Saturday, May 05, 2007

Rain Calcing Inv hns










A couple of people were asking me about raincalcing.
hourly turning up, yearly up, daily, weekly, monthly trends down.
So you have the potential for a very long term bottom if this works out. Macd is actually turning quite bullish.
The monthly charts have monster supports @ 25.5-21

Buy inv hns above 35, supports 33/31/28/25
Targets 36.7/39/40.23/43/46 timeframe 2-3 weeks.
How you chose to manage the trade is up to you.

My suggested risk management plan is using the levels of my fibonacci system.
RAINCALCIN, Analysis Date:5/4/2007
Close/cmp:32.95
Swing : Up=Buy ( 5.000% sensitivity)
T1:34.2583 T2:35.7956
T3:38.3038 1xR:38.15
ImpulseTargetZone:39.8411-42.3494
SwingHigh:35.0 CMP:33.0
SwingLow:31.0 SLPivot:31.8
2xAtr14Stop:2.89684
Narrowsl:31.75
WideSl:29.77
Lower Chan:32.648 Upper Chan:36.1221
ResLine:34.6665
How to trade:
Buy above swing high or above 0.5 retracement level for early entry
Sl : use narrow or wide sl or the support line

Pattern:IHSunc:1
Retracements :34.95-31.75
0.236:32.5052 0.382:32.9724
0.5 :33.35 0.618:33.7276
0.764:34.1948

If you are convinced of the fundas with respect to its peer group then just buy. The market can be stupid for extended durations.
If the long term fundas of this stock are good this stock could easily be forming a major bottom here with a target of 52-56 sl of 20.
Timeframe 2-3 years.

p.e of maybe 7 right now: don't have full details because the people who asked for this stock didn't give them to me so i just eyeballed it, not my best value pick but looks ok.

If you ever need advice on a stock
Feel free to ask me on niftytradersinc@yahoo.com
But before you ask me for a price target you have to understand how I think.
I can read a chart and give you the levels+targets, sl/support/res etc
I cannot turn lead into gold.
The same chart pattern can have different consequences depending on the fundamentals involved.
If all the charts start moving the same without regards to fundamentals then it is a sign of market complacency and potentially a big correction ahead.
I would rather be long on gold when its at the price of lead
and short on lead when its at the price of gold.

A breakout on a good funda stock like rcom/bharti/tcs/infy/realince is more likely to be an impulse meaning you will get followup in the upward direction after the first breakout allowing you to follow the trend longer and make more money.
If you try to follow the trend on a horrible funda stock. What might happen is :
Wave c up will come, you will keep your stoploss below w1 top or below w2 lows and you will get stopped out later @ near break even or a small loss.

A breakout in something like a weak sugar which is making losses is likely to lack w5 type followup. The only strong sugar right now is renuka. i think it is still trading at 8-10x fy08e, its getting ready for a w5 now it seems. i don't know how its making profits, but its supposed to keep making profits in fy08.
W3/Wc the eternal debate, my filter? fundamentals.
So if anyone ever asks me for technicals keep this in mind before you ask
I need
fy07eps
fy08eps
fy09eps
book value
debt/equity
current ratio/quick ratio
I need these values for not just the stock in question but also for one stock in the same peer group (same size, same sector).
If you cannot make the effort to look these values up for me. Then please do not expect me to look up the charts for you.
I am quite content to trade stocks which I understand both technically and fundamentally.
Unlike other people who will be polite and say ok, or I'll look it up for you later , I'm just gonna ask you to do this before I look up the stock.
I'll make an exception if you have strong insider news but then if you have insider news why on gods green earth would you need a technician's view???
:)

1 comment:

Maya Aaliyah said...

Good Post Keep it up thanks for sharing the information.
How long do you plan to invest? How much do you expect to earn on this investment?

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