Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Aftek infosys: Value stock

I think this stock was brought to my attention originally by prem
near 56-60 levels
http://www.valuenotes.com/Valuechase/valuechase_aftekinfosys_24jun06.pdf?ArtCd=85778&Cat=C&Id=122
This is a multibagger in the making on the funda side
When chasing a small/midcap keep in mind 10% of portfolio and 2% max risk rule.
Since this stock is wild. Lets say you want to use a stoploss below 52 week low
that could be a 30% risk from cmp. If you are only allowed to risk 2% of your total capital on aftek then you may only buy 100/30*2 = 0.6% of your portfolio or so.
Also i am not giving a stoploss so the actual risk i am asking you to take on this trade is 100% of price paid. One can consider limiting exposure to as low as 1-2% of capital (since 0.6 might be too tiny), if investing as i am suggesting. That way you can buy and forget it and let it grow on its own and still sleep easy.

"Company growing at a CAGR of > 40% over last 6 years
 Price to Book Value (PBV) ratio of 1.27 as compared to 4.8 for peer IT companies
 PE of 6 against the Industry average (Peer Co.) of approx. 23
 Profitability ratio (PAT / Sales) of 33% against 17% enjoyed by Peer
Companies
 Debt Free Company with Cash and Bank Balance (incl. Loans to Co.) of Rs.46 per
share besides investments, business virtually available free for Rs.10-, PE of
Rs.1-
 Investments in Technology companies with strong business models and huge
potential
 Total Foreign holding of 35% as of March 2006"

Morgan stanley has bought as high as 80-90.
Now you can either say morgan stanley is stupid or you can think the way i like to think: morgan stanley is thinking the stock will touch 160 in a few years.
Btw morgan stanley bought at my first funda target, when prem said buy at 56-60 I said our first target should be p.e of 10. 9 rs eps we bought at p.e of 6 so 10 p.e target = 90.
Check the high made in the recent bull run. Make no mistake, the funda investor outperforms the technical investor in the long run. This stock will go much higher as long as the fundas are intact, i.e as long as growth continues.

Has anyone bought this on my reco??
Someone was complaining to me that 90% of my calls underperform the market
What do you guys think? Do my calls underperform the market. Leave a comment.

At what price did I reccomend aftek ? Is it underperforming the market?
Will it underperform for any significant period of time? How does one measure performance? The pros use capm to measure performance, alpha/beta which this someone has never heard of.
I had bought aftek in delivery recently @ 56 in recent panic but got out too early in a quick rally to 64 based purly on nifty levels because I needed to free up some cash. I am regretting the early exit now :).

aftekinfo+prithvi are my next two roltas in the making! Rolta was my top value pick at a p.e of 5 80 rs per share 16 rs earnings. The stock now has maybe 40 rs earnings and trades at 400 +. Also keep an eye on my other value pick jstainless reccomended at a p.e of near 5 when it was at 120, everyone was saying buy sail on technicals
(sail was also @ 120 then but p.e of 9-10) and I was saying buy jstainless on fundamentals. I still believe jstainless will outperform over a slightly longer timeframe. Mixing technicals+fundamentals can be a problem. I got my market timing wrong since I was so obsessed with the fundas that I was long in jstainless during feb/march correction. As a result I didn't hold for the long haul.
Rolta i bought 80 and sold at 100 twice. This time I'll try to stay in prithvi/aftekinfo for a slightly longer term view.

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