Nifty 50, Trend?? 50:50 !!

3656 area is a big key
market has not done any of the logscale targets for a 5th wave , only the arithmetic objective near 4200 or so has been met.

longer term bull market top near 4400-5550 (p.e of 25-30) is what i would like to see
but for now we follow the trend
Once we break this falling channel and go into a fresh bullish channel we can once again start dreaming of my mega bull market targets of 4440-5550
= sensex
So ultra short term traders following the trend:
3616-3656-3700 support but - > 200 pt falling channel resistance
Keep in mind that it is not 3656 which has to hold to keep this bull market intact even a visit to 3000-2600 would allow for 4440-5550 without ending the longer term bull market , it would just be a mini bear market within a much longer bull market

Market is heavily oversold right now.
Even if you are a bear and u see 5 waves down, what comes next?? (right now what i see from the bear perspective is 1-2-3 down (3rd extended , w4 type of rally soon meaning wa down not even done yet if i were to see things in a bearish fashion)
So now if we go down do a 5th within A wave down we still expect what?
abc pullback? Unless you count a mega extended move forming to the downside??
So I believe a 200 pt rally is coming. But from which support will it come?
If 3676 held pullback till 3876 +/-40 pts
if 3656 held pullback till 3856 +/-40 pts
If 3600 held pullback till 3800 +/-40 pts
Its just not feasible to be bearish on nifty at such oversold levels.

Now if you are a bear you will look to go short near falling 200 pt channel
sl levels for bears = 3965/4177 (w1 of a ka bottom or w2 of a ka top)

Remember the bullish count is that the decline is a 5 wave c of a flat.
But we really need to hold 3600 to keep the bullish structure of the market intact.

Now because we have these 2 opposing forces
The worst case possibility is a H&S top on nifty
meaning 3656-3600 could hold u could get a secondary relief rally then the bigger c /3 down
Best case scenario is 3600 will not break and market will just go up into a fresh bull move and do my bigger tf w5 bull market targets


To see the fundamental value area of nifty consult my old post
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2006_12_01_fnocharts_archive.html

fundamentally stock market doesn't look topped
However its not exactly at a gr8 value area also
value area on technicals is that 30% rising channel
around 14x current earnings 2900-3100 or so nifty spot.

for longer term investors
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2006_11_01_fnocharts_archive.html
keep in mind 20k is intact till july lows of sensex hold and however damn bearish you are it is not gonna be easy to break those panic lows!!