Monday, October 30, 2006

Nifty profit booking zone 3800-3870


What is the difference between a trader and an investor??
Investor buys and holds. Trader tries to enter/exit :)
Investors are super cycle degree traders. Intermediate degree traders will now be looking for some exits.

There are tons of technical/positional/swing traders out there who are following this particular analysis. Lots of positional traders who bought nifty near 3000-3200 want an exit near 3800 region.
Even if 3804-3857 is crossed a corrective dip of atleast 10% is on the cards.
Once the correction is out of the way then we will target 4100 which is my cycle degree channel and first reasonable target for wV of some degree.
it is still debatable whether we are in a corrective wave c rise (wave B of a flat or some other corrective pattern post the bottom at 2595). The beauty of fibonacci analysis is that t3 is overbought no matter how u look at it.
IF rise is w3 then dip of 10% and rally of another 20% possible.
If rise is wc of wave B then dip of >10% and rising channel would break.

Expectation was for 3800 by jan07. We seem to have gotten there a bit early. Choppy+sideways. First hint i am right would be tech breaking supports. Tech is the leader of this bull market not reliance as many bulls would like to think.
How much in % has reliance given to investors over the past 2 decades and how much has tech given?
Keep close tabs on cnx it in the coming sessions.

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