Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Rcom investment

Rcom invest at 460-450
If you have booked profits in futures. invest some of the profits into delivery.
Hold for 1-2 years.
target 30% cagr in lines with earnings growth of 30-40-50%
30% returns on investment is a conservative target over the timeframe of next 2-5 years
Lets just look at 2 year targets
450*1.3 585 next year
then 585*1.3 760
Just rough estimates based on fundas

morgan stanley /merryl lynch have said
520-770 fy07, 08
fits with my figures
currently available at a p.e of roughly 30 times trailing
15 eps, * 30 = 450
I am taking the benign view that the balance sheet is not manipulated in giving these targets

Now lets see if my technical swing can throw up a level near 760 for us as the next target??
Here is the call in technical format for obsessive compulsive technicians who do not understand fundas and desire a stoploss.

RCOM, Analysis Date:5/8/2007
Close/cmp:462.5
Swing : Up=Buy ( 18.000% sensitivity)
T1:784.388 T2:1037.14
T3:1449.53 1xR:665.7
ImpulseTargetZone:1702.28-2114.67
SwingHigh:518.8 CMP:462.5
SwingLow:186.1 SLPivot:372.0
2xAtr14Stop:35.2682
Narrowsl:372.00
WideSl:280.95
Lower Chan:417.022 Upper Chan:670.383
ResLine:629.552
Retracements :518.85-372
0.236:440.321 0.382:391.74
0.5 :352.475 0.618:313.211

0.764:264.629
Notice the swing size
18%
this is an investment timeframe
not a typical trade
not to be taken in fno
since holding period is 2 years.
narrow sl can get whipsawed
wide sl should hold

Also if you were a trader
entry 460, sl 372 means risk of 90 rs
target of 520/784 means reward of? 60-224 rs
decide for yourself if the trade is sensible?
at 450 its a clear cut trade :)

I am going to also mention short term technical swing levels
Trade long only above s2 or s1 for intraday
use the targets mentioned

System: Trend follower)
Stock Name: RCOM
Buyarea=452.072
Support1 :460.02 Support2 :451.62
Resistance1:480.47 Resistance2:498.27
ATR(14)=17.8059
Target1:460.975 Target2:469.878
Target3:480.561
SL1:448.511 SL2:434.266
Sl to be employed on closing basis,

Fresh breakout is only above 484 and will target 515 within 3 sessions of breakout


These are based on my trading system , the one that 'walks on water' metaphorically speaking anyway i know i am a crazy person not people understand my views sometimes.
Vision=krissh , walking on water, twin peaks possibly being scaled?
If enough people insist that they do not want to hear about my dreams i will remove that too.

I will be the first one to say i am only 50% right, you don't need to tell me i am 50% wrong :). But when i am right the profits are 2-3 times as big as the losses.
Thats the way to make money.

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