Old short tatapower

Short tatapower again. It hit the final target of 520 ish last time on the way down.
Now Tatapower has res at 777-800, sl 800/820/864. Bearish trend on eod ends only on a close above 864, basically its not gonna happen anytime soon. So I suspect its time to sell this rally.
short for 724-699-687-656-640-625
If 525 old low breaks tatapower could test 480-430 region, but that will probably only happen in a panicky market and no real signs of that yet.
U.S Market is already down so tomorrow will be a gap down. I actually gave the short call on tatapower and rel today intraday around 760 but you can play your own levels.

Corrrection soon

Can't give the exact top, just look for a top on hourly charts.
Target 3000-2950-2900-2850
Major res at 3260
then at 3565-3640
problem with shorting up here is if you short too early you get stopped out
and then miss the real move down. so one can wait for hourly charts to confirm a top and then trade the charts with the proper stops

Market bottom done for now?

Look for inv hns and breakout setups on stocks this month.
Already gave hdil earlier it moved up early.
Its still 140+ but consolidating 148-156. Should touch 176 soon.
Next week more short covering in banks and realty since rbi just cut rates.

I will start posting bullish setups for nov/dec when I start seeing them. ex this punter lightweight stock coreprotec just blasted 20-40% in one day... Basically whatever breaks has to be bought now. Shorts are in trouble, squeeze the life out of them. Doesn't matter if its a punter who is short or if its a silly FII/hedge fund.

Bears will keep predicting 2100; they were right about 3600 and 2600 even 2300 but can we go lower?? Select stocks did touch nifty 2k equivalent lows, hell some stocks even went down to 2004 bull market lows. So yes the market is erratic but just because the indiv stocks went down doesn't mean the index will go down all the way..
Thats part of the beauty of diversification :)!

My favorite pick for the next bull market=RELinfra and second in line is rcom.
Rel moved up from 360-460 not bad right? but wait for 520-600-660 much more left.
Sure there will be more dips along the way but every dip is a buy in RELinfra.
Ex. Rel if it dips now on eod , lets say it goes to 520-660 and then dips. 99% chance in my view of a higher low, then u have inv hns and then you get explosion up later..... So basically bottom is done. If you wanna fight it be my guest.
Rcom will post chart soon when I see the setup. Might have a minor breakout above 227 but tough res near 234-244, then 260-270. Not sure if it will react harshly from 234 and then do the higher low so rcom is riskier. Results were damn good. profit growth vs expected drop. RCOm is trading near a p.e of 16, for a company thats gonna grow at 16-20-40% thats damn cheap.

CAT is on the 16th, 2 more weeks of studying then I'll get back to coding some really new and cool stuff :). Right now pretty erratic on the trading side.
I'm practicing with the old CATs. My scores have improved slighlty, I think I'm pretty close to the 99pctile mark in both GMAT and CAT now.

I took the Cat 2007: Got 128 vs around a required score of 100-120 for 1-6 iim calls
2005 cat: Got 64 vs 49 for IIM calls
Now I just need to get a 99pctile in the actual 2008 CAT.
Gotta work a bit more on my Quant/DI skills.
Anyway I think I really should make it into atleast MDI if not IIM. + I would be more comfy at MDI, its right here in Delhi . I'd like to clear the cutoff for IIM mostly for the bragging rights :).

REL 360 wolfe wave buy, target 500 , picture later, cmp 373

Keep in mind wolfe alone is not that powerful.
u need a level
360 is 3 year rel low.

Nifty 2304-2314 is late 2005 low
early 2005 low 2000-1950 area nifty
we wanna be long now
for atleast 3000-3600-3800
depending on timeframe

Titan double top target 680-572-543 weak below 930

Titan weak below 937 and 900 can touch 695-572
Results already out, nothing can save it, except a move above 1020

SBI HNS

Old hns big picture 1622-1562 broken supports
got retested now smaller picture hns breaks below 1368
Refer to old post:
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2008/06/just-charts-part-ii.html


Momentum will increase only below 1295
targets 1231-1165-1147-1100
panic low of july 1000 area ultimate target




P.S: Mind you I am bullish nifty 2950/2800/2600
These are humongous supports for nifty and we could get a 20-30% rally, I am bearish on sbi/tatapower.
Just be careful because a 'rising tide lifts all boats' to some extent anyway :)
2 more candidates for late lateef tops=hll/itc will post pics later.

Tatapower futures triangle upper TL res @ 800

HNS TARGET is around 620-560
old consolidations 660,570,508 (if tatapower had been trashed like nifty or rel it would be closer to 500 right now.


watch the res near 790-800 from the upper end of the triangle
Follow the technical levels
triangular action res: 800
my targets 670-600-550

tatapower p.e 20 ish
REL p.e 12 ish
tatapower bv: 426 ish
rel bv: 477
rel cmp 505
tatapower 790

i think the two will converge. only caveat: remember the saying the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Last excuse to short: bearish wolfe wave , though not a perfect one
Wolfe would predict a very sharp decline to 480 ish




Update:
Triangle developing as expected abcde all done now for breakout below 695-670 area
that will open up the targets of 567-565 and 527 (which is this triangle's technical target)

HDIL no idea about fundas but its breaking up.

technical breakout above 140/148
follow the action around 140-148 and try to play long.

looking for 175
HDIL, :17/10/08
Close: 125.65
T1: 136.158 T2: 157.707
T3: 192.865 1xR: 178.5
Tech Target: 190
Narrowsl: 101.00
WideSl: 76.97
SwingHigh: 139.8 CMP: 125.7
SwingLow: 89.5 SLPivot: 101.0
ImpulseTargetZone : 214.4-249.6
Lower Chan: 104.099 Upper Chan: 154.394
SupportLine: 104.099 ResLine: 126.799

Hindalco

4x earnings
birla group
book value 140
buy at 60-70 target 140 in 2-3 years
and maybe 200-210 in 5 if we get a boom in metals that early.

REL:Another large cap at book value: 477

Book value 477
Few years ago this stock formed a major bottom (All time low 360)
also happened to be near its book value at that time.

Granted fundas don't always work but they're much more likely to work with large caps than with mid/small caps.

rel eps=42
rock bottom valuations 420
as far as i know rel is flush with cash.

UMPP will require more cash but they've already done the rpower ipo for that so i'm guessing there is atleast a decent amount of cash with ambanis to execute a few power projects.

REL should head to 1000-2000 within 3-5 years

Nifty big Big levels, this is where you build up your portfolio for the next 5 years.

Expect broken support 3800 area to be retested if 3200-3000 holds.
Probably gonna tank once from there, so look for a short setup near 3800. If u.s goes through with the bailout then we might just rally through 3800 but otherwise I suspect it will give good res.

As for the longer term bull perspective
You can place your 1-2-3-4 wherever you like.
Just check the elliot osc, read up on bill will/aget etc. the basic idea is if elliot osc is pulling back to 0 line, then assume w4. If you have divergence and a lower high in elliot osc + a drop then w5 is over.

Simple stuff:
1-2, 3 big wave,
4th consolidation.....
but the 4th must end above wave 1 top...
Thats the key. w1 top = 2000/2004 highs near 2000-2100 nifty.

Fundamentally p.e of 10 for the stock market is pretty much the ground floor for large caps. (trailing 10x = 2250, forward 10x =2600 ish)
I already went all in on friday so I do have a bullish bias.
Some fresh FDs will mature in july or so , so until then I got nothing to do in the market.

Still studying for the CAT.
Still don't have that perfect 6pack..
I think I'll bulk up a bit more then cut back to get a lean muscular look.
Right now 1 rep max on the bench is 200 pounds, Goal is to take that up to 300.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12859029
My BMI is around 22, optimal bmi for my age group is 21.6. So I don't wanna drop too much weight, just wanna drop a bit of fat and replace it with muscle.
Might take a year or 2 to get in perfect shape.

Even my portfolio is a little chubby right now. I have way too much rcom. avg price 400 need to book half in a rally and diversify. The gap down 480 area is mega res and should hold in most rallies.

It might also take the market a year or 2 to get up to any real levels where people like me can earn a profit (I've made 2 major investments this year 4600 and 3200.., now I can't really buy any more and I sure as hell am not selling at a loss considering I am only 27. I can wait as long as it takes. In the long run I'll still outperform FDS.)

Favorite sectors: power, pharma, telecom, metals
If I can free up some more cash will buy REL
on friday I bought rcom/tisco/ranbaxy.

Mega cap at book value??

Tisco book value 300
I just bought @ 310.
eps around 64-70.
few years ago eps was as low as 40-50
Anyway
http://in.biz.yahoo.com/081009/203/6yfu1.html
arcelor expects ok numbers.
I don't and the market doesn't..
Steel stocks have crashed. More price drops to come but I think that tisco's profitability will go back to pre bull market levels..
Last time tisco was at 300 was when I started trading..
2004 ish.
So I think I'll just hold for 3-5 years and exit at a p.e of 10 around lets say 800-1000 rs.

Keep in mind bear markets are sharp violent affairs. especially near the end of local waves. I'm not saying nifty is done tanking but such a violent spike could lead to a profit taking/pullback rally maybe a consolidation between 3000-3600-3800. If we had held 3800 then 5k would have been my jan target but since we broke that. Jan target is around 4400 now.

Nifty strong support at 3300-3000-2800-2600
2600=ground floor
eps of nifty = 225
If anyone has estimates for fy2009 nifty/sensex earnings estimates, then please do leave a comment.
old estimates for nifty earnings would have been 20% eps growth
so 270 eps. or 2700 ground floor
but fresh estimates might be lower around 250-260?? I really don't know.
But if I had to pick an area then the break all your bank deposits and buy nifty
region would be 2300-2700.
10 times forward earnings (since current yield on a fixed deposit is around 10%)
(I still have some fds... all fds start getting broken if we touch 2800-2600 and 2300)

Market might touch 3900 in a panic

I have this weird hunch that 3900 will be retested.
Target for next bull market is 8-10k nifty.
almost 9 months done, maybe 3-9 months left in this bear market.

Still studying for the CAT so don't have much time to trade or post.
scoring around 80/300, 40/75 attempts, 60% accuracy.
and this is around 95th percentile...
need to get to around 100/300 to get into the 98-99 % area.
That should be good enough for iim/fms/mdi.

Very high probability of a bottom at 3824

3824 very very imp support also rising channel area 3900
keep an eye on these levels.
My view is bottom has been formed.

I've been out for a while, will probably be missing for a bit longer.
gotta study for the CAT
the interesting thing about the CAT is , just like the stock market u don't have to be 70-100% right to be the best.
a raw score of 50% on the cat will probably land you in the top 0.5% in India

The longer term rising trend channel

Lets hope this is only a Wave IV...
Even if it isn't and its a much bigger corrective wave.
Then we can hold this channel area and rally; maybe an x wave before more downside.

Look to buy

Buy nf 4260 sl below 4210
support is 4230 ish
Target is gap fill 4540-4580.
Source based + charts indicate very strong support at 4240-4230

Nifty downside targets if we sustain under 4430

Just targets for bears who were crazy enuff to hold their shorts below 4430.
4380-4240-4230-4189-4111-4063-3956-3900
3900-4000 is probably the next area where one would try counter trend long.
anything higher is significantly more risky.

Bulls might do best to take a break from the markets until we get some stability.

Short nifty on rallies

res 4640-4670 sl 4680
target 4530-4430
missed the early morning short...
The high of course was a fib level 4680.
Mentioned in previous post.

Right now intra 4565 nf support/4583 ish spot
gonna try to bounce from there get a lower hourly high then disaster for bulls.

Last few days the automated short setup didn't trigger. finally triggered today.
STOCK : S&P CNX NIFTY

Sell v4633.46, SL :4682.48, Tgt:4498.96
lets see if this one finally works out.
This is the machine.. not man :)
anyway its only 50% ish accurate.

Chess and markets

http://www.global-derivatives.com/download/files.php?func=download&id=129http://www.cs.vu.nl/~aske/db.html
http://www.chesscorner.com/games/deepblue/deepblu.htm

http://www.chess-analysis.com/chess-software/deep-blue.html

Do you think you could beat deep blue? or for that matter even some simple grandmaster level chess program?
What % of humans can beat a pc at chess?
What % of humans can beat a pc at trading?

Leave a comment.

Timepass predictions

Important warning. I never trade pure predictions.
Entry/sl has to come from intraday structure.
REsistance 4610-4640-4680 will hold
target 4430

support 4400-4430 will hold target 4720-4770
resistance 4770 will holdtarget 4480
market expire within 4400-4800 range most likely right in the middle 4600 ish.

Its just a script. we'll score it on the basis of number of turning points hit after one month.