Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Dow on FIRE!!!

Can we take that as a positive?
Another pullback rally possible?
Target for pullback rallies remain 3900-3971

Is liye 3570 ke aas paas bears ko bola tha
Hedge yourself
nf hit a low of 3580 or so in the recent downswing
i am fairly sure the 3800 put option would have traded for 200+
almost my 2x target dunno if the bears got an exit.

Anyway please refer to 2004 charts.
B waves can be ridiculously long affairs :).
IF bulls can regain 3700 level then we start a pullback once again
First target = gap fill nf gap down reads 3720-3750
nifty gap down reads 3760 or so.
Above 3700, 3720-3760 region
above 3760 3840-3900 region
Above 3900 max 3971.


Now just because we go to 3900-3971
I would not change my bearish view.
The key in a volatile+insane market is to remain hedged.
Bears who are hanging on to unhedged short positions need to come up with a plan quickly now.
For now market is roughly in a falling channel
wave a/1 down = 3900-375x, wave2/b=375x-382x
and right now falling channel reads maybe 3694 in price.
0.382 retrace which is typical for w4 reads 3700 in price.
the channel in price/time might be 3740 or something
dunno

If market is perky enough to give me 3900 then i wouldn't mind exiting some delivery and moving into more cash.


For now I continue to trade my short term trading system the one I mentioned in my last post. So it doesn't really matter, which way the trend is
I will make my money :). In fact the more lack of trend+higher the volatility the more i can make.
And for those who are interested , no the system is not for sale
reason a) code is unprotected
reason b) system has a lot of components + almost 1000 hours of testing+optimization so I'm not gonna sell it for 5000-10,000RS and I doubt anyone will pay 50,000 Rs for it :)
So until I get my lazy act together and copy protect the code, you can come to mahen's conference for the calls.

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