nifty counter trend trade setup

buy 3640 call at 80-70 or near spot price of 3556 whatever call price is at that time hold till expiry, no stoplosses.
target 140-240 before expiry
pure hunch
using the think two steps ahead approach :-?
one step ahead = w5 of wa down will terminate near lower channel/ t1 3556 support/0.5 retrace/200 dma

2nd step = 0.382-0.5 retrace of full rally = 3820-3898
pullback to w4 highs = 3840 target
translate to call price = 180-260 target
+/- premium/discount

min target = gap fill 3720
even then call price target would be 140 before expiry

first gap down below 3965 = w3 breakaway
second=temporary exhaustion
since all weak hands will get taken out

slightly longer term until 3965 is holding nifty will target 3400-3300-3200
for april/may
This long call trade is purely speculative against the trend but at lower channel
On any rally to 3750-3820-3840 buy puts for april
max rally is 3900
so 3800 calls can also be sold on rallies.


in may 2006
wave a down terminated near 2900-200 dma
and a pullback till 3200 came
then again 2900 was lower circuit :)
will we do a circuit first before the pullback??
if we do that circuit then clearly the upside targets would change
and u might have to take a break even on the call