Nifty big Big levels, this is where you build up your portfolio for the next 5 years.

Expect broken support 3800 area to be retested if 3200-3000 holds.
Probably gonna tank once from there, so look for a short setup near 3800. If u.s goes through with the bailout then we might just rally through 3800 but otherwise I suspect it will give good res.

As for the longer term bull perspective
You can place your 1-2-3-4 wherever you like.
Just check the elliot osc, read up on bill will/aget etc. the basic idea is if elliot osc is pulling back to 0 line, then assume w4. If you have divergence and a lower high in elliot osc + a drop then w5 is over.

Simple stuff:
1-2, 3 big wave,
4th consolidation.....
but the 4th must end above wave 1 top...
Thats the key. w1 top = 2000/2004 highs near 2000-2100 nifty.

Fundamentally p.e of 10 for the stock market is pretty much the ground floor for large caps. (trailing 10x = 2250, forward 10x =2600 ish)
I already went all in on friday so I do have a bullish bias.
Some fresh FDs will mature in july or so , so until then I got nothing to do in the market.

Still studying for the CAT.
Still don't have that perfect 6pack..
I think I'll bulk up a bit more then cut back to get a lean muscular look.
Right now 1 rep max on the bench is 200 pounds, Goal is to take that up to 300.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12859029
My BMI is around 22, optimal bmi for my age group is 21.6. So I don't wanna drop too much weight, just wanna drop a bit of fat and replace it with muscle.
Might take a year or 2 to get in perfect shape.

Even my portfolio is a little chubby right now. I have way too much rcom. avg price 400 need to book half in a rally and diversify. The gap down 480 area is mega res and should hold in most rallies.

It might also take the market a year or 2 to get up to any real levels where people like me can earn a profit (I've made 2 major investments this year 4600 and 3200.., now I can't really buy any more and I sure as hell am not selling at a loss considering I am only 27. I can wait as long as it takes. In the long run I'll still outperform FDS.)

Favorite sectors: power, pharma, telecom, metals
If I can free up some more cash will buy REL
on friday I bought rcom/tisco/ranbaxy.

Mega cap at book value??

Tisco book value 300
I just bought @ 310.
eps around 64-70.
few years ago eps was as low as 40-50
Anyway
http://in.biz.yahoo.com/081009/203/6yfu1.html
arcelor expects ok numbers.
I don't and the market doesn't..
Steel stocks have crashed. More price drops to come but I think that tisco's profitability will go back to pre bull market levels..
Last time tisco was at 300 was when I started trading..
2004 ish.
So I think I'll just hold for 3-5 years and exit at a p.e of 10 around lets say 800-1000 rs.

Keep in mind bear markets are sharp violent affairs. especially near the end of local waves. I'm not saying nifty is done tanking but such a violent spike could lead to a profit taking/pullback rally maybe a consolidation between 3000-3600-3800. If we had held 3800 then 5k would have been my jan target but since we broke that. Jan target is around 4400 now.

Nifty strong support at 3300-3000-2800-2600
2600=ground floor
eps of nifty = 225
If anyone has estimates for fy2009 nifty/sensex earnings estimates, then please do leave a comment.
old estimates for nifty earnings would have been 20% eps growth
so 270 eps. or 2700 ground floor
but fresh estimates might be lower around 250-260?? I really don't know.
But if I had to pick an area then the break all your bank deposits and buy nifty
region would be 2300-2700.
10 times forward earnings (since current yield on a fixed deposit is around 10%)
(I still have some fds... all fds start getting broken if we touch 2800-2600 and 2300)

Market might touch 3900 in a panic

I have this weird hunch that 3900 will be retested.
Target for next bull market is 8-10k nifty.
almost 9 months done, maybe 3-9 months left in this bear market.

Still studying for the CAT so don't have much time to trade or post.
scoring around 80/300, 40/75 attempts, 60% accuracy.
and this is around 95th percentile...
need to get to around 100/300 to get into the 98-99 % area.
That should be good enough for iim/fms/mdi.

Very high probability of a bottom at 3824

3824 very very imp support also rising channel area 3900
keep an eye on these levels.
My view is bottom has been formed.

I've been out for a while, will probably be missing for a bit longer.
gotta study for the CAT
the interesting thing about the CAT is , just like the stock market u don't have to be 70-100% right to be the best.
a raw score of 50% on the cat will probably land you in the top 0.5% in India

The longer term rising trend channel

Lets hope this is only a Wave IV...
Even if it isn't and its a much bigger corrective wave.
Then we can hold this channel area and rally; maybe an x wave before more downside.

Look to buy

Buy nf 4260 sl below 4210
support is 4230 ish
Target is gap fill 4540-4580.
Source based + charts indicate very strong support at 4240-4230

Nifty downside targets if we sustain under 4430

Just targets for bears who were crazy enuff to hold their shorts below 4430.
4380-4240-4230-4189-4111-4063-3956-3900
3900-4000 is probably the next area where one would try counter trend long.
anything higher is significantly more risky.

Bulls might do best to take a break from the markets until we get some stability.

Short nifty on rallies

res 4640-4670 sl 4680
target 4530-4430
missed the early morning short...
The high of course was a fib level 4680.
Mentioned in previous post.

Right now intra 4565 nf support/4583 ish spot
gonna try to bounce from there get a lower hourly high then disaster for bulls.

Last few days the automated short setup didn't trigger. finally triggered today.
STOCK : S&P CNX NIFTY

Sell v4633.46, SL :4682.48, Tgt:4498.96
lets see if this one finally works out.
This is the machine.. not man :)
anyway its only 50% ish accurate.

Chess and markets

http://www.global-derivatives.com/download/files.php?func=download&id=129http://www.cs.vu.nl/~aske/db.html
http://www.chesscorner.com/games/deepblue/deepblu.htm

http://www.chess-analysis.com/chess-software/deep-blue.html

Do you think you could beat deep blue? or for that matter even some simple grandmaster level chess program?
What % of humans can beat a pc at chess?
What % of humans can beat a pc at trading?

Leave a comment.

Timepass predictions

Important warning. I never trade pure predictions.
Entry/sl has to come from intraday structure.
REsistance 4610-4640-4680 will hold
target 4430

support 4400-4430 will hold target 4720-4770
resistance 4770 will holdtarget 4480
market expire within 4400-4800 range most likely right in the middle 4600 ish.

Its just a script. we'll score it on the basis of number of turning points hit after one month.

Res Levels

Short setups for bears
levels 4610-4620 gap fill area
next old high that gave res 4710-4720 area.
Today tried short but the damn bulls didn't give up intraday and held their gap ups.
Tomorrow most likely gap down.

Support remains 4430-4500 area.
we had a good bounce from sub 4430 levels which to me is a good sign.
We might just have done the bottom. vertically anyway.
Now for the horizontal part.
Refer to old post on channel lines.
We have hit one channel line , still have to hit the wider uptrend channels.
Best case for bulls 4430-4470 gets retested and is held.
Worst case 4000 area etc is still a possibility

stocks worth investing in
LT/bhel , capital goods 25-30% cagr, bhel near 25x trailing good value. lt dunno p.e but it has wierder valuations anyway. always read a few funda reports before buying in delivery.

Midcap space i like indiabulls and idfc.
buy in declines.
Both can double in a few years.
30-50% cagr for these two is possible.

Infy double top+wolfe wave tgt 1700 below 1850 sl 1920/2000

Timepass trading

Check out http://www.gcitrading.com/
you get a cfd/share trading demo totally free for 30 days. anyway fun part is live rates and trading practice! Sophisticated traders might actually want to consider a full fledged account so they can hedge their positions in the indian market against just about anything!!
commodities? exchange rates? global markets?
If you guys know of any other such international brokers who will let one trade in a wide range of instruments leave a comment.
I didn't fully understand the interest cost in gcitrading , it was only levied on crude positions and not on other positions.

What i really want to do is get a full fledged automated trading account.
put in 10 lakhs in it. And double my capital every year :D.
I know I have the skills to write the code for trading systems which can do this even after accounting for ridiculously high slippage and poor execution.
What I seem to be lacking is the discipline to follow my own systems at times.

ex. on friday i had 3 short setups ntpc/jpassociates/relcap i took only one...
needless to say didn't make much.

Market morning call

http://stquote.sgx.com/live/dt/DTFuture.asp?INFE
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

I believe today's gap down will be retested on wednesday morning most likely with a gap up.

Random conversation, people will keep asking me the levels so i figured i'd post it in one place.

[15:23] rajak1981: S&P CNX NIFTY, :6/6/2008 2:53:59 PM
Close: 4656.65
T1: 4494.33 T2: 4341.83
T3: 4093.01 1xR: 4330.55
Tech Target: 4117.5
Narrowsl: 4,743.15
WideSl: 4,871.06
SwingHigh: 4,956.2 Stoploss: 4,743.1
SwingLow: 4,536.9 CMP: 4,656.6
ImpulseTargetZone :3940.5-3691.68
Lower Chan: 4498.66 Upper Chan: 4720.05
SupportLine: 4720.05 ResLine: 4485.04
2xAtr14Stop: 98.3549
TrailingSL: 4,714.85
[15:23] rajak1981: buy at t1
[15:23] rajak1981: buy at t2
[15:24] rajak1981: buy at t3
[15:24] rajak1981: investing perspective
[15:24] rajak1981: trading can short for the targets from 4540 region , don't short the gap down
[15:24] rajak1981: most bullish case which bears cannot see right now
[15:24] rajak1981: is 4494-4500 area holding out
[15:24] rajak1981: i.e no new lows
[15:24] rajak1981: most bearish case which bulls will not see right now
[15:24] rajak1981: is all the way till 3600
[15:25] rajak1981: i'd say consensus is 4000k area could be tested

my view?? 33% t1, 33%t2, 33%t3
all equally likely.

Just another manic monday??

Monday looks like a mega mega gap down since dow jones is down.
contrarian call buy 4600 call target 100-120-160
for june
so the buy zone has to be 50-60-80 max
sl = 0 target double/tripple
buy 2-3 lots sell half at double , sell full at tripple

hedge for 4600 call long = 4800 call short if/when the 4600 call moves into profits.
try to sell 4800 call for around 30 or try to sell the 4750 call option for 50.



forming an intermediate bottom can be a painful exercise, will take a while.
If you get a gap down on monday take profits on all shorts.
For friday I had reccomended short relcap/ntpc, did try trading nf long but got stopped out for a loss of 10 pts.

If you want to be on the intraday call list on yahoo my id is rajak1981@yahoo.com
you need to be online to receive msgs.

Nifty in a triangle?? no new lows? will 4440 hold?? or will we do a wave C carnage till 4000-3600 nifty?

Title says it all.
Bought indiabulls/bhel/bel/albk today.
Had moved into 50% cash earlier, now only 25% cash.
My reccomendation to everyone is start buying around 4560-4507 invest 33% now
33% if a 5% drop comes and final 33% if another 5% drop comes. so @ 4000 ish one should be fully invested
4500-4250-4000

Aggresive strategy is 50% @ 4560 ish then 50% at 4250
In both strategies if market does not go below your buy price and confirms an eod bottom then remaining capital can be deployed on the way up!

Only mega bears will be talking of nifty 3600 but hey anything is possible :).

Just charts part II

Old Trade setup that HIT EVERY SINGLE TARGET!! SBI SHORT!!
when it broke below 1585 ish



Note if you can't figure out how to trade this chart
then i would suggest reading martin pring+bullkowski.
All patterns come with targets/stoplosses.
So here we go, pattern of the day head and shoulders :)

Just charts

A picture is worth a thousand words.
So I'm going to post a few pictures which look interesting to me.

Time pass reverse engineering trading systems

Here is one of my hobbies.
Figuring out code given a set of trading signals

Check out trendrider original+ my replica





and eageleye trading system+my replica.




I think 1-2 signals might be off by just a bit. but the general concept is captured i think.

Now i know this isn't challenging stuff... I've actually been meaning to code mt pred replica and t3 fibs replica.
I am just being ridiculously ridiculously lazy thats all.
I can see 100% of the code for mtpred in my head and maybe 90% of t3fibs....
one of these days, i'll finish it all :)..................!!!!

trend rider apparently sells for 31k per year though i can't see why in gods name its worth even 1 rupee
no idea of eagleeye pricing.

Mt pred=1 lakh per copy, t3 fibs 4 lakhs per copy
Of course in India, nothing sells only pirated copies galore :)
I guess thats one of the reasons I am not too motivated. Even if I code all this stuff it'll be a major headache to market it.