my mind off the CAT.

U.S bailout package

Keep an eye on news about the U.S 700 billion dollar relief/bailout package.
I have a hunch that some news on this front will will seal the lows for 2008.

Raja vs Cat 2008

According to CL:
For atleast one IIM call:
QA:30
LRDI:26
EU:44
Overall cut-off:120

CAT 08
Name : RAJA  Booklet No.: 222
Total Attempts: 55  Total Correct : 37
QA  LRDI  EU  Total
29  45  56  130.0

Cutoff i.e 97.5 ish percenile 120-125
130 is probably around 98-98.5 percentile..
99 would have been nicer but oh well

Anyway this is all theoretical: final results sometime in Jan: Still going to need some serious luck to get an IIM (A/B/C) Call. Most likely will get calls from some one/2 of iim i/k/l and mdi/spjain/imt/imi.

http://time4education.com/cat2008/catanalysis_home.asp
http://edutalkindia.blogspot.com/2007/07/mba-cutoff-through-cat-score.html

I love the comment by Time4education:The set on ‘Share prices’ would have stumped anyone who dared to get into it.

The set involved analyzing intraday trading strategies of some fictitious characters and figuring out
a) who made profits if prices did xyz
b) what prices did based on which fictitious character's strategy made profits
Guess how I did on that set :D

Rcom might move up

Pure hunch support 220-215.
Can touch 260-270

UPDATE: target 251.. 260-270 area bonus.
res levels on fib 231/237/242/249

Old short tatapower

Short tatapower again. It hit the final target of 520 ish last time on the way down.
Now Tatapower has res at 777-800, sl 800/820/864. Bearish trend on eod ends only on a close above 864, basically its not gonna happen anytime soon. So I suspect its time to sell this rally.
short for 724-699-687-656-640-625
If 525 old low breaks tatapower could test 480-430 region, but that will probably only happen in a panicky market and no real signs of that yet.
U.S Market is already down so tomorrow will be a gap down. I actually gave the short call on tatapower and rel today intraday around 760 but you can play your own levels.

Corrrection soon

Can't give the exact top, just look for a top on hourly charts.
Target 3000-2950-2900-2850
Major res at 3260
then at 3565-3640
problem with shorting up here is if you short too early you get stopped out
and then miss the real move down. so one can wait for hourly charts to confirm a top and then trade the charts with the proper stops

Market bottom done for now?

Look for inv hns and breakout setups on stocks this month.
Already gave hdil earlier it moved up early.
Its still 140+ but consolidating 148-156. Should touch 176 soon.
Next week more short covering in banks and realty since rbi just cut rates.

I will start posting bullish setups for nov/dec when I start seeing them. ex this punter lightweight stock coreprotec just blasted 20-40% in one day... Basically whatever breaks has to be bought now. Shorts are in trouble, squeeze the life out of them. Doesn't matter if its a punter who is short or if its a silly FII/hedge fund.

Bears will keep predicting 2100; they were right about 3600 and 2600 even 2300 but can we go lower?? Select stocks did touch nifty 2k equivalent lows, hell some stocks even went down to 2004 bull market lows. So yes the market is erratic but just because the indiv stocks went down doesn't mean the index will go down all the way..
Thats part of the beauty of diversification :)!

My favorite pick for the next bull market=RELinfra and second in line is rcom.
Rel moved up from 360-460 not bad right? but wait for 520-600-660 much more left.
Sure there will be more dips along the way but every dip is a buy in RELinfra.
Ex. Rel if it dips now on eod , lets say it goes to 520-660 and then dips. 99% chance in my view of a higher low, then u have inv hns and then you get explosion up later..... So basically bottom is done. If you wanna fight it be my guest.
Rcom will post chart soon when I see the setup. Might have a minor breakout above 227 but tough res near 234-244, then 260-270. Not sure if it will react harshly from 234 and then do the higher low so rcom is riskier. Results were damn good. profit growth vs expected drop. RCOm is trading near a p.e of 16, for a company thats gonna grow at 16-20-40% thats damn cheap.

CAT is on the 16th, 2 more weeks of studying then I'll get back to coding some really new and cool stuff :). Right now pretty erratic on the trading side.
I'm practicing with the old CATs. My scores have improved slighlty, I think I'm pretty close to the 99pctile mark in both GMAT and CAT now.

I took the Cat 2007: Got 128 vs around a required score of 100-120 for 1-6 iim calls
2005 cat: Got 64 vs 49 for IIM calls
Now I just need to get a 99pctile in the actual 2008 CAT.
Gotta work a bit more on my Quant/DI skills.
Anyway I think I really should make it into atleast MDI if not IIM. + I would be more comfy at MDI, its right here in Delhi . I'd like to clear the cutoff for IIM mostly for the bragging rights :).

REL 360 wolfe wave buy, target 500 , picture later, cmp 373

Keep in mind wolfe alone is not that powerful.
u need a level
360 is 3 year rel low.

Nifty 2304-2314 is late 2005 low
early 2005 low 2000-1950 area nifty
we wanna be long now
for atleast 3000-3600-3800
depending on timeframe

Titan double top target 680-572-543 weak below 930

Titan weak below 937 and 900 can touch 695-572
Results already out, nothing can save it, except a move above 1020

SBI HNS

Old hns big picture 1622-1562 broken supports
got retested now smaller picture hns breaks below 1368
Refer to old post:
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2008/06/just-charts-part-ii.html


Momentum will increase only below 1295
targets 1231-1165-1147-1100
panic low of july 1000 area ultimate target




P.S: Mind you I am bullish nifty 2950/2800/2600
These are humongous supports for nifty and we could get a 20-30% rally, I am bearish on sbi/tatapower.
Just be careful because a 'rising tide lifts all boats' to some extent anyway :)
2 more candidates for late lateef tops=hll/itc will post pics later.

Tatapower futures triangle upper TL res @ 800

HNS TARGET is around 620-560
old consolidations 660,570,508 (if tatapower had been trashed like nifty or rel it would be closer to 500 right now.


watch the res near 790-800 from the upper end of the triangle
Follow the technical levels
triangular action res: 800
my targets 670-600-550

tatapower p.e 20 ish
REL p.e 12 ish
tatapower bv: 426 ish
rel bv: 477
rel cmp 505
tatapower 790

i think the two will converge. only caveat: remember the saying the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Last excuse to short: bearish wolfe wave , though not a perfect one
Wolfe would predict a very sharp decline to 480 ish




Update:
Triangle developing as expected abcde all done now for breakout below 695-670 area
that will open up the targets of 567-565 and 527 (which is this triangle's technical target)

HDIL no idea about fundas but its breaking up.

technical breakout above 140/148
follow the action around 140-148 and try to play long.

looking for 175
HDIL, :17/10/08
Close: 125.65
T1: 136.158 T2: 157.707
T3: 192.865 1xR: 178.5
Tech Target: 190
Narrowsl: 101.00
WideSl: 76.97
SwingHigh: 139.8 CMP: 125.7
SwingLow: 89.5 SLPivot: 101.0
ImpulseTargetZone : 214.4-249.6
Lower Chan: 104.099 Upper Chan: 154.394
SupportLine: 104.099 ResLine: 126.799

Hindalco

4x earnings
birla group
book value 140
buy at 60-70 target 140 in 2-3 years
and maybe 200-210 in 5 if we get a boom in metals that early.

REL:Another large cap at book value: 477

Book value 477
Few years ago this stock formed a major bottom (All time low 360)
also happened to be near its book value at that time.

Granted fundas don't always work but they're much more likely to work with large caps than with mid/small caps.

rel eps=42
rock bottom valuations 420
as far as i know rel is flush with cash.

UMPP will require more cash but they've already done the rpower ipo for that so i'm guessing there is atleast a decent amount of cash with ambanis to execute a few power projects.

REL should head to 1000-2000 within 3-5 years

Nifty big Big levels, this is where you build up your portfolio for the next 5 years.

Expect broken support 3800 area to be retested if 3200-3000 holds.
Probably gonna tank once from there, so look for a short setup near 3800. If u.s goes through with the bailout then we might just rally through 3800 but otherwise I suspect it will give good res.

As for the longer term bull perspective
You can place your 1-2-3-4 wherever you like.
Just check the elliot osc, read up on bill will/aget etc. the basic idea is if elliot osc is pulling back to 0 line, then assume w4. If you have divergence and a lower high in elliot osc + a drop then w5 is over.

Simple stuff:
1-2, 3 big wave,
4th consolidation.....
but the 4th must end above wave 1 top...
Thats the key. w1 top = 2000/2004 highs near 2000-2100 nifty.

Fundamentally p.e of 10 for the stock market is pretty much the ground floor for large caps. (trailing 10x = 2250, forward 10x =2600 ish)
I already went all in on friday so I do have a bullish bias.
Some fresh FDs will mature in july or so , so until then I got nothing to do in the market.

Still studying for the CAT.
Still don't have that perfect 6pack..
I think I'll bulk up a bit more then cut back to get a lean muscular look.
Right now 1 rep max on the bench is 200 pounds, Goal is to take that up to 300.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12859029
My BMI is around 22, optimal bmi for my age group is 21.6. So I don't wanna drop too much weight, just wanna drop a bit of fat and replace it with muscle.
Might take a year or 2 to get in perfect shape.

Even my portfolio is a little chubby right now. I have way too much rcom. avg price 400 need to book half in a rally and diversify. The gap down 480 area is mega res and should hold in most rallies.

It might also take the market a year or 2 to get up to any real levels where people like me can earn a profit (I've made 2 major investments this year 4600 and 3200.., now I can't really buy any more and I sure as hell am not selling at a loss considering I am only 27. I can wait as long as it takes. In the long run I'll still outperform FDS.)

Favorite sectors: power, pharma, telecom, metals
If I can free up some more cash will buy REL
on friday I bought rcom/tisco/ranbaxy.

Mega cap at book value??

Tisco book value 300
I just bought @ 310.
eps around 64-70.
few years ago eps was as low as 40-50
Anyway
http://in.biz.yahoo.com/081009/203/6yfu1.html
arcelor expects ok numbers.
I don't and the market doesn't..
Steel stocks have crashed. More price drops to come but I think that tisco's profitability will go back to pre bull market levels..
Last time tisco was at 300 was when I started trading..
2004 ish.
So I think I'll just hold for 3-5 years and exit at a p.e of 10 around lets say 800-1000 rs.

Keep in mind bear markets are sharp violent affairs. especially near the end of local waves. I'm not saying nifty is done tanking but such a violent spike could lead to a profit taking/pullback rally maybe a consolidation between 3000-3600-3800. If we had held 3800 then 5k would have been my jan target but since we broke that. Jan target is around 4400 now.

Nifty strong support at 3300-3000-2800-2600
2600=ground floor
eps of nifty = 225
If anyone has estimates for fy2009 nifty/sensex earnings estimates, then please do leave a comment.
old estimates for nifty earnings would have been 20% eps growth
so 270 eps. or 2700 ground floor
but fresh estimates might be lower around 250-260?? I really don't know.
But if I had to pick an area then the break all your bank deposits and buy nifty
region would be 2300-2700.
10 times forward earnings (since current yield on a fixed deposit is around 10%)
(I still have some fds... all fds start getting broken if we touch 2800-2600 and 2300)

Market might touch 3900 in a panic

I have this weird hunch that 3900 will be retested.
Target for next bull market is 8-10k nifty.
almost 9 months done, maybe 3-9 months left in this bear market.

Still studying for the CAT so don't have much time to trade or post.
scoring around 80/300, 40/75 attempts, 60% accuracy.
and this is around 95th percentile...
need to get to around 100/300 to get into the 98-99 % area.
That should be good enough for iim/fms/mdi.

Very high probability of a bottom at 3824

3824 very very imp support also rising channel area 3900
keep an eye on these levels.
My view is bottom has been formed.

I've been out for a while, will probably be missing for a bit longer.
gotta study for the CAT
the interesting thing about the CAT is , just like the stock market u don't have to be 70-100% right to be the best.
a raw score of 50% on the cat will probably land you in the top 0.5% in India

The longer term rising trend channel

Lets hope this is only a Wave IV...
Even if it isn't and its a much bigger corrective wave.
Then we can hold this channel area and rally; maybe an x wave before more downside.

Look to buy

Buy nf 4260 sl below 4210
support is 4230 ish
Target is gap fill 4540-4580.
Source based + charts indicate very strong support at 4240-4230

Nifty downside targets if we sustain under 4430

Just targets for bears who were crazy enuff to hold their shorts below 4430.
4380-4240-4230-4189-4111-4063-3956-3900
3900-4000 is probably the next area where one would try counter trend long.
anything higher is significantly more risky.

Bulls might do best to take a break from the markets until we get some stability.

Short nifty on rallies

res 4640-4670 sl 4680
target 4530-4430
missed the early morning short...
The high of course was a fib level 4680.
Mentioned in previous post.

Right now intra 4565 nf support/4583 ish spot
gonna try to bounce from there get a lower hourly high then disaster for bulls.

Last few days the automated short setup didn't trigger. finally triggered today.
STOCK : S&P CNX NIFTY

Sell v4633.46, SL :4682.48, Tgt:4498.96
lets see if this one finally works out.
This is the machine.. not man :)
anyway its only 50% ish accurate.

Chess and markets

http://www.global-derivatives.com/download/files.php?func=download&id=129http://www.cs.vu.nl/~aske/db.html
http://www.chesscorner.com/games/deepblue/deepblu.htm

http://www.chess-analysis.com/chess-software/deep-blue.html

Do you think you could beat deep blue? or for that matter even some simple grandmaster level chess program?
What % of humans can beat a pc at chess?
What % of humans can beat a pc at trading?

Leave a comment.

Timepass predictions

Important warning. I never trade pure predictions.
Entry/sl has to come from intraday structure.
REsistance 4610-4640-4680 will hold
target 4430

support 4400-4430 will hold target 4720-4770
resistance 4770 will holdtarget 4480
market expire within 4400-4800 range most likely right in the middle 4600 ish.

Its just a script. we'll score it on the basis of number of turning points hit after one month.

Res Levels

Short setups for bears
levels 4610-4620 gap fill area
next old high that gave res 4710-4720 area.
Today tried short but the damn bulls didn't give up intraday and held their gap ups.
Tomorrow most likely gap down.

Support remains 4430-4500 area.
we had a good bounce from sub 4430 levels which to me is a good sign.
We might just have done the bottom. vertically anyway.
Now for the horizontal part.
Refer to old post on channel lines.
We have hit one channel line , still have to hit the wider uptrend channels.
Best case for bulls 4430-4470 gets retested and is held.
Worst case 4000 area etc is still a possibility

stocks worth investing in
LT/bhel , capital goods 25-30% cagr, bhel near 25x trailing good value. lt dunno p.e but it has wierder valuations anyway. always read a few funda reports before buying in delivery.

Midcap space i like indiabulls and idfc.
buy in declines.
Both can double in a few years.
30-50% cagr for these two is possible.

Infy double top+wolfe wave tgt 1700 below 1850 sl 1920/2000

Timepass trading

Check out http://www.gcitrading.com/
you get a cfd/share trading demo totally free for 30 days. anyway fun part is live rates and trading practice! Sophisticated traders might actually want to consider a full fledged account so they can hedge their positions in the indian market against just about anything!!
commodities? exchange rates? global markets?
If you guys know of any other such international brokers who will let one trade in a wide range of instruments leave a comment.
I didn't fully understand the interest cost in gcitrading , it was only levied on crude positions and not on other positions.

What i really want to do is get a full fledged automated trading account.
put in 10 lakhs in it. And double my capital every year :D.
I know I have the skills to write the code for trading systems which can do this even after accounting for ridiculously high slippage and poor execution.
What I seem to be lacking is the discipline to follow my own systems at times.

ex. on friday i had 3 short setups ntpc/jpassociates/relcap i took only one...
needless to say didn't make much.

Market morning call

http://stquote.sgx.com/live/dt/DTFuture.asp?INFE
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

I believe today's gap down will be retested on wednesday morning most likely with a gap up.

Random conversation, people will keep asking me the levels so i figured i'd post it in one place.

[15:23] rajak1981: S&P CNX NIFTY, :6/6/2008 2:53:59 PM
Close: 4656.65
T1: 4494.33 T2: 4341.83
T3: 4093.01 1xR: 4330.55
Tech Target: 4117.5
Narrowsl: 4,743.15
WideSl: 4,871.06
SwingHigh: 4,956.2 Stoploss: 4,743.1
SwingLow: 4,536.9 CMP: 4,656.6
ImpulseTargetZone :3940.5-3691.68
Lower Chan: 4498.66 Upper Chan: 4720.05
SupportLine: 4720.05 ResLine: 4485.04
2xAtr14Stop: 98.3549
TrailingSL: 4,714.85
[15:23] rajak1981: buy at t1
[15:23] rajak1981: buy at t2
[15:24] rajak1981: buy at t3
[15:24] rajak1981: investing perspective
[15:24] rajak1981: trading can short for the targets from 4540 region , don't short the gap down
[15:24] rajak1981: most bullish case which bears cannot see right now
[15:24] rajak1981: is 4494-4500 area holding out
[15:24] rajak1981: i.e no new lows
[15:24] rajak1981: most bearish case which bulls will not see right now
[15:24] rajak1981: is all the way till 3600
[15:25] rajak1981: i'd say consensus is 4000k area could be tested

my view?? 33% t1, 33%t2, 33%t3
all equally likely.

Just another manic monday??

Monday looks like a mega mega gap down since dow jones is down.
contrarian call buy 4600 call target 100-120-160
for june
so the buy zone has to be 50-60-80 max
sl = 0 target double/tripple
buy 2-3 lots sell half at double , sell full at tripple

hedge for 4600 call long = 4800 call short if/when the 4600 call moves into profits.
try to sell 4800 call for around 30 or try to sell the 4750 call option for 50.



forming an intermediate bottom can be a painful exercise, will take a while.
If you get a gap down on monday take profits on all shorts.
For friday I had reccomended short relcap/ntpc, did try trading nf long but got stopped out for a loss of 10 pts.

If you want to be on the intraday call list on yahoo my id is rajak1981@yahoo.com
you need to be online to receive msgs.

Nifty in a triangle?? no new lows? will 4440 hold?? or will we do a wave C carnage till 4000-3600 nifty?

Title says it all.
Bought indiabulls/bhel/bel/albk today.
Had moved into 50% cash earlier, now only 25% cash.
My reccomendation to everyone is start buying around 4560-4507 invest 33% now
33% if a 5% drop comes and final 33% if another 5% drop comes. so @ 4000 ish one should be fully invested
4500-4250-4000

Aggresive strategy is 50% @ 4560 ish then 50% at 4250
In both strategies if market does not go below your buy price and confirms an eod bottom then remaining capital can be deployed on the way up!

Only mega bears will be talking of nifty 3600 but hey anything is possible :).

Just charts part II

Old Trade setup that HIT EVERY SINGLE TARGET!! SBI SHORT!!
when it broke below 1585 ish



Note if you can't figure out how to trade this chart
then i would suggest reading martin pring+bullkowski.
All patterns come with targets/stoplosses.
So here we go, pattern of the day head and shoulders :)

Just charts

A picture is worth a thousand words.
So I'm going to post a few pictures which look interesting to me.

Time pass reverse engineering trading systems

Here is one of my hobbies.
Figuring out code given a set of trading signals

Check out trendrider original+ my replica





and eageleye trading system+my replica.




I think 1-2 signals might be off by just a bit. but the general concept is captured i think.

Now i know this isn't challenging stuff... I've actually been meaning to code mt pred replica and t3 fibs replica.
I am just being ridiculously ridiculously lazy thats all.
I can see 100% of the code for mtpred in my head and maybe 90% of t3fibs....
one of these days, i'll finish it all :)..................!!!!

trend rider apparently sells for 31k per year though i can't see why in gods name its worth even 1 rupee
no idea of eagleeye pricing.

Mt pred=1 lakh per copy, t3 fibs 4 lakhs per copy
Of course in India, nothing sells only pirated copies galore :)
I guess thats one of the reasons I am not too motivated. Even if I code all this stuff it'll be a major headache to market it.

The longer term bull case

Buy any dips to lower channel on the weekly charts.
Marked as green/light blue in this chart.
The primary support levels for the wIV are
33-38.2-50% retracement levels
which read 4680/4430/3930 on my charts
so basically 4.4k-4k massive buy area
sl 62% at 3.6k or the old low at 3.5k
which is like 12k sensex?
target will be 8k/10k/15k nifty for the wV when it comes

This dip is going to be the investment opportunity of a lifetime....
So while traders will try to trade it short
Investors should try to accumulate good shares at bargain valuations.

The Bear Case

Bulls: Banks+Realty

Go long on realty/banks
Worst of the subprime crisis and interest rate/inflations fears are already PRICED In. A few crr hikes here and there won't really kill the liquidity entirely and the impact on banks' net interest margins is expected to be around 6bp (emkay report).

So there is only one way to go: up
funda picks albk 84-170
axis bank 944-1200
boi 333-425
icicibank 901-1600
uinon bank 163-240

Rbi meeting is done and we got a nice breakout yesterday in bank nifty and bse realty.
Watch for breakouts some have happened some will happen soon
bank nifty is still 40% below the all time highs!! within 1, 2 years max those highs will most likely get tested again.
Short term even if its a pullback 50-62% retrace of the entire fall is easy. stronger banks have have already done those pullbacks.

Realty : hdil, omaxe, purvankara, ivrprime.
Short term 10-20% easy on breakouts. for investors maybe even 100% with a 2-3 year timeframe.
Most of these stocks are trading around 50% of nav based on funda reports which I saw in feb. Will post details if I get time later.

Simply don't have a lot of time these days
Trading takes up 6 hours
trading prep takes up 1 hour
gym takes 2 hours
cat prep is another 2 hours
and I'm also supposed to squeeze in 1-2 hours of cardio which hasn't been working out lately.

6 pack is not quite done. It'll take a lot longer to get all the way up to a Hrithik Roshan standard six pack. If I wanna go the SK way then I guess I just gotta drop another 5 kilos, but I'm not a big fan of the ESP look (emaciated six pack)

Secret to Trading/Investing

One word
Discipline.
This is for the guys. This market is going to remain choppy.

If you're too addicted to trading take a break!! If this really is a w4 on monthly then any trend following system is going to get slaughtered over the next 6 months.
So for all adrenaline junkies I would suggest finding something else too get rid of the adrenaline addiction.

Here's my latest pastime.
http://www.iwantsixpackabs.com/home_my_story.html
http://www.wikihow.com/Get-Six-Pack-Abs
Currently up to a 4 pack from a 2pack.
6 pack in another 8-10 weeks.
We all know we can have a gr8 body if we eat healthy and exercise. How many of us do?
We all know that the key to trading is to cut losses and let profits run. How many of us manage to do that?

Its all about discipline. I wasn't even trading in the drop from 6.4k-4600 and my portfolio lost nearly 50% because I didn't take profits at the right time. Luckily for me I had a fresh infusion of funds near nifty 5k so I've just bought a lot more stuff near 5k. Now I get to hold. Even if this market goes down. The strategy is simply to hold the delivery positions.

I'm invested right now, not excessively leveraged around 1.2x. can take a drawdown till 3k nifty.
might have to break a fixed deposit if we go under there. Not seeing any such trouble just yet.
Now I just gotta hang on. Thats the discipline part. I've made some investments which I believe are made at bargain prices and there is nothing to do but hold.
The most important part of investing/trading is probably position sizing/risk management. When trading u gotta worry about where your stoploss is and figure out the right size of your position based on % risk to capital.
With investment usually the risk is 100% on every position. i.e stoploss is 0.
So if sl is 0 and you wanna manage risk, try not to invest >10% of equity in one stock.
If a stock moves too far up compared to the rest of your portfolio you get to take profits and invest in something new.

For now I am trading tiny positions. Will resume trading bigger positions as soon as I see some profits on those delivery positions and I see some stability in this market.

If trading I would stick with the brokers/telecom/power/punterstocks in bull moves because this market seems to be lacking breadth. relcap showed gr8 strength past few days. Rcom/bharti might outperform going forward.
550-600 is a good investment area for rcom for a target of 950 in 1 year. (Merryl Lynch)

Bears Be careful

One of the great rules of trading based on trend following.
Don't sell short or go long into a major moving average.
i.e do not mess with the trend.
5k area is the domain of the bulls. thats the 200 dma area.
We're going to be buying :)
I know I am
5000 calls
and maybe some investments in midcaps near a p.e of 5
I like Patni. Some news of a buyback as well, the book value is around 211 which is also around the recent low that the stock made in jan/feb.

What amazes me about this market is that on the one hand people worry about a recession and on the other hand you got metals trading at a p.e of 10 while gr8 companies with solid cash flows are trading at a p.e of 5 or lower and some stocks are even lower than book value.

Wouldn't mind picking up something in the metal space if I see a p.e of 5.

Possible w4 on monthly

W4 on monthly
6 months of consolidation
expected damage was 20% from the highs min, max 35%

that is 5100-4200 roughly.
anyway 5000-5100 200 dma area invest.
Lots of stock available at garbage rates
like p.e of 3-5
at or below book value especially in the midcap space.

after this six month consolidation, the target of 15,000 nifty and sensex 50,000 will open up. Will post the chart when the target is visible.
Only traders who have the stomach for volatility should even bother trading this market.

Previous post was 5k support 6k res.
6k held gave 5.4k then 6.4k was hit
next 5k broke and 4.5k ish came.
Basically we're in this 5k-6k band for the next 5-6 months.