Dabur: Accumulate in dips. 20% cagr for next 5 years safe investment

Trailing eps maybe 3.2 or so
fy08e 3.9
fy09 e 4.6

For me value is at 20-25x trailing , next year i would be willing to pay 80-100 rs for this stock. If its already at 88 where is the upside, 100/88 barely 12% I'd rather own a fixed deposit!!
Anyway don't go short or anything crazy, just look to buy in a panic if the market allows. Otherwise look for better investment opportunities.

Meaning I am a funda buyer at 75-80 or so for fy2007
market won't take it to 64
Though that would be ultimate value buy in a panic.
Just remember the levels for investment
target 160 in 5 years.
no stops as always on funda investments, you want a stoploss? try 50 rs.

DAbur is also expected to enter retail which could lead to higher valuations.
Just see pantaloon retail trades at 50x or something ebitda/ev or something, dunno look up the details and leave a comment on what u think.

Merry lynch says price objective is 104 1 year
Here is a copy+paste from the relevant report. i just recieved this report 16th march 2007. Compare my views (posted few days ago) with the pros :). Gr8 minds think alike

"Valuation marginally ahead of peers
Dabur is trading at P/E of 22xFY08E versus the sector (excl Tata Tea) at 20x. On a
PEG basis it is at 1.1x versus sector at 1x. We believe Dabur deserves some
premium for a diversified portfolio of powerful brands and a very strong track record."
􀂄 Estimates (Mar)
(Rs) 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E
Net Income (Adjusted - mn) 1,558 2,270 2,790 3,355 3,967
EPS 1.81 2.64 3.24 3.90 4.61
EPS Change (YoY) NA 45.7% 22.8% 20.3% 18.2%
Dividend / Share 0.832 1.17 1.46 1.75 2.07
Free Cash Flow / Share 1.70 (0.405) 2.92 3.41 3.50
Valuation (Mar)
2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E
P/E 49.02x 33.64x 27.39x 22.77x 19.26x
Dividend Yield 0.937% 1.31% 1.64% 1.98% 2.34%
EV / EBITDA* 37.11x 26.84x 22.15x 18.57x 15.80x
Free Cash Flow Yield* 1.91% -0.456% 3.30% 3.84% 3.94%