World markets in trouble

Watch the rising channel.
Earlier bulls were so insanely bullish they were refusing to hit 3987-3975
Now if you read over mushtaq khair's view he is allowing for as low as 3900
which is the rising channel of nifty.
http://www.shareanalyst.com/newsletter.htm

If u check the automated trading system
it triggered buy on gap up
Then triggered sell intraday
http://niftytraders.blogspot.com
markets are 50:50. very few people can call the market better than that over long durations and if they are calling it better than 50:50 their reward/risk is not as good and they are not generating money with their calls.
The automated trading system calls the market around 50:50 (40:60 if you take the small stoplosses) but has a high profitability ratio (returns>risk adjusted buy+hold nifty)
Also keep in mind intraday or ultra short term trading is best done in fno where comissions are low and liquidity is high.

see the reward/risk of calls given yesterday?? 4030 entry? 4020-3965 sl
narrow sl on nifty might get hit on gap down.
now we can go lower , longer term view intact 3900+ = 4440 possible


In order to truly manage risk one must have a trading account in world markets. Otherwise this gapup/down kills. I should get an account on nasdaq, would have been so bloody easy to hedge nifty longs with indian adrs short. Oh well, this goes on my todo list. The purpose of heding is not to make mega profits but to avoid mega losses. once boe raised, europed died, u.s could have died and did die and a global fund can easily hedge while us small traders get stuck with overnight longs.

This is the problem when all the bulls become bears overnight. Just because all world markets are down, everyone is going to take tension and want an exit tomorrow.
For those who took the 4000 call? if u took for 120. Hmm atleast your max risk is limited :)
As for me I will be a bear only below rising channel. The channel defines the trend, till the channel rises, trend is up. Tomorrow if we do gap down will be profitable to trade the short side of most stocks. may 11th anniversary, bears make a comeback :), w3/wc, w3,wc the debate rages on. One solution to w3/wc debates
is to be on the the right side of the breakout/support/res at all times. That creates lots of entries/exits, hence option setups.

Keep in mind I am a mega bull target new high possible: 4400 if 3900 sustains and we get a higher low on eod charts. That converts into an option trade of buy 4000 call for 100-120. Reasoning is simple even if we went long at 4000 we would need a 100 pt stoploss and at the target zone of 4200-4440 the call would double or quadruple.

Watch dow 13200 if that doesn't hold?? Then markets will be in a bad bad mood.
Those who took futures?? if dow closes 1-2% down we will open 2-3% down?
Anyway rising channel support remember 3965-3915
For longer term positions which are held on lower leverage can stay long.