Tisco book value 300
I just bought @ 310.
eps around 64-70.
few years ago eps was as low as 40-50
Anyway
http://in.biz.yahoo.com/081009/203/6yfu1.html
arcelor expects ok numbers.
I don't and the market doesn't..
Steel stocks have crashed. More price drops to come but I think that tisco's profitability will go back to pre bull market levels..
Last time tisco was at 300 was when I started trading..
2004 ish.
So I think I'll just hold for 3-5 years and exit at a p.e of 10 around lets say 800-1000 rs.
Keep in mind bear markets are sharp violent affairs. especially near the end of local waves. I'm not saying nifty is done tanking but such a violent spike could lead to a profit taking/pullback rally maybe a consolidation between 3000-3600-3800. If we had held 3800 then 5k would have been my jan target but since we broke that. Jan target is around 4400 now.
Nifty strong support at 3300-3000-2800-2600
2600=ground floor
eps of nifty = 225
If anyone has estimates for fy2009 nifty/sensex earnings estimates, then please do leave a comment.
old estimates for nifty earnings would have been 20% eps growth
so 270 eps. or 2700 ground floor
but fresh estimates might be lower around 250-260?? I really don't know.
But if I had to pick an area then the break all your bank deposits and buy nifty
region would be 2300-2700.
10 times forward earnings (since current yield on a fixed deposit is around 10%)
(I still have some fds... all fds start getting broken if we touch 2800-2600 and 2300)
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3 comments:
hello boss,
i've chatted with you earlier,and i've asked you my doubt wheather nifty ended its 5th elliot wave at 6358.you said that its just the 3rd..my question now is it confirmed that nifty did its 5th at 6358..
and now did 50% retacement of entire rally...and in weekly i think bullish wolfe has confirmed in nifty..tgt can be around 500-700points from here..
then whtz up..Howz your prepartation for CAT going...
vsangeeth
Still studying for the CAT, english is going fine but I gotta work a lot more on the math.
As I discussed with you earlier, the confusing part (i.e the part where most people will disagree is the degree)
I'm still counting a wIV on the monthly chart just as I was counting earlier, the only difference is that the correction was definitely not a flat it just went sharp.
The reason I gave you last time was elliot osc (its only pulling back 5-34 on monthly check in aget or bill will template somewhere)
Refer to advanced get wave counts I am guessing it will agree with me with the count.
In fact the w4 of w III in my count is around 2600.
So thats like the ground floor both technically and fundamentally.
(remember I said wIII ended not WV
i.e larger degree W Vleft)
Anyway I don't know maybe we'll go below a p.e of 10x forward below 2600 and completely violate all my counts.
But I'm acting on my beliefs.
I put in every last bit of cash I had in large caps on friday
rcom, tisco,ranbaxy.
Didn't catch the day low or anything and I didn't even check the chart.
Just had a hunch that we had tanked enough and went with it.
Keep in mind the channel, 0.382-0.5 etc are only guidelines for a projected wiv low
you can go even to 0.618
if you go under w1 top then you definitely did a w5 because the most elementary Elliot wave rule is that w4 and 1 must not overlap.
2001-2004 tops , still very much intact and I don't think they will ever break. unless of course we do World war III or something nuts.
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