short rpl
few days ago news coverage construction of refinery
same pattern refer to essar oil 60 rs
Short sugar. also getting extensive coverage recently
anticnbc=antiretail.
since retail watches cnbc a lot.
right?
Saturday, March 31, 2007
New yahoo id
New yahoo id = niftytradersinc@yahoo.com
Also no msging on yahoo because I suspect yahoo is cracking down on mass messaging.
Also no msging on yahoo because I suspect yahoo is cracking down on mass messaging.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Bears are waiting but where??
At first i thought 3900 but bears might be overeager.
3820
3900
3971
4040
take your pick
one of these will hold
But the key point is 3220/2920/2600 is coming now.
april we might get a retest of 3570 min.
Liquidity continues to tighten
Another crr hike announced.
Be bullish at your own peril
Earlier 3760 gap up held
and bounced till 3820
3800 was regained but given the crr hike we might not do a retest of 3900.
My earlier view was that 3800 would be regained. (i.e one hurdle would be crossed, from support near 13 ema 3760 bounce, but res 3900 would probably hold, this time my vision was bulls in fast bikes, high flying jumping over hurdles
but they run into stationary bear trucks :))
translation to nifty levels 3760 13 ema would hold but 3900 would also hold or 3820 the gap down could hold because both of these can be considered stationary levels.
(moving averages are dynamic levels, while gaps/old highs/old lows are what i consider stationary levels)
a retracement within the first leg down
3900-375x will resist and set us up for a very nasty drop
Global cues would also be important
keep in mind last month's expiry near 3800 was purely a nifty option play
the 3800 put taken at 3900 doubled
then went right back to 0
those who booked profits quickly made money . those who got greedy got 0
Now the april puts: 3800 put for 115 is the reco
target is 230
sl is 115 price paid for put
reasoning is retest of 3570 is imminent.
and at 3570 the put would have 230 intrinsic value.
Also 3900 calls can be shorted for 70
Reasoning is 3900 is 0.5, 3961 is 0.618 and 3971 is also the collapse level for initial breakout to downside. refer to march 2004 charts the first rally to the big drop could not regain the initial downward breakout level.
hence 3900-3970 area is very stiff resistance and a monthly closing above that level is unlikely unless you believe this is a fresh bull market.
Any REAL bulls out there?
3820
3900
3971
4040
take your pick
one of these will hold
But the key point is 3220/2920/2600 is coming now.
april we might get a retest of 3570 min.
Liquidity continues to tighten
Another crr hike announced.
Be bullish at your own peril
Earlier 3760 gap up held
and bounced till 3820
3800 was regained but given the crr hike we might not do a retest of 3900.
My earlier view was that 3800 would be regained. (i.e one hurdle would be crossed, from support near 13 ema 3760 bounce, but res 3900 would probably hold, this time my vision was bulls in fast bikes, high flying jumping over hurdles
but they run into stationary bear trucks :))
translation to nifty levels 3760 13 ema would hold but 3900 would also hold or 3820 the gap down could hold because both of these can be considered stationary levels.
(moving averages are dynamic levels, while gaps/old highs/old lows are what i consider stationary levels)
a retracement within the first leg down
3900-375x will resist and set us up for a very nasty drop
Global cues would also be important
keep in mind last month's expiry near 3800 was purely a nifty option play
the 3800 put taken at 3900 doubled
then went right back to 0
those who booked profits quickly made money . those who got greedy got 0
Now the april puts: 3800 put for 115 is the reco
target is 230
sl is 115 price paid for put
reasoning is retest of 3570 is imminent.
and at 3570 the put would have 230 intrinsic value.
Also 3900 calls can be shorted for 70
Reasoning is 3900 is 0.5, 3961 is 0.618 and 3971 is also the collapse level for initial breakout to downside. refer to march 2004 charts the first rally to the big drop could not regain the initial downward breakout level.
hence 3900-3970 area is very stiff resistance and a monthly closing above that level is unlikely unless you believe this is a fresh bull market.
Any REAL bulls out there?
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Market gaps down (3760 support/3800 resistance)
Targets for april/may shorts still remain 3570-3440-3220-2920-2600 etc etc
Those who bought april puts should hold for atleast a retest of 3570
Failiure to cross 3800/3820 gap down will result in weakness
3760 support from gap up area.
below 3756 possibility of an island reversal top
supports 3737/3699/3574
below 3574 large C wave down type move begins.
first hint = 3800 holding (above 3800 u have an intermediate market bottom)
next hint=3756/3737/3699 breaking
dow jones equivalent breakout level = 12.3 k or so
also regained by bears today but keep an eye on it.
My hunch is that 3800 will be regained by bulls within 2 sessions and 3900 will be retested.
So keep an eye on dow breakout level and our breakout level as well.
Our intermediate bottom is negated below 3570. Bulls were screaming buy at 3830 :)
Where are they now??
Thats why at 3900 i was saying wait for the 50% retrace. The dip decides what comes next.
I still believe that 50/62% retrace of rise can hold. Just check pharma stocks they held their retracements and broke up today.
Strength is only above 3800/3820. So some bulls will be waiting for breakout.
Bears who shorted at 3900 probably holding with sl above 3900
We might look to the world again for world market 'sentiment'
all of europe was down today.
China was down today dropped a bit but ended on a new 52 week high.
We are unfortunately much weaker, any hint of weakness from world markets tomorrow and bulls will be in for a lot of pain.
3900-3971-4040 max upside remains after which sub 3570 levels are imminent.
So 3900 calls can probably be sold for 70-100 rs for april.
For now 3550-3900 range remains
I was hoping that 3760 would hold but market doesn't seem to be doing that right now.
So we gotta look at the retracement levels
in spot
Retracements :3574.3-3901.45
0.236:3824.24 0.382:3776.48
0.5 :3737.88 0.618:3699.27
0.786:3644.31
in nf
Retracements :3542.1-3904
0.236:3818.59 0.382:3765.75
0.5 :3723.05 0.618:3680.35
0.786:3619.55
Those who bought april puts should hold for atleast a retest of 3570
Failiure to cross 3800/3820 gap down will result in weakness
3760 support from gap up area.
below 3756 possibility of an island reversal top
supports 3737/3699/3574
below 3574 large C wave down type move begins.
first hint = 3800 holding (above 3800 u have an intermediate market bottom)
next hint=3756/3737/3699 breaking
dow jones equivalent breakout level = 12.3 k or so
also regained by bears today but keep an eye on it.
My hunch is that 3800 will be regained by bulls within 2 sessions and 3900 will be retested.
So keep an eye on dow breakout level and our breakout level as well.
Our intermediate bottom is negated below 3570. Bulls were screaming buy at 3830 :)
Where are they now??
Thats why at 3900 i was saying wait for the 50% retrace. The dip decides what comes next.
I still believe that 50/62% retrace of rise can hold. Just check pharma stocks they held their retracements and broke up today.
Strength is only above 3800/3820. So some bulls will be waiting for breakout.
Bears who shorted at 3900 probably holding with sl above 3900
We might look to the world again for world market 'sentiment'
all of europe was down today.
China was down today dropped a bit but ended on a new 52 week high.
We are unfortunately much weaker, any hint of weakness from world markets tomorrow and bulls will be in for a lot of pain.
3900-3971-4040 max upside remains after which sub 3570 levels are imminent.
So 3900 calls can probably be sold for 70-100 rs for april.
For now 3550-3900 range remains
I was hoping that 3760 would hold but market doesn't seem to be doing that right now.
So we gotta look at the retracement levels
in spot
Retracements :3574.3-3901.45
0.236:3824.24 0.382:3776.48
0.5 :3737.88 0.618:3699.27
0.786:3644.31
in nf
Retracements :3542.1-3904
0.236:3818.59 0.382:3765.75
0.5 :3723.05 0.618:3680.35
0.786:3619.55
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
World markets down a tad around 0.5-1%
Expect some initial weakness in nifty , if you get a gap down
then look to buy near 3770-3740
I think the march expiry target could be 3800
thats where max puts and calls probably are.
Dow jones reacted from 0.618 region
its still in a rising channel though so it might just be going for its old high.
China already did a new high.
Somehow I think our max is only 3971-4020 even if world markets continue strong.
From 3971-4020 its back down to 3570 for april/may.
Reliance/ongc might continue to show some isolated strength on crude being above 60$
If the puts purchased near 3900 double then exit thats the target for march puts
IF you bought april puts you can hold for a revisit of 3570
then look to buy near 3770-3740
I think the march expiry target could be 3800
thats where max puts and calls probably are.
Dow jones reacted from 0.618 region
its still in a rising channel though so it might just be going for its old high.
China already did a new high.
Somehow I think our max is only 3971-4020 even if world markets continue strong.
From 3971-4020 its back down to 3570 for april/may.
Reliance/ongc might continue to show some isolated strength on crude being above 60$
If the puts purchased near 3900 double then exit thats the target for march puts
IF you bought april puts you can hold for a revisit of 3570
Gap up support 3760
3900 was expected to be resistance area.
Sure enough it held
and sure enough cnbc was saying
'short term uptrend'
buy near 3830/3850+ sl 3800 target 3925
To be fair some analysts on cnbc were bearish and did say book profits and wait for first pullback to 3760 area. sensex level 12.xxx
3760 area gap up will hold
Sharp pullback possible
retest of 3800-3840-3900
market will stay in this range for a few more sessions
We might even test max res confluence area 3971 later
But ultimately in april 3656-3556 is expected to be revisited.
below 200 sma bears can take us to the lower c wave targets given earlier.
Sure enough it held
and sure enough cnbc was saying
'short term uptrend'
buy near 3830/3850+ sl 3800 target 3925
To be fair some analysts on cnbc were bearish and did say book profits and wait for first pullback to 3760 area. sensex level 12.xxx
3760 area gap up will hold
Sharp pullback possible
retest of 3800-3840-3900
market will stay in this range for a few more sessions
We might even test max res confluence area 3971 later
But ultimately in april 3656-3556 is expected to be revisited.
below 200 sma bears can take us to the lower c wave targets given earlier.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Going to the idea or letting the idea come to you?
Try this technique out.
Right before you fall asleep.
Close your eyes and think about the stock market.
Let your mind drift.
Only works if you have been watching the market for a while.
Works really well if you have been watching the screen/level II.
The reason you want to do this when you are tired is that your left brain /logical side will be shutting down.
The right brain has the ability to process millions of bits per second in the form of audio/video while the left brain while 'smart' and logical is fairly limited in its processing capabilities, maybe 16 bits at a time. the pathway in the left in terms of the data stream is narrow though speed can be improved with practice.
In the right brain the past the present and the future are all one. There is no concept of time. So if you do it right. You should get flooded with imagery/patterns/connections
Now your task is to translate the imagery into trading levels/prices/strategies.
The best is of course when your mind actually throws up the number at you
Those are the easiest trades.
Usually you will get complicated imagery, which then has to be translated into stock market action.
Right now I'm long on 3800 put for 20 could go to 40 if gap fill comes.
Lets see.
I never said i was a good trader. I am good at analyzing things.
The ability to keep an open mind and see the possibilities.
Thats my speciality
the problem is when you have too many possibilities which one do you act on???
Gonna try out some freshly optimized trading systems to try and solve this problem.
Annualized returns of almost 1000% percent possible on margin capital.
The system is based on shorting high with a small stop and covering back quickly.
Catches w5/wc tops and covers before internal test of w4 lows.
Will let you guys know how it goes later.
Right before you fall asleep.
Close your eyes and think about the stock market.
Let your mind drift.
Only works if you have been watching the market for a while.
Works really well if you have been watching the screen/level II.
The reason you want to do this when you are tired is that your left brain /logical side will be shutting down.
The right brain has the ability to process millions of bits per second in the form of audio/video while the left brain while 'smart' and logical is fairly limited in its processing capabilities, maybe 16 bits at a time. the pathway in the left in terms of the data stream is narrow though speed can be improved with practice.
In the right brain the past the present and the future are all one. There is no concept of time. So if you do it right. You should get flooded with imagery/patterns/connections
Now your task is to translate the imagery into trading levels/prices/strategies.
The best is of course when your mind actually throws up the number at you
Those are the easiest trades.
Usually you will get complicated imagery, which then has to be translated into stock market action.
Right now I'm long on 3800 put for 20 could go to 40 if gap fill comes.
Lets see.
I never said i was a good trader. I am good at analyzing things.
The ability to keep an open mind and see the possibilities.
Thats my speciality
the problem is when you have too many possibilities which one do you act on???
Gonna try out some freshly optimized trading systems to try and solve this problem.
Annualized returns of almost 1000% percent possible on margin capital.
The system is based on shorting high with a small stop and covering back quickly.
Catches w5/wc tops and covers before internal test of w4 lows.
Will let you guys know how it goes later.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Advanced Get and metastock data
My version of advanced get seemed to be having trouble with too many files in one folder.
Kept giving the error 'files are not a recognized version'
Solution=split files into multiple directories
Now works beautifully.
Aget by the way counting w4 pullback. Aget has this bad habit of not recognizing w3 until its too late. I think it assumes wc until c=a not broken decisively.
Anyway 50:50 zone first 3900 area should hold
Give us a pullback till maybe 3560-3900 ka 50%
then we can try higher.
Depending on how the bulls handle the fall we will be able to get some insight into what comes next: a new high or a new low.
Btw china broke up from flat consolidation and made a new high, Then again china never broke any swing lows chinese 3656 equivalent dec lows held in the correction.
Kept giving the error 'files are not a recognized version'
Solution=split files into multiple directories
Now works beautifully.
Aget by the way counting w4 pullback. Aget has this bad habit of not recognizing w3 until its too late. I think it assumes wc until c=a not broken decisively.
Anyway 50:50 zone first 3900 area should hold
Give us a pullback till maybe 3560-3900 ka 50%
then we can try higher.
Depending on how the bulls handle the fall we will be able to get some insight into what comes next: a new high or a new low.
Btw china broke up from flat consolidation and made a new high, Then again china never broke any swing lows chinese 3656 equivalent dec lows held in the correction.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Nifty wave5 next or Nifty wave 2/b pullback?
50:50 really
use options
from an ema perspective
falling weekly 13 ema = 3886, rising 13 ema = 3746
50% retrace of 3570-3887 reads 3717
if we go higher above 3887 then the 50% retracement target changes
In this world of 50:50 i would not bet on a big run away trend.
The earlier panic of japanese rate hikes+liquidity crunch is now lower because we have fed on hold which means extra liquidity splashing around.
Keep in mind Indian inflation problems.
Growth is fine, only concern is inflation and further hikes by the rbi
If rbi hikes again then u will see pressure on interest rate sensitives once again.
Autos/banks most sensitive to this stuff
and IT will be most resistant to declines in any bear moves.
The u.s , the dow and us.
Kapil Marwaha: dow nasdaq flat to down
Raja Kumar: yes
Raja Kumar: dow ran into 0.618
Raja Kumar: or will run in
Raja Kumar: soon
Raja Kumar: 12.49k
Raja Kumar: we're slightly weaker
Raja Kumar: see last time
Raja Kumar: dow did almost 0.5
Raja Kumar: we failed 0.382
Raja Kumar: this time dow might fail 0.618
Raja Kumar: we might fail 0.5
fact remains i don't know where the top will be 0.5/0.618 or 0.7?
maybe just a gap fill from 0.5.618??
and the bigger drop later?
gap fill target is 3760
truth is i don't know
hence i suggest buying put options for march target 3760 gap fill/50% retracement of initial rally (meaning no matter what the trend is 3556-xxxx wherever we stop. 50% retracement is insanely likely)
and for april potential target 3656-3570 retest
the stoploss is the price of the put option
the 3640 call taken at 80 rs already did both targets
100% and 200% gain
160/240 so that really should be sold now.
Raja Kumar: yes
Raja Kumar: dow ran into 0.618
Raja Kumar: or will run in
Raja Kumar: soon
Raja Kumar: 12.49k
Raja Kumar: we're slightly weaker
Raja Kumar: see last time
Raja Kumar: dow did almost 0.5
Raja Kumar: we failed 0.382
Raja Kumar: this time dow might fail 0.618
Raja Kumar: we might fail 0.5
fact remains i don't know where the top will be 0.5/0.618 or 0.7?
maybe just a gap fill from 0.5.618??
and the bigger drop later?
gap fill target is 3760
truth is i don't know
hence i suggest buying put options for march target 3760 gap fill/50% retracement of initial rally (meaning no matter what the trend is 3556-xxxx wherever we stop. 50% retracement is insanely likely)
and for april potential target 3656-3570 retest
the stoploss is the price of the put option
the 3640 call taken at 80 rs already did both targets
100% and 200% gain
160/240 so that really should be sold now.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
2 steps ahead of the market still??
wave a up of B from 3556 low - 3800
wave b down of B from 3800-3570 ish
wave c up in progress
bearish count, only short under 3840
initial target gap fill till 3760 then lower depending on how the gap up area behaves.
aggressive traders will short near 3860 nf upper end of gap down for a gap fill
I'm tempted to wait for 3900
Just a note of caution
in 2004 wave B up did 70% retracement
corresponding level reads 4032 nifty right now
wave b down of B from 3800-3570 ish
wave c up in progress
bearish count, only short under 3840
initial target gap fill till 3760 then lower depending on how the gap up area behaves.
aggressive traders will short near 3860 nf upper end of gap down for a gap fill
I'm tempted to wait for 3900
Just a note of caution
in 2004 wave B up did 70% retracement
corresponding level reads 4032 nifty right now
Dow breaks out
Dow breaks out above 12.3k+ after fed didn't hike
This usually happens and global equity markets usually use this as an excuse to rally.
This pattern has worked last 10 times.
we should try 3775/3800 breakout
3840-3900 targets
Bhel 2100-2200 range
baxy 330-340 range
rcom 416-434-440 range
Remember the slightly longer term view.
50-70% retracement of entire fall
and then more downsides
The alternate bullish possibility is that 3556 will hold and 4440 will come
3900 or so is where i would hunt for positional shorts regardless of what cnbc analysts are saying
remember cnbc was saying don't catch this falling knife at 200 dma
I mean we buy the year around
every day everyone reccomends a buy
and then at the moment of reckoning
when nifty pulls back to 200 dma for the first time in the year you can't reccomend a buy??
How silly is that?? Everyone who bought the year around is sitting long with avg price of 200 dma in their portfolio. If you take us below 200 dma then there are no profits too book!!!!!
remember 2004 top
Tops take a while to form I expect a c wave to the downside but this B wave sideways could take a long long time.
3840-3900-3940 are likely
bulls will only hit the panic button below the 200 dma thats when we have to worry about stuff like lower circuit.
If you don't like predicting nifty
then use a proper trend following system
7/105 on 10 mins or 7/105 on hourly are both suitable
http://niftytraders.blogspot.com
This usually happens and global equity markets usually use this as an excuse to rally.
This pattern has worked last 10 times.
we should try 3775/3800 breakout
3840-3900 targets
Bhel 2100-2200 range
baxy 330-340 range
rcom 416-434-440 range
Remember the slightly longer term view.
50-70% retracement of entire fall
and then more downsides
The alternate bullish possibility is that 3556 will hold and 4440 will come
3900 or so is where i would hunt for positional shorts regardless of what cnbc analysts are saying
remember cnbc was saying don't catch this falling knife at 200 dma
I mean we buy the year around
every day everyone reccomends a buy
and then at the moment of reckoning
when nifty pulls back to 200 dma for the first time in the year you can't reccomend a buy??
How silly is that?? Everyone who bought the year around is sitting long with avg price of 200 dma in their portfolio. If you take us below 200 dma then there are no profits too book!!!!!
remember 2004 top
Tops take a while to form I expect a c wave to the downside but this B wave sideways could take a long long time.
3840-3900-3940 are likely
bulls will only hit the panic button below the 200 dma thats when we have to worry about stuff like lower circuit.
If you don't like predicting nifty
then use a proper trend following system
7/105 on 10 mins or 7/105 on hourly are both suitable
http://niftytraders.blogspot.com
Nifty about to begin wc/w3 type move
3800+ breakout begins
might be a fake upmove but probably best to stick with longs 3840-3900-3930 target
right now 13 ema support 3720
21 ema res 3775
2 important levels to watch for for next few days.
Earlier triangle broke down and we did 3570 target to downside.
Now we can get a wc/w3 type breakout which can do my old target of 3900
which is 50% retracement of entire fall.
If you wanna be a mega bear then 3800-3840 are your key resistances.
If a mild bear then 3900
if a mega bull then a new high is always possible :)
Panic selling below 200 dma which reads 3570 ish
might be a fake upmove but probably best to stick with longs 3840-3900-3930 target
right now 13 ema support 3720
21 ema res 3775
2 important levels to watch for for next few days.
Earlier triangle broke down and we did 3570 target to downside.
Now we can get a wc/w3 type breakout which can do my old target of 3900
which is 50% retracement of entire fall.
If you wanna be a mega bear then 3800-3840 are your key resistances.
If a mild bear then 3900
if a mega bull then a new high is always possible :)
Panic selling below 200 dma which reads 3570 ish
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
cnbc is run by *****!!!
cnbc= sell potato at y rs buy at x rs, gain of 9k rs on 11k investment???
a) trading !=investing
b) they should be saying risk of 3k, reward of 9k or something
Based on the the advised stoploss for the trade.
But this is Indian tv a lot like the chat rooms/technical analysts on yahoo
pure brilliance.
a) trading !=investing
b) they should be saying risk of 3k, reward of 9k or something
Based on the the advised stoploss for the trade.
But this is Indian tv a lot like the chat rooms/technical analysts on yahoo
pure brilliance.
Nifty watch res near 13/21 ema , select stocks might breakout
3800/3840 nifty for breakouts to upside+ bottom confirmation
Dow jones if flat correction then 11.9 should hold and 12.3k should break
Fomc meeting tonight
Usually when fed stays flat we get a trong upmove.
already damn close to gap down res 3700-3720 if cleared then 3780-3800-3840
Pharma is looking good to me.
Eod short term bottom levels are being reconquered in pharma.
Ranbaxy above 340 will go back to 375-400
Seems like baxy is out of the merck acquisition race. big positive for baxy.
Orchid is already challenging 270 again above 270, 293/300/320 region
Divis is above 2900 again
watch the 13/21 ema res area carefully when trading long on all pharma
Same on nifty has not been retaken yet completely. We are still facing solid res at 13 ema
Dow jones if flat correction then 11.9 should hold and 12.3k should break
Fomc meeting tonight
Usually when fed stays flat we get a trong upmove.
already damn close to gap down res 3700-3720 if cleared then 3780-3800-3840
Pharma is looking good to me.
Eod short term bottom levels are being reconquered in pharma.
Ranbaxy above 340 will go back to 375-400
Seems like baxy is out of the merck acquisition race. big positive for baxy.
Orchid is already challenging 270 again above 270, 293/300/320 region
Divis is above 2900 again
watch the 13/21 ema res area carefully when trading long on all pharma
Same on nifty has not been retaken yet completely. We are still facing solid res at 13 ema
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Strong stocks on ema scans
Pharma longs can probably be hedged by shorting cipla.
which looks quite weak.
Weakness might be connected to interest in acquiring merck.
Cipla+ranbaxy are still in from what I have heard while dr.red is out of the race.
Going by recent history, indian stocks which ended up 'overpaying' as defined by subsequent downtrend in stock prices :) since i have no other means of calculating the fundas.
Tatatea,tisco,hindalco
Dr. red rallied like crazy when it acquired betapharm. So i guess there are always two sides to the coin.
Cipla has support near 209-215 and res near 231-234-241.
Can test 208/203/200/193/163 if it turns weak.
Downmove would gain momentum below 220.
List of strong stocks
IPCL in particular looks interesting.
News driven ipcl holders to get reliance shares?
5:1 would mean ipcl should trade at 1300/5=260
at 4:1 ipcl would trade at 325
one could in theory lock in gains buy buying ipcl cash and shorting reliance futures if one knew for sure that the deal was going to be concluded and the share ratio.
Ticker Date/Time C EMA1 EMA2 EMA3 EMA4 ts pb ValueRisk ATR Im1 Im2 R/R BIm1 BIm2
DRREDDY 3/16/2007 683.60 666.94 677.62 719.99 731.40 -11 2 0.88 4.21 1 0 4.77 0 51
IPCL 3/16/2007 260.45 258.38 260.01 271.64 275.61 -11 3 0.17 4.71 1 0 27.94 0 47
MTNL 3/16/2007 142.05 141.60 143.05 147.86 149.05 -19 1 -0.70 5.07 1 0 7.25 0 29
NICOLASPIR 3/16/2007 231.15 227.99 230.87 242.55 242.34 -11 2 0.12 5.71 1 0 46.57 0 37
TVSMOTOR 3/16/2007 61.45 60.50 62.56 72.16 79.70 -19 1 -1.78 5.54 1 0 3.12 0 104
WOCKPHARMA 3/16/2007 364.25 365.42 362.09 359.96 364.63 -13 2 0.60 4.54 0 0 7.60 6 5
Wockhardt looks like its in a lot of triangles should break up after consolidation
dr.red looks like inv hns could break up
tvs motor might be forming a bottom near 54 but a retest of 54 is likely (its a 2 year low for tvs). So tvs might be a short as soon as it shows any weakness
which looks quite weak.
Weakness might be connected to interest in acquiring merck.
Cipla+ranbaxy are still in from what I have heard while dr.red is out of the race.
Going by recent history, indian stocks which ended up 'overpaying' as defined by subsequent downtrend in stock prices :) since i have no other means of calculating the fundas.
Tatatea,tisco,hindalco
Dr. red rallied like crazy when it acquired betapharm. So i guess there are always two sides to the coin.
Cipla has support near 209-215 and res near 231-234-241.
Can test 208/203/200/193/163 if it turns weak.
Downmove would gain momentum below 220.
List of strong stocks
IPCL in particular looks interesting.
News driven ipcl holders to get reliance shares?
5:1 would mean ipcl should trade at 1300/5=260
at 4:1 ipcl would trade at 325
one could in theory lock in gains buy buying ipcl cash and shorting reliance futures if one knew for sure that the deal was going to be concluded and the share ratio.
Ticker Date/Time C EMA1 EMA2 EMA3 EMA4 ts pb ValueRisk ATR Im1 Im2 R/R BIm1 BIm2
DRREDDY 3/16/2007 683.60 666.94 677.62 719.99 731.40 -11 2 0.88 4.21 1 0 4.77 0 51
IPCL 3/16/2007 260.45 258.38 260.01 271.64 275.61 -11 3 0.17 4.71 1 0 27.94 0 47
MTNL 3/16/2007 142.05 141.60 143.05 147.86 149.05 -19 1 -0.70 5.07 1 0 7.25 0 29
NICOLASPIR 3/16/2007 231.15 227.99 230.87 242.55 242.34 -11 2 0.12 5.71 1 0 46.57 0 37
TVSMOTOR 3/16/2007 61.45 60.50 62.56 72.16 79.70 -19 1 -1.78 5.54 1 0 3.12 0 104
WOCKPHARMA 3/16/2007 364.25 365.42 362.09 359.96 364.63 -13 2 0.60 4.54 0 0 7.60 6 5
Wockhardt looks like its in a lot of triangles should break up after consolidation
dr.red looks like inv hns could break up
tvs motor might be forming a bottom near 54 but a retest of 54 is likely (its a 2 year low for tvs). So tvs might be a short as soon as it shows any weakness
Pharma looking strong in a weak market
Lots of pharma stocks showing strength.
Orchid/dr.red look interesting.
Check bse health, seems closer to its trendline than sensex.
Orchid watch 235+ for continuation of upmove
weak below 245
Dr.red can recover till 700-720 if it holds above 680 intraday
Cements=weakest, sell on every rally mode in cements but i think some of them will be approaching may parallel channels , u might see some bounce from the channel even if the down move continues later.
Orchid/dr.red look interesting.
Check bse health, seems closer to its trendline than sensex.
Orchid watch 235+ for continuation of upmove
weak below 245
Dr.red can recover till 700-720 if it holds above 680 intraday
Cements=weakest, sell on every rally mode in cements but i think some of them will be approaching may parallel channels , u might see some bounce from the channel even if the down move continues later.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
New Yahoo id
Yahoo has been acting up
first i lost rajak1981
Then made raja_kumar_1981
lost that and rajak1981 started working
Now on to my third id Niftytradersinc@yahoo.com
first i lost rajak1981
Then made raja_kumar_1981
lost that and rajak1981 started working
Now on to my third id Niftytradersinc@yahoo.com
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Nifty in a triangle like may 2006 13 ema 3800 res
Follow the falling tide 13 ema: 3800
its down
time to sell
Triangles usually give trend continuations , but be wary of this one.
It can break in either direction
above 3800-3840-3900 as anticipated earlier
below 3700, 3676/3570
below 3556-3440-3330-3220-2920
@ 2920 be fully invested+long regardless of what cnbc is saying
Can look to buy 3700 puts if triangle breaks down.
Should double/tripple within a few days.
its down
time to sell
Triangles usually give trend continuations , but be wary of this one.
It can break in either direction
above 3800-3840-3900 as anticipated earlier
below 3700, 3676/3570
below 3556-3440-3330-3220-2920
@ 2920 be fully invested+long regardless of what cnbc is saying
Can look to buy 3700 puts if triangle breaks down.
Should double/tripple within a few days.
Thursday, March 08, 2007
Trying to stay 2 steps ahead of the market
Time to start moving to cash in stocks which u do not truly understand and don't want to stay invested in for 2 years+
A wave down done it was ugly
people panicked.
Just when people were too afraid to enter and we had a second gap down (exhaustion)
bottom formed at 3553 200 dma
What do i expect??
do u really wanna know?
its not pretty the way i see it
go back to your nifty charts 1/30/2004
2 months down from 2014 to 1670
1670/2014*4240
3510 we did only 3553
thats a down , then 1 month up
almost a 70% retracement!!
(1912-1670)/(2014-1670)=70%
Where are we right now?
we're gonna do a retracement now which is my wave B
maybe we are in wave a of B or something right now
"7) "B" waves — "B" waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" (Dow Theory is covered in Lesson 28) by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market," chances are it's a "B" wave."
from precther's book
"8) "C" waves — Declining "C" waves are usually devastating in their destruction. They are third waves and have most of the properties of third waves. It is during this decline that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. The illusions held throughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and fear takes over. "C" waves are persistent and broad. 1930-1932 was a "C" wave. 1962 was a "C" wave. 1969-1970 and 1973-1974 can be classified as "C" waves. Advancing "C" waves within upward corrections in larger bear markets are just as dynamic and can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing, especially since they unfold in five waves. The October 1973 rally (see Figure 1-37), for instance, was a "C" wave in an inverted expanded flat correction. "
Worst case levels already given earlier. 2920 is my value area for nifty
out there i am a buyer regardless of what your technicals tell u
most widely accepted targets for hypothetical c wave if it comes
3440-3330-3220-2920-2600
c wave only begins below 3553/200 dma
until then no reason to hit the panic button
For now we trade long and try to hit 3840-3900 region
A wave down done it was ugly
people panicked.
Just when people were too afraid to enter and we had a second gap down (exhaustion)
bottom formed at 3553 200 dma
What do i expect??
do u really wanna know?
its not pretty the way i see it
go back to your nifty charts 1/30/2004
2 months down from 2014 to 1670
1670/2014*4240
3510 we did only 3553
thats a down , then 1 month up
almost a 70% retracement!!
(1912-1670)/(2014-1670)=70%
Where are we right now?
we're gonna do a retracement now which is my wave B
maybe we are in wave a of B or something right now
"7) "B" waves — "B" waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" (Dow Theory is covered in Lesson 28) by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market," chances are it's a "B" wave."
from precther's book
"8) "C" waves — Declining "C" waves are usually devastating in their destruction. They are third waves and have most of the properties of third waves. It is during this decline that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. The illusions held throughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and fear takes over. "C" waves are persistent and broad. 1930-1932 was a "C" wave. 1962 was a "C" wave. 1969-1970 and 1973-1974 can be classified as "C" waves. Advancing "C" waves within upward corrections in larger bear markets are just as dynamic and can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing, especially since they unfold in five waves. The October 1973 rally (see Figure 1-37), for instance, was a "C" wave in an inverted expanded flat correction. "
Worst case levels already given earlier. 2920 is my value area for nifty
out there i am a buyer regardless of what your technicals tell u
most widely accepted targets for hypothetical c wave if it comes
3440-3330-3220-2920-2600
c wave only begins below 3553/200 dma
until then no reason to hit the panic button
For now we trade long and try to hit 3840-3900 region
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