CAT 2008 final score 99.36 pctile

Weak score in quant even though I am not weak in mathematics per se.
Final verdict : I need to improve my time management skills.

1-2 fewer questions in DI and 1-2 extra questions in quant would have meant IIM A, C and K.
I actually spent 40 mins english, 1 hr DI and 50 mins quant.
40/50/1hr or 40/55/55 would have done the trick.

Cues negative, world down a tad, iip expected to come in lower

Key question: Can we hold the supports with the weak cues?
hourly charts might top out below 2870 ish
below that 2830/2800/2770/2700
We really need to hold 2830 to keep the breakout/momentum intact on the short term charts.

Bears are gonna have a field day today with all the negatives.
What I want to see is whether we can rally post the weak IIP
if we can then we have a good chance of going higher until then ultra short term looking to short.

Also keep an eye on REL to see if it can clear 626 that will be a sign of things to come
triangle or abc.

Nifty chart analysis

3 charts for nifty dec series.
Invhns type of move forming for bulls
for bears maybe a triangle and they'll keep trying to short on the way up finding every level/resistance as an excuse.

My view? 3260+ likely
HSI did it
dow almost doing it.

And guess which stock is leading the rally in nifty??
REL...
much closer to old high 626 cmp 606 ish.

Power sector remains my favorite sector, fundamental reasons.
So for anyone who says technicals precede fundamentals. Think again.

Rel was damn 'weak' at 360-400 (relative to nifty)
now its 'strong'.




I need to find some kind of economic calendar for India so I can be prepared ahead of time for the major data releases.
If anyone has an idea, leave a link.

For the u.s there are lots of sites with good coverage.
Need something similar for India.
I wonder why cnbc tv 18/moneycontrol don't have any organized section
they added the indiaearnings site which is a good step. They should also add something along the lines of an economic calendar.

REL Inv hns

Rel inv hns breakout above 626 but strong above 470
play long target 520-540-580-626-666-726
sl below 470

BHEL

strong above 1324 sl 1300
target 1355-1370-1456-1550
Chart later: feeling lazy.

Still stuck on the CAT....

Spent more time on cat 2008 analysis
I guess scores vary a bit depending on which answer key is used!!
TIME: 29/45/66 total 140 required 18/28/42/120
Career Forum: 29/45/66 total 140 vs required cutoffs 28/32/46/116
IMS: 29/45/66 total 140 vs required cutoffs 32/32/46/120
CL: 29/45/56 total 130 vs required 30/26/44/121
PT: 29/45/66 total 140 vs 39/29/47/115

I think clearing the cutoff means 1 call and every 4 pts above the cutoff could mean one additional call.
Usually 24 pts above the cutoff would mean almost all calls.
Screwed by quant I suspect... I probably have the basic cutoff for all iim's except A/C
Lets see what happens.

Anyway, getting back to trading: I will post a good chart soon , I promise :)
Just waiting for REL to confirm eod low.
I don't wanna analyze 20 stocks and make 50 trades. I just want one big move for december.
Its the big inv hns patterns/double bottoms etc that I talked about earlier; REL will give the best setup of all.

CAT 2008 written test is over, but I'm still not quite over it.

                      QA DI EU OVERALL 
Your Score            29 45 56 130 
Predicted CAT %ile    87.62 97.56 99.4 98.48 

I can't quite seem to get over the 98.4 pctilish score in CAT 2008. another 45 seconds/1-2 questions in Quant could have meant IIM A/B/C.
Cutoff for iim means around 97.5 pctile barely enough for iim i/k/l
a/c take in much higher scores 98.5-99.5pctile
(Even harvard takes in 95-98 pctile .... but india. of course.. 99.9999999 is what u need to win out here)

iim-b I guess is the exception as it pays more attention to work exp in its selection process.
Unfortunately for me. full time trading for 2 solid years counts as 0 years of work ex!!!
I wonder who would make a better asset manager 3 years from now:
Someone who spent 2 years in a cubicle at tcs/infy and then did an mba finance from iim??
Or someone who actually watched almost every tick for atleast 2 years, studied almost every significant theory on trading the markets and watched/traded one full bull/bear swing.

I think the avg placement salaries are bothering me along with possibly missing out on the 'iim' brand.

IMI avg : 9.89 lakhs, pctile : 94
IMT avg placement: 12 lakhs, pctile 95
Mdi/SPJain avg placement: 12.5/13.5 lakhs, pctile 96-97 (spjain pays more attention to work ex)
IIM I/K/L: 15 lakhs pctile 98-99
IIM A/B/C: 17.5 lakhs pctile 99 (iim b pays attention to workex)

I gotta take a break of some sort to get my mind off the CAT.

U.S bailout package

Keep an eye on news about the U.S 700 billion dollar relief/bailout package.
I have a hunch that some news on this front will will seal the lows for 2008.

Raja vs Cat 2008

According to CL:
For atleast one IIM call:
QA:30
LRDI:26
EU:44
Overall cut-off:120

CAT 08
Name : RAJA  Booklet No.: 222
Total Attempts: 55  Total Correct : 37
QA  LRDI  EU  Total
29  45  56  130.0

Cutoff i.e 97.5 ish percenile 120-125
130 is probably around 98-98.5 percentile..
99 would have been nicer but oh well

Anyway this is all theoretical: final results sometime in Jan: Still going to need some serious luck to get an IIM (A/B/C) Call. Most likely will get calls from some one/2 of iim i/k/l and mdi/spjain/imt/imi.

http://time4education.com/cat2008/catanalysis_home.asp
http://edutalkindia.blogspot.com/2007/07/mba-cutoff-through-cat-score.html

I love the comment by Time4education:The set on ‘Share prices’ would have stumped anyone who dared to get into it.

The set involved analyzing intraday trading strategies of some fictitious characters and figuring out
a) who made profits if prices did xyz
b) what prices did based on which fictitious character's strategy made profits
Guess how I did on that set :D

Rcom might move up

Pure hunch support 220-215.
Can touch 260-270

UPDATE: target 251.. 260-270 area bonus.
res levels on fib 231/237/242/249

Old short tatapower

Short tatapower again. It hit the final target of 520 ish last time on the way down.
Now Tatapower has res at 777-800, sl 800/820/864. Bearish trend on eod ends only on a close above 864, basically its not gonna happen anytime soon. So I suspect its time to sell this rally.
short for 724-699-687-656-640-625
If 525 old low breaks tatapower could test 480-430 region, but that will probably only happen in a panicky market and no real signs of that yet.
U.S Market is already down so tomorrow will be a gap down. I actually gave the short call on tatapower and rel today intraday around 760 but you can play your own levels.

Corrrection soon

Can't give the exact top, just look for a top on hourly charts.
Target 3000-2950-2900-2850
Major res at 3260
then at 3565-3640
problem with shorting up here is if you short too early you get stopped out
and then miss the real move down. so one can wait for hourly charts to confirm a top and then trade the charts with the proper stops

Market bottom done for now?

Look for inv hns and breakout setups on stocks this month.
Already gave hdil earlier it moved up early.
Its still 140+ but consolidating 148-156. Should touch 176 soon.
Next week more short covering in banks and realty since rbi just cut rates.

I will start posting bullish setups for nov/dec when I start seeing them. ex this punter lightweight stock coreprotec just blasted 20-40% in one day... Basically whatever breaks has to be bought now. Shorts are in trouble, squeeze the life out of them. Doesn't matter if its a punter who is short or if its a silly FII/hedge fund.

Bears will keep predicting 2100; they were right about 3600 and 2600 even 2300 but can we go lower?? Select stocks did touch nifty 2k equivalent lows, hell some stocks even went down to 2004 bull market lows. So yes the market is erratic but just because the indiv stocks went down doesn't mean the index will go down all the way..
Thats part of the beauty of diversification :)!

My favorite pick for the next bull market=RELinfra and second in line is rcom.
Rel moved up from 360-460 not bad right? but wait for 520-600-660 much more left.
Sure there will be more dips along the way but every dip is a buy in RELinfra.
Ex. Rel if it dips now on eod , lets say it goes to 520-660 and then dips. 99% chance in my view of a higher low, then u have inv hns and then you get explosion up later..... So basically bottom is done. If you wanna fight it be my guest.
Rcom will post chart soon when I see the setup. Might have a minor breakout above 227 but tough res near 234-244, then 260-270. Not sure if it will react harshly from 234 and then do the higher low so rcom is riskier. Results were damn good. profit growth vs expected drop. RCOm is trading near a p.e of 16, for a company thats gonna grow at 16-20-40% thats damn cheap.

CAT is on the 16th, 2 more weeks of studying then I'll get back to coding some really new and cool stuff :). Right now pretty erratic on the trading side.
I'm practicing with the old CATs. My scores have improved slighlty, I think I'm pretty close to the 99pctile mark in both GMAT and CAT now.

I took the Cat 2007: Got 128 vs around a required score of 100-120 for 1-6 iim calls
2005 cat: Got 64 vs 49 for IIM calls
Now I just need to get a 99pctile in the actual 2008 CAT.
Gotta work a bit more on my Quant/DI skills.
Anyway I think I really should make it into atleast MDI if not IIM. + I would be more comfy at MDI, its right here in Delhi . I'd like to clear the cutoff for IIM mostly for the bragging rights :).

REL 360 wolfe wave buy, target 500 , picture later, cmp 373

Keep in mind wolfe alone is not that powerful.
u need a level
360 is 3 year rel low.

Nifty 2304-2314 is late 2005 low
early 2005 low 2000-1950 area nifty
we wanna be long now
for atleast 3000-3600-3800
depending on timeframe

Titan double top target 680-572-543 weak below 930

Titan weak below 937 and 900 can touch 695-572
Results already out, nothing can save it, except a move above 1020

SBI HNS

Old hns big picture 1622-1562 broken supports
got retested now smaller picture hns breaks below 1368
Refer to old post:
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2008/06/just-charts-part-ii.html


Momentum will increase only below 1295
targets 1231-1165-1147-1100
panic low of july 1000 area ultimate target




P.S: Mind you I am bullish nifty 2950/2800/2600
These are humongous supports for nifty and we could get a 20-30% rally, I am bearish on sbi/tatapower.
Just be careful because a 'rising tide lifts all boats' to some extent anyway :)
2 more candidates for late lateef tops=hll/itc will post pics later.

Tatapower futures triangle upper TL res @ 800

HNS TARGET is around 620-560
old consolidations 660,570,508 (if tatapower had been trashed like nifty or rel it would be closer to 500 right now.


watch the res near 790-800 from the upper end of the triangle
Follow the technical levels
triangular action res: 800
my targets 670-600-550

tatapower p.e 20 ish
REL p.e 12 ish
tatapower bv: 426 ish
rel bv: 477
rel cmp 505
tatapower 790

i think the two will converge. only caveat: remember the saying the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Last excuse to short: bearish wolfe wave , though not a perfect one
Wolfe would predict a very sharp decline to 480 ish




Update:
Triangle developing as expected abcde all done now for breakout below 695-670 area
that will open up the targets of 567-565 and 527 (which is this triangle's technical target)

HDIL no idea about fundas but its breaking up.

technical breakout above 140/148
follow the action around 140-148 and try to play long.

looking for 175
HDIL, :17/10/08
Close: 125.65
T1: 136.158 T2: 157.707
T3: 192.865 1xR: 178.5
Tech Target: 190
Narrowsl: 101.00
WideSl: 76.97
SwingHigh: 139.8 CMP: 125.7
SwingLow: 89.5 SLPivot: 101.0
ImpulseTargetZone : 214.4-249.6
Lower Chan: 104.099 Upper Chan: 154.394
SupportLine: 104.099 ResLine: 126.799

Hindalco

4x earnings
birla group
book value 140
buy at 60-70 target 140 in 2-3 years
and maybe 200-210 in 5 if we get a boom in metals that early.

REL:Another large cap at book value: 477

Book value 477
Few years ago this stock formed a major bottom (All time low 360)
also happened to be near its book value at that time.

Granted fundas don't always work but they're much more likely to work with large caps than with mid/small caps.

rel eps=42
rock bottom valuations 420
as far as i know rel is flush with cash.

UMPP will require more cash but they've already done the rpower ipo for that so i'm guessing there is atleast a decent amount of cash with ambanis to execute a few power projects.

REL should head to 1000-2000 within 3-5 years