Thursday, May 03, 2007

Random

A good trader is like a diamond.
The strength of a good trader comes from having withstood huge pressure.
If you haven't suffered big losses yet, then you probably havevn't developed the tough exterior yet. Nifty is expected to consolidate 4000-4200/4240 then head for 4440.
Since 'w2' of the move was a sharp expecting either flat or triangle or a complex correction of some sort.
Up till 4240 or so first then down a bit 4100-4040 maybe no new lows then 4440. Next big topping out level is 4440 then 5550 or so.

Ever heard trump regarding real estate? "Location, location, location".
When it comes to trading: "Stoploss, Stoploss, Stoploss"
Beginners are concerned with being right. The pros are concerned with risk management. The logical stoploss for bullish count is 3900 w1 top.

See my top picks for w4 moving up
colgate 340 sl 336
hll 200 sl 198
same setup on both: colgate gave almost 6-7% in two sessions
while hll weakened on results
same technical setups different fundas/reactions to results.

See auropharma 660 support region narrow support 669 or so whipsawed for one day
Wide sl 654 held perfectly on closing basis, did 704 in 2-3 sessions.

rcom support 448 held sl 447 and 440: did 480 in one session on good results.
Fresh move is brewing in rcom, support 466 target 480-484-515 soon.

tcs was given as a pick at 1205: sl 0. So its not a TRADE its an INVESTMENT. Even as market was dipping, clear view on tcs it grows at 30% anytime it comes under p.e of 30 it becomes a 'value' buy. The investment is based on forward eps expectation of 50-55 rs for fy08 and target of 30x fy08 for next year.
Tcs is trying to break clean nof an eod triangle, 1270-1320-1370-1440.

idbi was given as a breakout call above 84, sl 80/78
retested breakouot pt after hitting my res at 88-90 and now trying to break clean of channel, above 92 might open 94-102-114. Breakout traders might want a piece of idbi now but the dip was at 82-84.

hcc earlier died, why? bad results
hindlever? same : results not good enough
a technician cannot see the bad news coming all the time.
cipla for instance triggered a breakout before it crashed on bad results
for next 5 years every time someone tells me that breakout trading works and charts reflect everything i will give the example of cipla.
If insiders know that the market has lots of breakout traders wouldn't they like to trigger a breakout so that they can go short in an even bigger quantity???
The market is designed to break every pattern, for every pattern there is a counter example.
hns is reliable? what about w4 hns
triangle is reliable? what about a terminal triangle?
pivot break is reliable? what about the gartley or abc correction?
trendline break is reliable? what about the wolfe wave
that is the beauty of the markets, for every idea there is an opposing idea
There are always some peopple who will come and take the other side of a trade without proper regards to fundamentals or technicals.
Any and every pattern can fail. The only thing that saves you is the stoploss for the pattern.
Thats the main reason patterns are so useful they tell you entry/exit/sl

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