Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Keep buying rcom

Technicians will say rcom has underperformed bharti is weaker and will continue to do so. That is what a trend follower does.
Do you know the difference between a leader and a follower?
An alpha male and a bottom feeder?
Wayne Gretzky (Hockey legend) said, "Skate to where the puck is going, not to where it is,"

Rcom support is now placed near 474-480 sl stays below 448-460 target zone is 494-515. some selling is inevitable near old highs.
The initial buy call was 410 then 440, 448, 464.
Next entry is 474-480 if we do get a dip.
Keep in mind target was 520 for fy07 we're a little late but we're almost there, considering we already did it once in feb :)
If u do the target ahead of time in an efficient market you correct.
In an inefficient market u go crazy.


Think independently , go over the balance sheets of all 3 rcom/idea/bharti , try to get the scoop on future prospects , check out the views of the big guys from a 2-3 year perspective, form your opinion, check the charts, find a stoploss and trade it. In my view Rcom is cheap and it will grow like crazy in the next decade.
520 for this year.
650 next year
760-1000 in 2 years.
2000-3000 within 6 years.
5000 within 10 years.

Rcom will outperform both these other two telecom stocks in 2 years.
Thank me for this 'idea' in 2 years. not now
2 years ago i was saying tcs over infy. tcs used to be at 10-20% discount to infy
Now it trades at par on p.e terms.
The people who are stuck in the past are still insisting buy infy+short tcs and play for the return of premium in infy. To those people I can only say good luck :)

Here is a quote from a report by macquarie.

"Cheap valuation and recent stock underperformance should help drive the
stock
􀂃 RCOM is still trading at a significant discount to Bharti. Based on FY09E EV/ EBITDA
multiples, RCOM is trading at a 21% discount to Bharti. The discount of RCOM’s valuations to
Bharti has been on the rise during the past 4-5 months. One of the main reasons behind the
increasing differences has been the widening gap between the market share of the two
companies. However, RCOM’s aggressive subscriber acquisition strategy should see a narrowing
of this market share differential over the next few months. We believe this will also lead to a
closing of the gap between the trading multiples of the two companies. In our opinion, RCOM
should be trading at a discount of ~10% to Bharti, not any larger.
􀂃 The narrowing of the market share differential between RCOM and BHARTI should lead to stock
outperformance as is evident from stock underperformance vis-à-vis Bharti in the period when it
lost relative market share."


"
Among the cheapest Asian wireless stocks on growth adjusted multiples
􀂃 On a growth-adjusted basis, RCOM is one of the most attractive stocks in our Asian wireless
universe. On the basis of EV/EBITDA-adjusted for EBITDA CAGR (EV/EBITDA divided by twoyear
EBITDA CAGR), RCOM is trading at multiple of just 0.40x compared to the Asian average of
0.46x. On a PEG basis, RCOM trades at a multiple of just 0.66x, one of the lowest among the
Asian wireless universe.
􀂃 RCOMS is the second most inexpensive stock among India’s large high-growth stocks both
on EV/EBITDA/EBITDA CAGR and PEG basis. We believe the market is not pricing in the strong
growth that RCOM should see in the next few months. RCOM’s stock price should see significant
upward movement as the market corrects the anomaly."

3 comments:

Baron said...

nice work mate, problem is cdma & quality users with bharti, so bharti will always remain premium, for eg basis most bigger users use rcom phones as a secondary phones

Raja Kumar said...

This is a reliance company we're talking about here.
It is my view that if reliance really wanted to attack the premium segment they could

Anyway the massive growth is actually in cheap services.
First you gotta get people hooked. Then keep giving them incentives to upgrade.

Raja Kumar said...

reliance finally enters gsm
anyone surprised??
I am not :)